Brexit: Everything You Need To Know

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Join date: 2012.10.01
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UK's May tells EU leaders she wants an early Brexit deal

UK PM May has been attending the European Council summit in Brussels

BBC reporting.

The headline didn't come from May herself, who left the meeting without making comment, but Irish PM Enda Kenny revealed what Mrs May had told them, saying:

 "She would like to have the question of UK citizens living in Europe and European citizens living in the UK dealt with in the early part of discussions that take place."

Kenny also said the Irish Republic would not sign a bilateral deal with the UK and the UK had to agree its future relationship with the EU first.

After Mrs May's departure, the 27 other EU leaders met informally for 20 minutes to discuss their approach to Brexit negotiations.

They agreed that European Commission official Michel Barnier will lead talks for the EU - although MEPs are said to want a greater say.

European Council president Donald Tusk said the "short, informal meeting" had:

  "reconfirmed our principles, meaning the indivisibility of the four freedoms, the balance of rights and obligations and the rule 'no negotiations without notification'".

European Parliament president Martin Schulz has warned that negotiations could be vetoed if MEPs are not fully involved.

The Beeb has more here

Join date: 2012.10.01
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Scotland says to unveil single market Brexit plan this week

Scotland will publish proposals this week for how it can remain in the European single market after Britain leaves the European Union in order to avoid the "national disaster" of a "hard Brexit", the Scottish government said on Sunday.

British Prime Minister Theresa May has said she will trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, the formal process of leaving the EU, by the end of March to kick off two years of exit talks.

However, her plans for those negotiations have been shrouded in secrecy and businesses and investors fear Britain might seek a "hard Brexit" where controlling immigration takes priority over access to the European single market.

While the United Kingdom as a whole voted to leave the EU in the June 23 referendum, Scotland strongly backed remaining in the bloc.

The country's devolved nationalist government has said it wants to stay part of the EU when the rest of the UK leaves, and on Tuesday will put forward plans for remaining in the 500 million-consumer single market should that prove impossible.

"In line with our commitments to explore all options to protect Scotland's interests, we will set out compromise proposals which, while not conferring the full benefits of EU membership, would mitigate the Brexit damage," said Michael Russell, the Scottish government's minister for EU negotiations.

"At the heart of our plan is a framework to keep Scotland's place in the European Single Market."

Russell said such a plan faced "complexities" but a "hard Brexit" threatened 80,000 Scottish jobs over a decade.

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Brexit - Scotland proposals for how it can remain in the single market

Later this week Scotland will publish proposals for how it can remain in Europe's single market

  • "In line with our commitments to explore all options to protect Scotland's interests, we will set out compromise proposals which, while not conferring the full benefits of EU membership, would mitigate the Brexit damage," said Michael Russell, the Scottish government's minister for EU negotiations."At the heart of our plan is a framework to keep Scotland's place in the European Single Market."
Join date: 2014.04.08
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Thanks for such interesting thread,  I'm keeping close eye on the Brexit further development. 
Join date: 2012.10.01
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UK's Rogers tells colleagues to challenge "muddled thinking" over Brexit

The out-going EU ambassador fires off a few words of warning 4 Jan

Sir Ivan Rogers resigned yesterday in a surprise move that gave the pound a wobble and in his resignation letter he has launched a stream of thinly veiled attacks on those in the govt that he's supposed to have been advising.

Sir Ivan's note to staff, obtained by the BBC, said:

"I hope you will continue to challenge ill-founded arguments and muddled thinking and that you will never be afraid to speak the truth to those in power.

"I hope that you will support each other in those difficult moments where you have to deliver messages that are disagreeable to those who need to hear them."

 "Government will only achieve the best for the country if it harnesses the best experience we have"

Rogers was due to step down in November after serving a 4-year term which included advising former PM Cameron on his EU-deal prior to the referendum. The rot will have started from there.

