Gold & Silver Analyses

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MMIGROUP
Join date: 2014.01.03
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#1

3/Jan/2014

Gold:

Traders returned from vacation and their enthusiasm rose strongly, especially precious metals was not affected by news and bucked the trend. Fed officials will make speech intensively tonight and tomorrow which is the event focused on. MMI GROUP Trust Fund Team thinks the downward trend of gold is full, but this wave of downward trend since October 19 has gone bad, appearing broken phenomenon. A wave of upward may appear, considering to go long at low above 1219 and maybe testing 1252 line again or even higher.

Upward resistance: 1224.60 / 1252 / 1267.80

Downward support: 1219 / 1212.70 / 1187.20

Silver:

Silver is in broad range between 20.50 and 18.70 so far, direction will be clear once breaking box.

Upward resistance: 20.50 / 20.90

Downward support: 19.80 / 19.30 / 19

theNews
Join date: 2012.10.01
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#2

Gold "Speculation" Drops To Record Low

While the last two days of relative excitement in the precious metals are noteworthy in their bucking-the-trend of recent months, there is perhaps a much more critical 'trend' that may finally allow the demand for physical gold to peer through the veneer of synthetic paper pricing. As JPMorgan notes, speculative positions (defined CFTC net longs minus shorts) have dropped to record lows in the last few weeks. With ETF gold holdings back below 'Lehman' levels and gold coin sales elevated, perhaps the Indian government's (and most of the Western world's Feds) hope for the death of the precious metals market is greatly exaggerated...

Gold Spec positions at record lows...

"Paper" Gold ETF Holdings at pre-Lehman crisis levels...

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MMIGROUP
Join date: 2014.01.03
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#3

6/Jan/2014 Gold & Silver Analyses

Gold:

Closed on Jan 3, the gold price of U.S. COMEX in February rose $13.40, or 1.1%. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said on Friday that the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut bond buying in the last meeting is very right, because the U.S. job market is gradually improving. He expected the Federal Reserve will further discuss the matter on cutting bond buying in the future meeting. MMI GROUP Trust Fund Team thinks, although gold broke the downlink channel last week since October 29, but is still running in the downward trend since the peak of August 28. Currently it is likely to test the top edge of downlink channel.

Upside resistance: 1252 / 1267.80

Downside support: 1227 / 1212.70 / 1187.20

Silver:

Silver is still in the shock area, but the downward trend does not go bad. 20.50 the following It is still primarily short thinking under 20.50.

Upside resistance: 20.50 / 20.90

Downside support: 19.80 / 19.35

This article only represents the personal point of author, for reference only, not as a basis for the investment. Enter the market accordingly at your own risk.

theNews
Join date: 2012.10.01
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#4

Gold Just Flash Crashed

Gold just got slammed by a big trade. Check out the chart below (via Nanex).

As the volume sub-graph shows, over 10,000 futures contracts were traded at 10:14 AM ET, seeing the price of the metal fall from $1245.50 an ounce to a low of $1212.60 before rebounding back to current levels around $1234.

source

MMIGROUP
Join date: 2014.01.03
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#5

8/Jan/2014 Gold & Silver Analyses

Gold:

Eurostat data released on Tuesday displayed, the consumer price index (CPI) of euro zone on December is less than the expected 0.9%.The Eurozone faces the risk of inflation further falling again.

Improvement of U.S. trade balance boosts the dollar but suppresses precious metals. The ADP national employment report in December and the Fed's December meeting minutes on Friday, will lead to hot spots again. MMI GROUP Trust Fund Team thinks the downward trend is full and still do bear market at 1267.80. Focus on 1212.70 line in the day, if stabilize above the line, can consider light storehouse and more single to participate.

Upside resistance: 1233 / 1252 / 1267.80

Downside support: 1219 / 1212.70

Silver:

Silver is still running in tank shock, short thinking below 20.50, if effectively breakthrough the bottom of tank, then the downward space open further. Non-farm in this week may make silver have a more positive performance.

Upside resistance: 20.50 / 20.90

Downside support: 19.35 / 18.70

This article only represents the personal point of author, for reference only, not as a basis for the investment. Enter the market accordingly at your own risk.

theNews
Join date: 2012.10.01
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#6

Proof Gold's Latest Slam Was Not A "Fat Goldfinger"

With December's "fat finger" in US Treasury Futures proved as nothing but an HFT algo gone wild, Nanex has turned its deep-thought to the recent halt in gold futures markets. Their conclusion, this was not the result of a fat finger, but rather the work of a high frequency trading algorithm that would pause, and (probably) test the market before continuing. A fat finger would not have had such distinguishing features.

