Electra EA ** Released to Elite Members **

 

Hi, I will release another private EA, this is called Electra, we continue using Greek names.

This EA is a Multi-pair medium/long term Swing Trader. This is a positive Equity System, it mean the the equity remain in the positive side most of the time.Don't be tempted of halt and close the trades in profit, let the trends develop.

System History: Some time ago, I got the next history from Larry Williams.

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The Farmer, the Gambler, and the Speculator.

There are only three or four rules to follow. But .........you and me we overdo the game........and end up pouring money in, good after bad.

How come? What can we do about it ? At last weekend's seminar in Florida Jake Bernstein shared a very telling story. It goes like this:

Several years ago Jake was speaking to a brokerage firm gathering of farmers, ranchers and a few speculators. After his speech he was asked if he'd like to meet the one customer who made money. they said he wasn't very bright, but made money. Always.

The old farmer and Jake hit it off pretty well, so the gent asked Jake if he'd like to learn his system "Sure," Jake replied. "I'd like to see what you do."

With that, the crusty, aged trader opened up his chart of Pork Bellies and brought out a pendulum on a string....held it over the belly chart and advise Jake "If it swings up and Down on the page, I buy 'em...........if it swing cross ways I sell 'em. There it is, Jake, Now ya seen my system."

Jake stepped back, thought for a minute, and then asked, "That's all, there's nothing else to it ?"

"Mmmm," mumbled the market wizard. "There is one other thing, but it don't mean much, I think. If I got a loss at the end of the day, I get out of them things."

I mulled over this wisdom on the delayed flight home (a bomb threat forced us to switch to another airline) and while driving up I-5 listening to Country Western music a 1:15 AM heard-I mean really heard- Kenny Rogers' song "The Gambler" It struck me that everyone else has focused on his words, "Know when to hold them, know when to fold them"....but the real message I heard was in the refrain, "You gotta know what to throw away, know what to keep."

That dumb old farmer must have written Kenny's song. A gambler knows what to throw away....bad cards. Traders might want to listen to the farmer's and the gambler's work the next time they want to play speculator.

Larry Williams

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After know this history, I coded an EA that simple locate any consolidation period (a flat period) and send a random order, but stop loses fast and ride the winners, I worked on almost all pairs !! as long you manage to stop the loses and ride the winners.

After too much testing I added an indicator to trade the H4 trend, I reduced the trade frequency, I added several Partial TP, to help during ranging markets, because when market is trending we don’t need much help to make a profitable Swing or trend following system, even a random signal will do if you manage to stop loses but when markets are in ranging mode we get killed, our winners never are winners, they come back to get stopped.

The end result is Electra

Electra will Stop Loses fast and ride the winners. That's our only edge.

Trend direction doesn’t matter, strong breaks or market crash are welcome, we only need a market that move on either side.

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"Unlike most other trading systems Trend Follower does not depend on past performance and should work on every market. Its formulas are not based on pattern recognition and random selection of indicators, but rather a clean understanding and timing of the market.

Trend Follower is unique in that it doesn't attempt to predict the future but rather a tool that helps you to recognize the current trend and lets you go with the current flow."

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The EA can ride winners for hundred and even thousand of pips taking partial profits along the way.

Some swings can take months to develop, don’t expect that this EA will open and close trades all day long, this is a low frequency Swing EA

The EA will open an order 4 times the lot size you set and will close it in four Partial Profits.

The EA have a sequence of 4 partial profit, because that, when your set the Lot size, the EA will multiply it by 4

if you set the lot to 0.1 the EA will open an order of 0.4 if you set to 0.2 the Ea will open an order of 0.8

To make it clear, there is not any Martingale or any dangerous cost averaging scheme in this logic, this is a scale-out logic.

The weak point of this system ? yes there is one, a prolonged ranging market without trends can drain the account.

This don't happened on the last 3 years but I don't know the future. Using the EA on many pairs will help to spread the risk, because some pairs can get stuck in a range but others will trend, we don't know what pair will trend in the future, because that is better to run the system on many pairs as possible independent of backtester results, only time will tell which pair will have nice trends or swings.

Market Crash of strong breaks, are our source of profit, you should not worry about suddenly breaks. The H4 trend is very fast to detect trends.

Use on any Timeframe, all the indicators have the timeframe hard coded, The signal used come from few MAs and Bar open, closed price, to basically open a trade during a consolidation or calm period in the direction of the last H4 trend.

There is not need to attach any additional indicator.

I attach the forward test and all the 3 years backtest with Alpari Data and the combined backtest results thanks to MTReport 4.0

Last, this EA don't have problems of compatibility, if you want to use others EAs in the same account, you will not have problems, currently i complement this system with another private EA.

A breakout EA can be a nice complement for a very nice portfolio.

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Electra 1.10 Update Added on 11/27/2007

The main change in this version is the addition of an Automatic MM and SL are now hidden

The MM used is a Turtle System MM.

The lot size is selected based on the pair volatility.

