TMA&Cycles - page 4
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Valeo,
Thanks for your comments.
1-I suggest that you do a visual tester of your system,if you can`t do it h8,h1..do it h4,h1 and see if it still works...the key issue is to check where the bands were at the time of the turn,not several bars after the turn.
2-I have learnt by the school of hard knocks to always enter with price action..In your chart,the only justified entry by PA is the second green bar after the bottom,which closes way above the previous bar close..since you tell me you took 118 pips,I presume that you entered on the extreme....This is not good policy with these bands,unless you used PA at a lower tf,which,IMHO,at a minimum ,must be either H1 or H4...so,if you entered on PA at h1 or h4..well done,excellent trade..If you didn`t,IMHO,excellent trade but bad habit reinforcing itself by success.
3-A very good entry by PA is wait for a good signal On H1 then scale in in thirds..1/3 at the signal,1/3 by using M5,and 1/3 by using either m15 or m1,whatever feels better
..The rationale is that the PA already indicates that the trade has market flow behind it,so,you could even trade on a tick chart with a macd divergence..in the direction of the signal.
Regards
S====================================
Hi Simba,
Good to hear from you again. Many thanks for the reply - let me first tell you that my first trade using this method gave me +100 pips as the indication was a 100-pip trade. What was excellent about that was the fact that the price only went down to -22 pips before giving me my 100 pips. ALL of this on H4, including the one mentioned here in #1.
It also took me "forever" to understand how to avoid the "BC"-leg, but I think I am now better at it.
Thank you for your kind suggestions - I will certainly make use of them.
Finally, as far as the "Renko-bars" go, I have been working with them thanks to a friend in Chicago who put me onto them and also the Thread by Mr. Nims. However, having said that I am not sure whether it is such a good method in non-trending markets as I have seen frequent pull-backs around minus-30 pips which does not sit well with me. I will however take your idea and see if I can get a better result.
I will reply to the last part of your post in my next post.
Best wishes.
Fractals...
Valeo,
Thanks for your comments.
If you do fractal simulation of the financial markets,you will see that the basic monad(iterating shape) is always a nonlinear ABCD,with a clear center..All markets,all timeframes...it changes size and shape,but it is always there..please see pic...I took it from a Russian forum,since these forums are the only place in the web where you can coherently learn about fractals and chaos ,related to markets,from people that know and want to share and experiment with a free mind...If you see the 2 circled areas,you will see why,at the right of the chart,a long was the trade to be taken...The left circled area is a generating fractal(parent fractal) and the right one is an iterating fractal(child fractal)...But this off topic,even if extremely interesting.
Regards
S======================================
Hi Simba,
Would you mind giving me the link to the website where one can study the fractals - hopefully it is in English or I will have to translate it.
It looks most interesting to say the least.
Best regards,
Map
Valeo,
Of the 3 sell limit orders I wrote about...GU has been triggered,I have now stop at breakeven and target 10 pips above the Monthly S1(1.59545)...I believe it will either touch the S1(1.59445) or go around 20 pips below it to the daily Pivot area..AND a move of D1 ATR(200 pips) from today`s high...Additional alternative is for prices to go down towards or beyond previous lows,the D1 ATR makes this move too risky for my taste...I will take the 116 pips if they come...pls,see pic.
I have eliminated GBPJPY,the second GBPUSD,both not triggered,and AUDJPY sell limit order I had moved up to 79.430 to reflect the new pivot reality,but if it doesn`t touch it in the next few hours I will erase it too.
Basically,it helps to have a mental map of the week..for this week my map was,and still is,buy on Monday -sell on Tuesday,Wednesday,buy Thursday night or Friday morning(October second..I focus on it on another thread slightly more esoteric
)..and then either keep the positions during the week end or close all on Friday evening....As long as price swings seem to conform to the map,I will follow it.
EDIT:Target reached and AUDJPY sell limit erased..no more trades until Thursday(sell in the morning,close in the evening if price action indicates doing so)... or Friday Buy in the morning,if not long already from Thursday night.
Regards
S
Valeo,
Of the 3 sell limit orders I wrote about...GU has been triggered,I have now stop at breakeven and target 10 pips above the Monthly S1(1.59545)...I believe it will either touch the S1(1.59445) or go around 20 pips below it to the daily Pivot area..AND a move of D1 ATR(200 pips) from today`s high...Additional alternative is for prices to go down towards or beyond previous lows,the D1 ATR makes this move too risky for my taste...I will take the 116 pips if they come...pls,see pic.
I have eliminated GBPJPY,the second GBPUSD,both not triggered,and AUDJPY sell limit order I had moved up to 79.430 to reflect the new pivot reality,but if it doesn`t touch it in the next few hours I will erase it too.
Basically,it helps to have a mental map of the week..for this week my map was,and still is,buy on Monday -sell on Tuesday,Wednesday,buy Thursday night or Friday morning(October second..I focus on it on another thread slightly more esoteric
)..and then either keep the positions during the week end or close all on Friday evening....As long as price swings seem to conform to the map,I will follow it.
Regards
SHi Simba,
After your posts regarding the Orders, I now look and see as I write, that your first short had just reached your target! Congratulations!!!
Having said that, I also now realise that I have still so much to learn after 8 years of trading. My trading is still stressful whereas yours are less stressful - a point I want to get to a.s.a.p.
I have always admired your knowledge base, but today in particular you have risen even more in my estimation. I trust that I will be able to learn more from you during the next couple of weeks so that I can also reach my goal by December 2009.
Many thanks; you are a gem to behold!
Best personal regards,
What time frames?