December's bond melt-up was not a fat finger but an HFT algo gone wild..

Video replay of trading action in T-Bond Futures casts doubt that this was a "fat-finger" event

A fat-finger trade would send prices straight up, but video replay clearly shows pauses and ample back-and-forth trading.

And so was the recent gold smack down...

Via Nanex,

On January 6, 2014 at 10:14:13, Gold futures plummeted $30 on heavy volume. About 4,200 contracts send gold futures prices tumbling $30 and trigger a 10 second trading halt.

Update - 8-Jan-2014

The chart below shows the entire $30 drop in the price of Gold futures that occurred in just under 100 milliseconds (1/10th of a second). When we separated groups of trades by a jump in the exchange sequence number (a technique to determine the size of a larger order) we discovered there were 9 groups where the sum of the trade sizes was exactly 338 contracts! Each group is composed of widely different number of trades (211, 186, 120, 193, 97, 193, 137, 112 and 109 to be precise), yet the sum of the sizes of each group totals exactly 338. We show these 9 groups in the chart below. What's more, there are other trades occurring between these groups of 338 contracts.

What this tells us is that this was not the result of a fat finger, but rather the work of a high frequency trading algorithm that would pause, and (probably) test the market before continuing. A fat finger would not have had such distinguishing features.

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MMIGROUP
Join date: 2014.01.03
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#7

9/Jan/2014 Gold & Silver Analyses

Gold:

The Fed's policy meeting minutes from 18 to 19 December published on Wednesday revealed that the Fed thought the economic boost brought by quantitative easing bond purchase monthly has begun to weaken. after the release of meeting minutes, the dollar briefly rose, but the impact did not kept for a long time, soon returned most rising. MMI GROUP Trust Fund Team considers gold is doing concussion run, currently trading is relatively light, waiting for the interest rates of European central bank and Bank of England today and non-farm performance on Friday, can consider light storehouse build more at low order in a day, but still short thinking mainly.

Upside resistance: 1233.10 / 1248.50

Downside support: 1212.70 / 1199

Silver:

Silver can do short-term bullish thinking in a day or two, but still short market below 20.50.

Upside resistance: 19.90 / 20.50 / 20.90

Downside support: 19.40 / 19 / 18.70

This article only represents the personal point of author, for reference only, not as a basis for the investment. Enter the market accordingly at your own risk.

theNews
Join date: 2012.10.01
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#8

Gold And Silver Are Spiking

Following this morning's smackdown, it appears low prices encouraged demand and in the last few minutes, gold and silver turned green for the day and surged on heavy futures volume back above $1250 and $20.25 respectively.

source

MMIGROUP
Join date: 2014.01.03
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#9
14/Jan/2014 Gold & Silver Analyses

Gold:

The market was closed yesterday and is relatively light because of the Coming-of-Age Day in Europe and the United States. MMI GROUP Trust Fund Team thinks the concern on slowing down the QE speed byFed was caused by the non-agricultural data last week, which is good for commodity currencies. Gold ended positively for three consecutive days, but the downward trend is still well-defined, short thinking is dominant. Currently focus on the top edge of the downlink channel, if effectively break, may be out of a large correction rally.

Upside resistance: 1267.80 / 1278.80

Downside support: 1238 / 1212.70

Silver:

The terrible non-agricultural report last week made silver shock upstream, but still below 20.50. The 20.50 line is the most important long-short watershed, short trend may remain if cannot break effectively.

Upside resistance: 20.50 / 20.40

Downside support: 19.90 / 19.40

theNews
Join date: 2012.10.01
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#10

Gold Monkey-Hammered As Stocks Spike

Well that escalated quickly... As Europe closes, the precious metals complex is slaughtered on the altar of higher stocks and lower bond prices...

We can only imagine the fiduciary that would wait til the last mnute to bulk sell as much nominal paper gold and silver as this...

And for a sense of the volume...

source

MMIGROUP
Join date: 2014.01.03
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#11

15/Jan/2014 Gold & Silver Analyses

Gold:

Precious Metals sharply went downward yesterday after two hawks of Fed, Fisher and Plosser, newly won voting right and issued the strong views to support an early end to QE. MMI GROUP Trust Fund Team thinks the downward trend of Gold is in whole, without touching the lower edge of downlink channel yesterday, and has broken the recent upward trend, the short information is strong now. Our advice is to sell at high intraday, many holdings need be cautious, can consider longs to participate in until appears effectively break downward trend.