Example EURGBP have a 20 days average dairy range of 38 pips but GBPJPY have a 20 days average dairy range of 339 pips, it mean that if we get a loss on GBPJPY and a winner on EUGBP, we will never cover that loss with that winner.

To equalize the trading size between different instruments Turtle traders use a Money volatility based position size.

This EA use ALL the rules of the turtle System MM, including the reduction of 10% of trading size after each 10% of account loss - 20% reduction -

Default risk is 0.5

To get a perfect lot size equalization with a 0.5 risk (default low risk) the absolute minimum is

$2500 IBFX Mini, 25,000 IBFX Standard, 250,000 NF

To get a perfect lot size equalization with a 1 risk (medium risk) the absolute minimum is

$1200 IBFX Mini, 12,000 IBFX Standard, 120,000 NF

To get a perfect lot size equalization with a 2 risk (High risk) the absolute minimum is

$600 IBFX Mini, 6,000 IBFX Standard, 60,000 NF

This is a drop-in replacement of previous version, lot size doesn't matter at all, the Ea will handle all orders opened with a previous version and you can change risk setting on the fly even with opened orders.

Also we use a 20 days range for all the calculations, like in the turtle system.

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Electra was updated to version 1.11 Added on 12/01/2007

Reason to update:

Bug fix:

Fix a zero divide error because of inconsistent or corrupted data history on some brokers (specially FXLQ and sometimes IBFX real mini accounts)

A routine of data check is implanted in the EA to avoid calculation process until data is loaded.

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I use this system on live accounts but I don't encourage anyone to do it. If you want to use it live, do it at your risk, the most wise thing is forward test this system for many months or even years before go live.

Enjoy.

Disclaimer:

Forex is a high risk market. You may lose substantial amount of money by taking the risk of live trading. I shall not be held responsible for any loss.

 

Some Screenshots

 

Project1972 - I wanted to thank you for your generosity for sharing both your strategies as well clean written code - hope it will help me with coding!

Lots of karma to you!!

I had a question about lot sizes and account size. Are your recommendations based on running the EA on all 19 pairs as in your statement? So for an IBFX mini I would set the EA to 0.01 on all 19 for every $200. Or should I have a maximum of 0.01 for 1 pair for only one currency pair - so to run all 19 pairs I would need a mini account of $200 x 19 = $3,800 with lots set to 0.01?

Thanks!

 
mikep:
Project1972 - I wanted to thank you for your generosity for sharing both your strategies as well clean written code - hope it will help me with coding!

Lots of karma to you!!

I had a question about lot sizes and account size. Are your recommendations based on running the EA on all 19 pairs as in your statement? So for an IBFX mini I would set the EA to 0.01 on all 19 for every $200. Or should I have a maximum of 0.01 for 1 pair for only one currency pair - so to run all 19 pairs I would need a mini account of $200 x 19 = $3,800 with lots set to 0.01?

Thanks!

On a IBFX mini, it should be 0.01 for each $200 on all pairs together, this more or less 2% of trade allocation size, but....this is a very aggressive risk.

I don't have the balls to use more than 0.5% allocation size for trade on a real account, it mean 0.01 lot for $800 on a IBFX mini. 0.01 lot on each $8000 standard, with all pairs together.

Basically each order use a SL between 0.5 ATR to 2 ATR it meant that in a pair with 100 pips daily range the stop could be 50 pips to 200 pips depending the pair. that's the money you will loss on each stop.

Every one have different tolerances to risk, I let it to you to decide what risk is ok with you.

In any case this is not a martingale system, and not a negative equity system, our risk here is not an account blow-up but more likely the risk of a string of consecutive loses in a narrow ranging market, or a slow or faster drain -depending the MM used- of the account in those adverse conditions.

 

Time Frames

Hi Project1972,

Lets see if I understand, Electra works something like a swing trade system? Riding the wave if there is profits, but how are your stops calculated?

Also I have started to foward test your system yesterday, using 0.01 lots and other default setings on 1H chart of AUD/USD, USD/CHF, EUR/JPY, USD/CAD, the few most profitable pairs.

Do you recommend other settings other than the default?

And lastly, does it work on all time frames or what are the few you recommend?

 

Thanks again Project 1972.. I've begun forward testing

0.01 Lot size on all 19 pairs.

Standard demo account equity is $152,000 ($8000 x 19)

Ofcourse when or if this EA is used live it would be dialed down quite a bit.

 
dingo123:
Hi Project1972, Lets see if I understand, Electra works something like a swing trade system? ?

Correct

Riding the wave if there is profits, but how are your stops calculated?

Each pair have predefined settings, somewhat tuned between 0.5 ATR and 2 ATR

On average the stops are around 1.5 ATR it mean that a pair with a daily range of 100 pips the stop will be 150 pips.

Also I have started to foward test your system yesterday, using 0.01 lots and other default setings on 1H chart of AUD/USD, USD/CHF, EUR/JPY, USD/CAD, the few most profitable pairs.

Wrong, how do you know that these will be the most profitable pairs in the future ? Do you have the crystal ball ?

A backtest is not indication of future performance, the market can change and the most profitable pairs of the past can turn the other way.

