Scotland says to unveil single market Brexit plan this week
Scotland will publish proposals this week for how it can remain in
the European single market after Britain leaves the European Union in
order to avoid the "national disaster" of a "hard Brexit", the Scottish
government said on Sunday.
British Prime Minister Theresa May has
said she will trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, the formal
process of leaving the EU, by the end of March to kick off two years of
However, her plans for those negotiations have been
shrouded in secrecy and businesses and investors fear Britain might seek
a "hard Brexit" where controlling immigration takes priority over
access to the European single market.
While the United Kingdom as
a whole voted to leave the EU in the June 23 referendum, Scotland
strongly backed remaining in the bloc.
The country's devolved
nationalist government has said it wants to stay part of the EU when the
rest of the UK leaves, and on Tuesday will put forward plans for
remaining in the 500 million-consumer single market should that prove
"In line with our commitments to explore all options
to protect Scotland's interests, we will set out compromise proposals
which, while not conferring the full benefits of EU membership, would
mitigate the Brexit damage," said Michael Russell, the Scottish
government's minister for EU negotiations.
"At the heart of our plan is a framework to keep Scotland's place in the European Single Market."
Russell said such a plan faced "complexities" but a "hard Brexit" threatened 80,000 Scottish jobs over a decade.
Brexit - Scotland proposals for how it can remain in the single market
Later this week Scotland will publish proposals for how it can remain in Europe's single market
line with our commitments to explore all options to protect Scotland's
interests, we will set out compromise proposals which, while not
conferring the full benefits of EU membership, would mitigate the Brexit
damage," said Michael Russell, the Scottish government's minister for
EU negotiations."At the heart of our plan is a framework to keep
Scotland's place in the European Single Market."
UK's Rogers tells colleagues to challenge "muddled thinking" over Brexit
The out-going EU ambassador fires off a few words of warning 4 Jan
Ivan Rogers resigned yesterday in a surprise move that gave the pound a
wobble and in his resignation letter he has launched a stream of thinly
veiled attacks on those in the govt that he's supposed to have been
Sir Ivan's note to staff, obtained by the BBC, said:
"I hope you will continue to challenge ill-founded arguments and
muddled thinking and that you will never be afraid to speak the truth to
those in power.
"I hope that you will support each other in
those difficult moments where you have to deliver messages that are
disagreeable to those who need to hear them."
"Government will only achieve the best for the country if it
harnesses the best experience we have"
Rogers was due to step
down in November after serving a 4-year term which included advising
former PM Cameron on his EU-deal prior to the referendum. The rot will
have started from there.
The WSJ reports that French president Hollande has been asking banks what would get them to come to France
CEO Jamie Dimon was apparently asked by Hollande in October what would
get UK banks employees running over to France. He was told that the
chances were slim unless the French relaxed it's labour laws (more
chance of the moon being made of cheese).
Hollande supposedly said that change would come and would happen under his successor.
GBP EUR Slides as Supreme Court Ruling Approaches (James Lovick)
pound continues its very gradual slide lower against the Euro in the
first week of this year. GBP EUR is under pressure as we now inch closer
March, the deadline that UK Prime Minister Theresa May has stated she
will invoke Article 50, the mechanism required to pull Britain out of
the European Union. The Supreme Court Ruling which may arrive as soon as
next week is also going to be a huge driver for GBP EUR and will in my
view create new direction. Those clients who have a requirement to
either buy Euros or sell Euros would be wise to make contact to look at
the options available to you and how to try and maximise on the exchange
rates as the better levels become available.
a very positive week for the UK with very strong numbers for the
manufacturing, construction and services sectors as per the Purchasing
Managers Index (PMI) the pound has not seen any real boost higher as the
uncertainties surround Brexit keeps pressure on sterling.
retail sales numbers and consumer confidence figures are released this
morning which should give some clues as to the outlook on the high
street in the Eurozone and could impact on Euro exchange rates.
While she didn't go as
far as to say she would ditch single market access in favour of being
free to control EU immigration, she certainly appeared to hint at it. Mrs
May said the UK would have control of its borders and the best possible
trade deal with the EU. She didn't commit to maintaining "single market
access", and she suggested that people who thought the country could
keep "bits of EU membership" were missing the point that it "would be
leaving". This failure to commit to the
single market will be music to the ears of Brexiteers. To Remainers it
will raise concerns that a "hard Brexit" could be on the offing. But,
as with so much in the Brexit debate, clarity over the UK's position in
the negotiations, due to start very soon, remains lacking.