Upside resistance: 1245.50 / 1255.40 / 1267.90

Downside support: 1238.10 / 1227.10

Silver:

Silver peaked by the influence of Fed comments yesterday, but quickly fell back to the turbulence field, did not effectively breakthrough 20.50 line, showing bears power still prevail. Investors can consider empty single participate in at high intraday.

Upside resistance: 20.50 / 20.90 / 21.40

Downside support: 19.90 / 19.30

This article only represents the personal point of author, for reference only, not as a basis for the investment. Enter the market accordingly at your own risk.

MMIGROUP
Join date: 2014.01.03
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#12

16/Jan/2014 Gold & Silver Analyses

Gold

The performance of US banks is strong, while the US PPI and New York manufacturing PMI created new high in a year and a half. Market regained the confidence in Dollar, and suppressed Precious Metals. MMI GROUP Trust Fund Team thinks the price of gold operated under 1242.50 yesterday, but didn't hit 1246.50 line, showing short was strong. Still dominated by going short at high under 1246.50 intraday.

Upside resistance: 1242.50 / 1246.50 / 1255.40

Downside support: 1234.30 / 1227.10

Silver

The holdings up to January 16 of the global major silver, ETF-iSharesSilverTrust, held the line compared with the previous trading day, which was 9894.53 tons, and the total value was about $6.389 billion. After fell back yesterday sliver showed a narrow finishing. The suggestion is on processing due to the small range.

Upside resistance: 20.30 / 20.50

Downside support: 19.90 / 19.30

This article only represents the personal point of author, for reference only, not as a basis for the investment. Enter the market accordingly at your own risk.

theNews
Join date: 2012.10.01
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#13

How low will gold go in 2014? Consensus forecast says down 14.5%

Gold will average $1,209 an ounce this year, judging by recent forecasts from six big banks.

That average of their individual calls represents a drop of 14.5% from the precious metal’s average price in 2013 (which was $1,413 per ounce, according to a Deutsche Bank note).

Deutsche Bank, as the table above shows, is most bearish of the six, seeing an average price in 2014 of $1,141 an ounce, while HSBC is the least bearish at $1,292.

The middle ground, meanwhile, goes to Barclays, which predicts an average price this year of $1,205 per ounce for gold GCG4 -0.15% .

Why will gold prices keep falling? A Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategist has said a lack of buyer interest is his biggest worry. A stronger global economy, a continued tapering in the Federal Reserve’s bond buying and no sign of inflation could also pull interest away from gold, analysts say.

More details on the Barclays and HSBC’s targets are here; Deutsche Bank here; J.P. Morgan here and UBS here.

While it looks like gold will follow up a terrible 2013 with a bad 2014, plays like gold GLD -0.02% or gold miners GDX +0.05% don’t have to provide exceptionally high returns to be worth having in a portfolio. A Morningstar analyst noted last year that mining stocks help with diversification “because their low correlation to conventional stocks and bonds mean they can improve a portfolio’s overall risk-adjusted returns.”

source

nbtrading
Join date: 2013.11.30
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#14

It can not go lower than it is now - all of them know it. Predictions are very close to actual price

MMIGROUP
Join date: 2014.01.03
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#15

17/Jan/2014 Gold & Silver Analyses

Gold:

Gold went sideways after two days down, as data shows the U.S. job market enhanced, and the improvement of regional manufacturing activities suppressed gold buying. The speech of Mr. Bernanke on farewell feast in the morning had no new conception and did not affect the market. MMI GROUP Trust Fund Team thinks gold is running in a correction in the downward trend. Attention on the top edge of the downlink channel, if cannot break effectively, the downward trend will be completed. There is a certain space on the upside intraday, but still suggests short thinking in the downlink channel.

Upside resistance: 1246.50 / 1255.40 / 1263.40

Downside support: 1239.90 / 1234.30 / 1212.70

Silver:

US international capital inflows in November released yesterday to the US economy, silver rose rapidly, but didn’t affect for a long time. Currently silver is in shrinking running, the volatility is small. Our recommendation is watching.

Upside resistance: 20.20 / 20.50

Downside support: 20 / 19.30

This article only represents the personal point of author, for reference only, not as a basis for the investment. Enter the market accordingly at your own risk.