Look EURGBP it was a pair stuck in a range for long time, but his last swing bring profit, the same for USDCHF, in the past it don't show a very interesting performance, but in the last 2 months it revived. The Forward test of USDCHF was way better than any backtest

I recommend to use all pairs, if one lag and get stuck in a range other can do nice swings and bring a lot of profit.

Diversification is also very important to address the pain suffered by the trader when we get a ranging market on one pair -or many- and the account get stuck without grow, most traders will stop the system very fast if they start it in a calm period and there is not account grow in 2 months. Some will stop it much sooner, most of the time, the trends or swings start when they drop the system.

Do you recommend other settings other than the default?

All the settings are very general with a light tuning already inside the EA in the predefined settings, this method is robust enough to not need a lot of tuning, in fact the previous version of this EA didn't not used ANY tuning for each pair, it used the same settings for ALL pairs and it did a nice profit.

The most important setting we use here is a ATRTakeProfit large than the ATRStoploss, a large ATRPartialClose and we relay in the market and the diversification between many pairs.

And lastly, does it work on all time frames or what are the few you recommend?

Timeframes are hard coded, it doesn't matter for the working of the system

 
drgoodvibe:
Thanks again Project 1972.. I've begun forward testing

0.01 Lot size on all 19 pairs.

Standard demo account equity is $152,000 ($8000 x 19)

Ofcourse when or if this EA is used live it would be dialed down quite a bit.

I think that you dialed down a lot, $8k should be more that enough to run all the 19 pairs together on 0.01 lot and it will be a very low risk.

This is not Alpha9 this EA rarely run in floating drawdown and don't follow the long term trend. if you diversify enough, chances are that if you get stopped in a pair, other will give you profit.

Also this EA trade much less than you imagine, in the last 2 months it was very active because the market moved a lot, but this is not frequent.

Currently I am testing it on a $5k FXLQ standard account with a lot size of 0.02 on all the 20 pairs available.

 

Definately, past performance is no indication of future results, but I somehow decided to pick those pairs.

In the mean time I am trying to get another terminal up to foward test all or most of the other pairs and will see how when I get it up and running

 
project1972:
Correct

Each pair have predefined settings, somewhat tuned between 0.5 ATR and 2 ATR

On average the stops are around 1.5 ATR it mean that a pair with a daily range of 100 pips the stop will be 150 pips.

Wrong, how do you know that these will be the most profitable pairs in the future ? Do you have the crystal ball ?

A backtest is not indication of future performance, the market can change and the most profitable pairs of the past can turn the other way.

Look EURGBP it was a pair stuck in a range for long time, but his last swing bring profit, the same for USDCHF, in the past it don't show a very interesting performance, but in the last 2 months it revived. The Forward test of USDCHF was way better than any backtest

I recommend to use all pairs, if one lag and get stuck in a range other can do nice swings and bring a lot of profit.

Diversification is also very important to address the pain suffered by the trader when we get a ranging market on one pair -or many- and the account get stuck without grow, most traders will stop the system very fast if they start it in a calm period and there is not account grow in 2 months. Some will stop it much sooner, most of the time, the trends or swings start when they drop the system.

All the settings are very general with a light tuning already inside the EA in the predefined settings, this method is robust enough to not need a lot of tuning, in fact the previous version of this EA didn't not used ANY tuning for each pair, it used the same settings for ALL pairs and it did a nice profit.

The most important setting we use here is a ATRTakeProfit large than the ATRStoploss, a large ATRPartialClose and we relay in the market and the diversification between many pairs.

Timeframes are hard coded, it doesn't matter for the working of the system

Hi Project 1972

Thankyou for yet another EA!

I understand that the timeframes are hardcoded and it doesn't matter which ones we choose, but which time do you use? I ask as you've had a lot of experience with this EA.

Do you trade Electra and Alpha9 live yet? (I'll be forward testing both for the next 6 months).

Thanks

Adam

P.S. Thanks for the link to the MT4Report-4

 
adam777:
Hi Project 1972

Thankyou for yet another EA!

I understand that the timeframes are hardcoded and it doesn't matter which ones we choose, but which time do you use? I ask as you've had a lot of experience with this EA.

Do you trade Electra and Alpha9 live yet? (I'll be forward testing both for the next 6 months).

Thanks

Adam

P.S. Thanks for the link to the MT4Report-4

Normally I run H1 timeframe, just because this is the default TM when you open a chart.

I don't run Alpha9 live, at least not yet, Alpha9 is a very complex system with complex backtest that can lead to a big margin of error, 3 months of forward test is not enough to validate a system with that complexity, in special the multi-pair performance using a equity stop.

I will consider Alpha9 live only after much more testing.

But I run Electra live on 2 IBFX real accounts with good success and now I will start testing FXLQ

I develop systems for hobby and with the intention of running those systems in personal accounts but my core trading still is manual using a Dukascopy account (short term GBPUSD trades), some stocks at TDAmeritrade (medium/long term investments) and Bonds and Commodities at XpressTrade (medium term), everything manual trades, I like to program systems but I still trade with the old school.

Reason: