April NFP: Barclays Forecasts Robust Job Gains Of 250K

For the April employment report, scheduled for release on Friday, May 6, we forecast nonfarm payroll growth of 250k. Such an outturn would indicate that job growth accelerated from the March reading of 215k and the 209k average in Q1. Within this, we look for private payroll growth of 240k and net government hiring of 10k. Supporting our outlook for solid employment gains are initial jobless claims, which fell in the April survey week relative to March, and continuing claims, which also moved lower on the month. Trends in initial and continuing jobless claims point to ongoing declines in labor market separations, and we are allowing the full signal from the claims data to pass into our forecast for April employment.

Elsewhere in the report, we forecast average hourly earnings to rise 0.3% m/m and 2.4% y/y in April. In line with our view that US labor markets remain healthy, we expect the average workweek to hold steady at 34.5 hours.  

We look for the household survey to show a similar pace of job growth as the establishment survey, leading the unemployment rate to decline one-tenth, to 4.9%. Striking workers are generally included in the household survey under the category “with a job, but not at work.” Labor force participation has risen 0.6pp since September, limiting the magnitude of the decline in the unemployment rate. We expect participation to trend broadly sideways from its current reading of 63.0% and look for the near-term evolution of the unemployment to reflect employment gains more closely.