Nfp - Profitable Trading Strategies - Trading Systems

krelian99 2015.07.02 12:23 #1

When I read about news-trading, I always see the following top two no-gos:

Don't trade before FOMC.
Stay out when there is NFP.

Why? They are absolutely unpredictable. That's what books say and I decided to comply with them.

Beige Book - USA Conclusion Group of OnTester events

myname 2015.07.02 12:58 #2

Try using pending orders - buy stop and sell stop close enough to the current price before the news, with take profit set to some not too big value. That can give you an opportunity for a quick scalping - just make sure that if one gets filled, you have to delete the other (there are some problems with expiration times in new builds, you have to delete the remaining pending order manually or using some script or ea)

Managing Pending Orders - Managing Pending Orders - Request Execution - Opening

thenews 2015.10.01 06:58 #3

EUR/USD: Trading the US Nonfarm Employment Change

US Nonfarm Employment Change measures the change in the number of newly employed people in the US, excluding workers in the farming industry. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar. Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for EUR/USD.

Indicator Background

Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. The release of US Non-Farm Employment Change is highly anticipated by the markets, and an unexpected reading can affect the direction of EUR/USD.

Nonfarm Employment Change disappointed in August, slipping to 173 thousand, well short of the estimate of 215 thousand. This marked a 5-month low for the key indicator. The markets are expecting a strong rebound in September, with a forecast for 202 thousand.

Sentiment and Levels

Monetary policy divergence is likely to continue weighing on the euro. With both the ECB and the Fed sounding more hawkish than expected, this means ongoing euro printing from the ECB and a rate hike in 2015 from the Fed, and this supports a drop. The weak inflation figures in the euro-area could serve as a reminder that the ECB may have to provide additional stimulus. So, the overall sentiment remains bearish on EUR/USD towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 1.1373, 1.13, 1.1215, 1.1113, 1.1050 and 1.0950.

5 Scenarios

Within expectations: 198K to 206K. In such a scenario, the EUR/USD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
Above expectations: 207K to 212K: An unexpected higher reading could send the pair below one support line.
Well above expectations: Above 212K: Such an outcome could push the pair lower and two or more support lines could fall as a result.
Below expectations: 192K to 197K: A weaker reading than forecast could result in EUR/USD breaking above one resistance line.
Well below expectations: Below 191K. If the reading is very weak, the pair could break above two or more resistance lines.

source

Parabolic SAR - Trend Ivey Purchasing Managers Index Relative Strength Index -

myname 2015.10.01 13:29 #4

There will be no surprise

Seasonal jobs over. See NFP data in a chart - trend is down currently

Files:

nfp.png 17 kb

thenews 2015.10.01 21:03 #5

Its NFP day: 3 NFP data myths busted ... and 1 confirmed!

On nonfarm payroll (NFP) day the Wall Street Journal reports on some myth busting from BoA/ Merrill LynchMyth 1: Seasonal factors for a given month are wrong because they do not match the previous year's seasonal factors.

False, says Boa/ML ... they shouldn't match ... seasonal factors change -many holidays, for example, land on a different day each year, and weather changes

Myth 2: The birth-death model is inflating the jobs data.

False again they say, and a common mistake.

Myth 3: Months with five weeks tend to overstate payroll growth.

You guessed it, false ... the BLS has refined its seasonal adjustment process to neutralize this factor.

Myth 4: Net revisions to nonfarm payrolls show an upward bias.

And now for something completely different ... confirmed says BoA/ML, this one is true! Looking back over the past two decades, there is a clear pattern of upward revisions to nonfarm payrolls figures

source

Jobless Claims (Initial Claims) Fully connected neural layer Flexible MetaTrader 5 trading

thenews 2015.10.02 10:02 #6

What To Expect From NFP? - Views From 17 Major Banks

The following are the expectations for today's US September jobs report as provided by the economists at 17 major banks along with some thoughts on the USD into the data release as provided by the FX strategists at these banks.

Goldman: We forecast nonfarm payroll growth of 215k in September, above consensus expectations of 200k by about 0.3 standard deviations of a typical surprise. Labor market indicators were mixed in September, and we therefore expect a print roughly in line with the 212k monthly average seen so far in 2015. We also expect a substantial upward revision to August payrolls. Since 2003, the five industries with the clearest August bias have had an average August deceleration of 40k relative to the prior three months and a subsequent upward revision of 35k. This year, these industries decelerated by a combined 56k, and the deceleration excluding government payrolls was 83k. We expect the unemployment rate to remain at 5.1% in September from an unrounded 5.11% in August, but it’s a close call... At 5.1%, the unemployment rate is currently two*tenths above the FOMC’s estimate of the longer run or “structural” rate.

Morgan Stanley: The release of weak US manufacturing data should not take our focus away from stronger US domestic demand conditions and labour market strength. Our colleague, Ted Wieseman, ranked as the top NFP forecaster by Bloomberg, estimates a 190k NFP rise, which is below the 201k consensus call, but sufficiently strong for the Fed to hike in December. With rates markets underpricing a December hike and given our more risk friendly near-term outlook, we have identified USDCHF longs as the best FX vehicle to play for higher US rates.

