TMA&Cycles - page 8

M15

Sillykiddo,

I have made a template to trade on m15 chart

It uses half cycle =18 for m15(red bands) and half cycle =22 for h1(22*4=88)blue bands...I have modified the atr Length of the blue bands to 80 m15 periods(20 h1 periods) and I have used the sqr root technique(ie h1= 4 times m15..so atr should be sqrroot(4)*atr of lower tf+- 1atr...that gives 4 atr which I have modified to 4.5 for the blue bands).

I strongly suggest that you check the cycle lengths(h1,m15) at least every couple of hours and modify the halflengths of the blue and red bands accordingly.

Frankly,this is the "lowest" I would dare go with TMA bands ...Looks like it can give good entries,but I haven`t tested it so,do it on demo and modify accordingly.

I have used the alert version of TMA Bands posted by mladen a few posts ago.

Please see pic and tpl attacched

Regards

S

Eurjpy

Hi,

1-EURJPY D1 Has rebounded,two consective days,at the lower band(half length =12),this probably signals a temporary change in trend.(see attacched C&C30)

2-EURJPY H4 has rebounded too on the lower band(half length=6),and price has crossed easily above the Daily and MN pivots.(see attacched C&C31)

So,I entered a long trade @ 133.59,with wide stop(132.45) and open target,even if the minimum Target I expect it to reach this week is D R2 at 135.15...RISK=114 PIPS...REWARD=156 PIPS.

The RR is not as good as I would like it to be,but the trade has positive expectancy and once in profit(if in profit ),I will shorten the SL distance,reducing the risk.

When trading the higher timeframes,it is better to use wider stops/targets and smaller position sizes.

Regards

S

EURJPY Update,EURUSD

Hi All,

1-Update of EURJPY trade at previous post...The trade was stopped out at a profit of 41 pips,there will be opportunity for reentry(Long) later today or tomorrow.

2-EURUSD D1:Please see pic c&c32..It shows a very nice support area in the 1.4690 area(Aqua rectangle)...This is an area were ,on a daily chart,we can observe a concentration of several day`s lows..It will be an ideal area for price to rebound from,and,having NFP data tomorrow,anything can happen,but,if price touches that area it is very probable that we will have at least a temporary upmove with good RR...So,how do we use the bands to help us in that trade?(If it happens,eurusd can continue to go up and not even approach that area)....See next point

3-EURUSD H4:Please see pic c&c33...It shows several things...1- The bands at h4,and how the lower band is interacting with the daily support area we previously defined(Aqua rectangle)...2-Cycle extension lines of latest2 low to low swings show where we can expect price,in time,to reach a probable next low(Magenta and Gold rectangles)...3-Secondary potential reversal area,defined by pivots (price) and cycle extensions(time)...Golden rectangle..So,now we have a plan

4-Trading Strategy:1-Wait for price to touch/enter any of the rectangles(Gold or Magenta)..2-Check the H4 bands when/if this happens...make a decision to either check the H1 bands too or take a direct entry,after estimating the RR

Since the rectangles cover a time area that Goes from midnight to midday of tomorrow (GMT) we can take a day off from trading ...Actually,I am serious,today most of the pairs are in short term countertrend mode to their mid term trends...so,I won`t trade,I prefer to wait for low risk and potentially high reward setups,like the one I showed ,to be traded tomorrow ...at NFP Day,not the ideal time for an ideal setup....I will update this post within the next 24 hours...It will be interesting to see if the rebound areas are touched or not and the implications for EURUSD trading with TMA BANDS.

BTW.....You may have noticed that I don`t even consider to short neither the EURJPY nor the EURUSD,yes,I have an UPSIDE BIAS,which is derived by d1 trend analysis,I may be mistaken or not,but having a bias and stick to it,is very important to avoid overtrading....If my bias is wrong,I will probably not get any good long entry with good RR,so,I won`t make money nor will I lose it...if my bias is right,I will probably get,in at least one pair,a good RR setup to trade.

Regards

S

Hi Simba,

Does look like the market gearing up for NFP tomorrow, was able to sneak in this trade from this afternoon till now 120 + pips, but wish there was smiley kicking its own butt, because that is me now would be heading for at least another 80 pips, need to learn to follow my indicators

Tried to edit my picture but think forgot to upload so trying again

Think I did it right this time

Risk

Hi Simba,

Does look like the market gearing up for NFP tomorrow, was able to sneak in this trade from this afternoon till now 120 + pips, but wish there was smiley kicking its own butt, because that is me now would be heading for at least another 80 pips, need to learn to follow my indicatorsQUOTE]

Tools,

You took 120 pips Profit with very low risk,so,don`t kick your butt,you did a very good trade....Try to celebrate with some umbrella drinks.

A trade,good or bad, is defined by its actual reward to risk ratio...for a closed profitable trade,that means Average closed Profit/Maximum open Drawdown...any ratio above 1 is a very good one,yours was,so try to repeat these kind of trades as often as you can,and forget about the 80 pips on the table,you will never catch the "last pip" on a systematic enough basis(if you do,please email me ),so forget about it and focus on keeping your very good RR ratio....and don`t forget to celebrate,very good trade my friend,congratulations.

BTW: Did you find a good way to combine the TMA Bands with the Ellipses you posted?Yes,I know it is some kind of Fibo indicator that you posted at "something interesting"(I downloaded it )but still haven`t had time to check if it works synergistically with Tma Bands...from your pics,it looks like you did indeed had time

Regards

S

Hi Simba and Thanks ,

Yeah about the trade looking now was good thing exited when i did, kinda looking like same thing setting up again, but may let this one go, especially so close to NFP.

The indicator is FiboSpiral really liking where the spirals are falling usually very close to my manual support and resistance lines.Had posted it at FiboGann section but just in case post it here.Also you are very right about using Igorads Corona CP for cycle period the bands are a much better fit.

Corona`s

SIMBA:

Hi Simba and Thanks ,

Yeah about the trade looking now was good thing exited when i did, kinda looking like same thing setting up again, but may let this one go, especially so close to NFP.

The indicator is FiboSpiral really liking where the spirals are falling usually very close to my manual support and resistance lines.Had posted it at FiboGann section but just in case post it here.Also you are very right about using Igorads Corona CP for cycle period the bands are a much better fit.

Tools,

Yes,the Coronas are a much better fit than Cycle Period indicator,way better,Igorad`s coded a fantastic set of Corona indicators...And,thanks for posting again the FiboSpiral....No mention about the umbrellas?....MMMM

I will tell Tudor Girl....Hahahahahahahahaha

Regards

S

Mladen, and Simba-

Wouldn't it be simplier if you combine the two indicators simply to auto update?

This is just a thought as if someone were to wanting to use this "Method" on a 5M chart, it would be very annoying to continually update the dom Cycle Period.

Fantastic

Walander,automatic updates of tma periods based on dominant Cycle will be fantastic...only problem is that this method is like a scalpel or a razor...use it on h4,d1 or CRBs...and we are a "Smart surgeon with a scalpel"...use it on M30 and below,and we are just "Drunk monkeys with a razor"....This doesn`t detract from the "auto update is best" argument,in theory,so,my point is just relative(autoupdate is best h1 nd higher),not absolute,but in practice... I believe it won`t work if we extend it to all tfs...

I don`t know if I made my point clear enough,and I am not a programmer,so,if mladen wants to link the indy with Corona Cycle period,for me it is OK.....BTW Even H1 is dubious

Regards

S