And, more importantly for financial markets, the Financial Times headlines:
May has indicated that Britain will leave the EU single market as she
set out her determination to strike a post-Brexit trading deal that
allows her to control immigration from the rest of Europe.
May said she was not interested in trying to "keep bits of membership"
of the EU, rather that she wanted a bespoke British deal with the rest
of Europe that delivered "the best possible deal for UK companies".
The Guardian: Brexit Could Cost London Over 230,000 Finance Jobs
Thousands of financial services staff
could lose their jobs if London loses euro clearing and passporting
rights after Brexit.
It is estimated that Brexit could trigger over than 230,000 job losses in Britain’s financial services sector if
euro clearing shifts to continental Europe and full access to the
bloc’s single market is lost, according to top industry officials.
is currently the world’s biggest hub for clearing euro-denominated
financial contracts but some continental policymakers want this shifted
to the eurozone after the Brexit.
As per a report in The Guardian, Xavier Rolet, Chief Executive of the London
Stock Exchange, said that the Brexit could have an impact on
“unimaginably large” contracts which are cleared through the City and
which might need to be transferred to the 27 remaining EU member states
or other financial centres.
has called for a five-year transition period for Britain to leave the
EU, but the triggering of Article 50 in March could prompt banks to
implement contingency plans to shift business out of London.
result of the referendum has prompted several European centres to pitch
for the business cleared mainly through the London Clearing House which
is operated by the LSE.
reported by Finance Magnates last September, London’s Investment banks
were reported to be planning for the loss of euro clearing after the
Brexit with France or Germany expected to succeed London over the clearing of $570 billion worth of euro derivatives after the UK.
Even ahead of the 23 June referendum HSBC said that it could move 1,000 roles to Paris in a preemptive move before the Brexit was completed. Douglas Flint, HSBC’s chairman said
that banks without operations elsewhere in the EU will likely trigger
migration plans immediately after Brexit talks begin in March,
estimating that “tens of thousands” of jobs are linked to EU
currently have passporting rights, allowing them to operate across the
eurozone from a base in Britain which they could lose after Brexit.
UK may have to delay triggering article 50 - Independent
More good news for Theresa May
Independent paper is reporting that the triggering of article 50 could
be delayed for months due to Northern Ireland's political upheaval.
say that if May tries to trigger art50 before the Northern Irish
Assembly is in place, there could be grounds for Northern Ireland to
declare the move illegal as May will need approval from the assembly.
The assembly is heading for snap elections which could take at least two months.
a lot of 'if's', 'and's' and 'maybe's' to the story so it may not be as
inflammatory as is being written but it is further uncertainty in the
A grey day for the pound as May talks tough about Brexit
The pound charts mirror the current UK weather, grey, soggy and miserable.
Times reported that Theresa May will issue the strongest speech yet on
Brexit, and despite it just being a sources story, quite rightly, the
pound has taken a big hit. Last week we had a similar episode when May
said that Brexit means Brexit, even though that's been her rhetoric from
The market is constantly looking for
clarification on what approach the government will take on the single
market. If the Times is to be believed, and their sources are very much
worth considering, then the UK is potentially heading for a full "out",
door slammed shut exit. That's what the market is fearing and that's
what it sees as a worst case for the UK.
I very much
doubt that will be May's actual approach unless she really is thinking
about hitting the reset button. Both Europe and the UK are far too
intrinsically linked to separate with a axe blow. The UK can't just sail
off to somewhere warmer and open up shop. There will be an approach by
the UK government to keep important ties that work for both sides but
that's all to come in the negotiations to come.
important factor to remember that this is all political, and sensible
thinking doesn't come into it. The EU can't let the UK leave, and on the
face of it, allow us to keep the good parts, or other countries will
follow us out the door. They have to balance that up with what damage
that approach might do to their other members. The UK has a lot to lose
from businesses and investors leaving the UK. What will be important is
how both sides try save face with whatever deals they strike.
now we have to deal with what's in front of us and it's purely that
half out/all out situation the market is trading on. We're now preparing
for 'all out' remarks that may come from May, and until we hear exactly
what she's going to say, you can expect volatility to remain high in
We had the first dip below 1.20 since the
flash crash, and even though we've bounced since, that's shaken the
walls of support down here.