RBS: While a consensus-beating 220k payroll number would mark another solid performance for the US labour market, such an outturn may not be strong enough to compel the Fed to act this year. The market impact on data that straddle the consensus may thus come down to the degree of back revisions included in this month’s report and the accompanying average earnings data. The payroll change in August disappointed, but historically the first print for the month has been revised upward by an average of +43k. A similar revision may see a more bullish USD reaction on even a consensus-hitting number than would otherwise have been the case. At the same time, it would also show that momentum didn’t slow in the previous month as much as previously assumed and this makes it more likely that the September number also surprises to the topside. We expect this to play USD positive and see EUR/USD falling on the release. It may also bring with it some GBP outperformance, but we doubt such a result will be enough to see a big outperformance for the USD against EM FX. This may change on a +255k number, as markets have potential to price a faster pace of tightening after the initial lift-off. A significant downside miss may prompt questioning over what impact the China slowdown and the stronger USD are having on the labour market. Depending on the size of any downside miss, we prefer establishing either short USD/MXN or short USD/JPY exposure.

BofA Merrill: The labor market likely added 190,000 jobs in September, following the recent trend. Based on our forecast, the three-month average will slow to 204,000 but the six-month will increase to 217,000. The unemployment rate should hold steady at 5.1% while average hourly earnings increase 0.2% mom. This would be the third consecutive solid gain on a monthly basis, therefore translating to a 2.4% yoy rate. Plugging in a 0.2% mom gain for the remaining months of the year would leave wages up 2.7% yoy in December.

Lloyds: Today’s employment report is expected to show continued tightening of the labour market, with nonfarm payrolls forecast to increase by 200k in September. The unemployment rate is forecast to stay at a 7-year low of 5.1%. This nevertheless is likely to be understating the degree of slack in the labour market, given the low participation rate and high involuntary part-time employment. While wage growth continues to be relatively subdued, we anticipate average hourly earnings growth edging up to 2.4% While a strong data print will see the market move, with the risk overhang we are wary USD gains are likely to be muted. 1.5090 is important support in GBPUSD which has held this week, while 1.1090 is support in EURGBP. The worry would be more if the data surprises to the downside, which risks a greater reaction. Resistance in GBPUSD lies at 1.5225 ahead of 1.5350-1.54 and in EURUSD at 1.1270-1.13 ahead of 1.1385/1.14.

Deutsche Bank: We expect a modest rebound in September nonfarm payroll growth (200k), following a lackluster August gain, which may be revised higher. Recall that we had expected a weak August payroll print going into the report, because. we had noticed a historical tendency for August payrolls to disappoint. In similar fashion, there has been a trend of upward revisions to August payroll gains. This has been the case in each of the last five years as August payrolls have been revised up by an average of 79k...We expect average hourly earnings (AHE) to rise +0.2%, which would have the effect of raising the yearover-year growth rate two tenths to 2.4%. If this is the case, it will mark the highest growth rate since August 2009 (2.4%)...DB sees unemployment rate unchanged at 5.1%.

Nomura: We expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to announce that US nonfarm payrolls grew by a net 190k in September. Job growth has slowed somewhat recently after robust gains over the last year, with the six-month moving average of the change in nonfarm payrolls declining from 282k in February to 205k in August. With the labor market returning closer to “full employment” and the output gap closing, we expect payrolls to grow at a less robust pace over the next several years. Given our expectations for payroll gains to slow somewhat compared with previous trends, we expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.1% in September. Moreover, we note that the labor force participation rate remained quite low at 62.6% between June and August, so a rebound to the prior range of 62.7–62.9% could put some upward pressure on the unemployment rate.

Credit Suisse: We project Friday’s payrolls to show +195k jobs in September, up from last month’s +173k, due to strong growth in the construction and service producing sectors. Unemployment is forecasted to remain at 5.1% in line with consensus, while average hourly earnings should increase 0.2% (consensus 0.2%), taking the year over year figure to 2.4%, its highest point since August 2009.

Barclays: We expect, in line with consensus, an increase of 200k in the headline number (190k for the private payroll), a steady unemployment rate of 5.1%, and a 2.4% y/y increase in wages. We see these figures as robust indicators of tighter labor market conditions and supportive of inflation in the months to come.

BNPP: We expect a solid US employment report on Friday, with our economists looking for a recovery in the pace of payroll growth to 200k. We also see a good chance that August’s weaker 173k result could be revised higher, in line with historical patterns for that month. The overall effect should support expectations for Fed tightening to begin in December, if not at the October meeting...With global growth concerns and risk aversion the main obstacles to pricing for rate hikes now, we favour running long USD positions vs. commodity bloc currencies, with these pairs likely to rise if markets move to price in Q4 lift-off or if financial market conditions deteriorate again. Comments from Fed Vice Chair Fischer late Friday will also be important to monitor as he has not spoken publicly since the last FOMC meeting.