Valeo,
Take a look at the 2 pics for Cable,the red bands are used on h4 ATR(70 pips) for the the crbs and the blue ones on D1 ATR(200 pips)...usual cycle calculations,etc..Blue bands cycle is 16,so,halflength is 8..redbands cycle is 28,so halflength=14..since noise is decreased the atrs I used are 1.5(blue bands) and 2.0 (red bands)respectively..If you think about it,the higher the number of pips we use for the crb,the lower the atr we need..so,instead of using 5 atrs for d1 bands(on h4),as we did previously,we just use 1.5 for the bands on crbs sized to d1 atr...much better for decision making IMO.
Red Bands:You can see strong resistance(previous broken support) area,plus price has/is rebounding on the band
Blue Bands:You can see price(probably) rebounding at the centerline of the TMA,where ,in addition to the resistance previously mentioned,there is a weekly pivot.
Regards
S======================================
Sorry, Simba I forgot to ask about the TFs you are using, please. It seems like M2 and M3 respectively? The fit is absolutely incredible!
Also, would you mind posting your Pivot-indicator?
Thanking you in advance.
Valeo,
Basically,it helps to have a mental map of the week..for this week my map was,and still is,buy on Monday -sell on Tuesday,Wednesday,buy Thursday night or Friday morning(October second..I focus on it on another thread slightly more esoteric
)..and then either keep the positions during the week end or close all on Friday evening....As long as price swings seem to conform to the map,I will follow it.
Regards
S===================================
You see what I mean?
Firstly, which Thread? I need to be in your class, please.
Secondly, how do you make these decisions as to when to Buy and Sell?
Best wishes.
Mental game
======================================
Sorry, Simba I forgot to ask about the TFs you are using, please. It seems like M2 and M3 respectively? The fit is absolutely incredible!
Also, would you mind posting your Pivot-indicator?
Thanking you in advance.===================================
You see what I mean?
Firstly, which Thread? I need to be in your class, please.
Secondly, how do you make these decisions as to when to Buy and Sell?
Best wishes.Thanks for your kind words..again .
1-Yes I use M2(CRBs with bar size=H4 ATR(100) and M3(CRBs with bar size=D1 ATR(100))...for cable usually this means 70 and 200 pips,and for GJ it means 80/100 and 250/300 pips..for EURUSD 50&150 pips....this kills noise extraordinarily well,without causing any time delay.
2-The thread is Astro,in the general discussion session,the last 4 or 5 pages,I decided to start posting there when I saw it was going nowhere.
I believe the market to be just a predator/prey/environment game..where do the Lions mostly get their prey?
(At the river?) At what times?(usually at night)..so,in the market this translates into being specially attentive when prices are at pivot points or SR and/or at special times of the day...If you are a zebra drinking at the riverside at night,your life expectancy is going to be short,same as if you are a lion hunting at midday in the middle of nowhere;)...My model of the market is based on nonlinearity and cycles,what causes them is open for discussion,what correlates with them is not(astro events correlate very well with market cycles as I show in the thread),if you take your time to investigate...do your job and test the correlations if you are interested.
I make my buy and sell decisions when price action confirms my mental view of what is happening...To replicate my mental view you should become me
..Which is impossible,so,don`t try..try just to have your own view of the market based on what you believe is going to happen,always think about bifurcations and alternative possibilities,since the market can go two ways no matter what you believe,and then wait for price action to confirm your views.
If you are trading below h1,you are trading noise,so,only use the lower timeframes to improve the timing of trading decisions made in h4,d1...for the same reason,using stops that are below h1 atr is a recipe for disaster,any random move will take you out of your position,so,it is better to widen the stop and to reduce the position size.
Pivot indicator is included in this post,I don`t use midpivots,m3 I use mainly the weekly and monthly pivots and m2 I use daily,weekly,and,sometimes the Fibopivots included in the indicator.
Regards
S
Thanks for your kind words..again .
1-Yes I use M2(CRBs with bar size=H4 ATR(100) and M3(CRBs with bar size=D1 ATR(100))...for cable usually this means 70 and 200 pips,and for GJ it means 80/100 and 250/300 pips..for EURUSD 50&150 pips....this kills noise extraordinarily well,without causing any time delay.
I have access to the Renko-bars and will adapt them to your settings. Many thanks.
2-The thread is Astro,in the general discussion session,the last 4 or 5 pages,I decided to start posting there when I saw it was going nowhere.
I will study the recommended pages and ask questions there if needed. I like Gann's work very much as he also based his work on planetary cycles as you all well know. Your approach in the Thread fascinates me. I am a good student and want to get to the bottom of the subject as soon as I can.
If you are trading below h1,you are trading noise,so,only use the lower timeframes to improve the timing of trading decisions made in h4,d1...for the same reason,using stops that are below h1 atr is a recipe for disaster,any random move will take you out of your position,so,it is better to widen the stop and to reduce the position size.
This is just a mindset thing and will adjust accordingly, thanks.
Pivot indicator is included in this post,I don`t use midpivots,m3 I use mainly the weekly and monthly pivots and m2 I use daily,weekly,and,sometimes the Fibopivots included in the indicator.
Appreciate the indicator, thanks. I thought I had it when I found your other Thread and downloaded the zipfiles. I will get over there and discuss something with you that I picked up last night.
Best regards.
CP Bands
Bands controlled by Cycle Period, tried TMA but wasn't working right so went with SSA, also using an ATR t3 version the T3 is controlled by Cycle Period, its also working on Renko Bars, you can adjust the cycle by adjusting time factor setting, on picture using timefactor = 1 for chart time and if i'm on h4 and want cycles for D1 change time factor to 6 for 24 hr., the cycle period is divided by 2 internally and then multiplied by time factor. Look good on the chart almost same as manually adjusting the bands.Hopefully get one of our master coders to possibly make a lighter version.