Rogers' resignation letter in full here

Join date: 2012.10.01
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Hollande goes begging for Brexit banks

The WSJ reports that French president Hollande has been asking banks what would get them to come to France

JPM's CEO Jamie Dimon was apparently asked by Hollande in October what would get UK banks employees running over to France. He was told that the chances were slim unless the French relaxed it's labour laws (more chance of the moon being made of cheese).

Hollande supposedly said that change would come and would happen under his successor.

The full article (ungated) from the WSJ is here.
Join date: 2012.10.01
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GBP EUR Slides as Supreme Court Ruling Approaches (James Lovick)

The pound continues its very gradual slide lower against the Euro in the first week of this year. GBP EUR is under pressure as we now inch closer to 31st March, the deadline that UK Prime Minister Theresa May has stated she will invoke Article 50, the mechanism required to pull Britain out of the European Union. The Supreme Court Ruling which may arrive as soon as next week is also going to be a huge driver for GBP EUR and will in my view create new direction. Those clients who have a requirement to either buy Euros or sell Euros would be wise to make contact to look at the options available to you and how to try and maximise on the exchange rates as the better levels become available.

Despite a very positive week for the UK with very strong numbers for the manufacturing, construction and services sectors as per the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) the pound has not seen any real boost higher as the uncertainties surround Brexit keeps pressure on sterling.

European retail sales numbers and consumer confidence figures are released this morning which should give some clues as to the outlook on the high street in the Eurozone and could impact on Euro exchange rates.

Join date: 2012.10.01
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  • While she didn't go as far as to say she would ditch single market access in favour of being free to control EU immigration, she certainly appeared to hint at it.
    Mrs May said the UK would have control of its borders and the best possible trade deal with the EU. She didn't commit to maintaining "single market access", and she suggested that people who thought the country could keep "bits of EU membership" were missing the point that it "would be leaving".
    This failure to commit to the single market will be music to the ears of Brexiteers. To Remainers it will raise concerns that a "hard Brexit" could be on the offing.
    But, as with so much in the Brexit debate, clarity over the UK's position in the negotiations, due to start very soon, remains lacking.
And, more importantly for financial markets, the Financial Times headlines:
  • Theresa May has indicated that Britain will leave the EU single market as she set out her determination to strike a post-Brexit trading deal that allows her to control immigration from the rest of Europe.
  • Mrs May said she was not interested in trying to "keep bits of membership" of the EU, rather that she wanted a bespoke British deal with the rest of Europe that delivered "the best possible deal for UK companies".
Join date: 2012.10.01
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It remains to be seen whether UK can stay in single market after exit

The Junior Brexit minister David Jones in being quizzed by a committee

  • Whether a full membership of the single market can be consistent with leaving the European Union is a matter that remains to be seen in the negotiations

Signs that the UK is still looking at the 'have your cake and eat it' scenario.

Join date: 2012.10.01
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The Guardian: Brexit Could Cost London Over 230,000 Finance Jobs

Thousands of financial services staff could lose their jobs if London loses euro clearing and passporting rights after Brexit.

It is estimated that Brexit could trigger over than 230,000 job losses in Britain’s financial services sector if euro clearing shifts to continental Europe and full access to the bloc’s single market is lost, according to top industry officials.

London is currently the world’s biggest hub for clearing euro-denominated financial contracts but some continental policymakers want this shifted to the eurozone after the Brexit.


As per a report in The Guardian, Xavier Rolet, Chief Executive of the London Stock Exchange, said that the Brexit could have an impact on “unimaginably large” contracts which are cleared through the City and which might need to be transferred to the 27 remaining EU member states or other financial centres.

Rolet has called for a five-year transition period for Britain to leave the EU, but the triggering of Article 50 in March could prompt banks to implement contingency plans to shift business out of London.

The result of the referendum has prompted several European centres to pitch for the business cleared mainly through the London Clearing House which is operated by the LSE.

As reported by Finance Magnates last September, London’s Investment banks were reported to be planning for the loss of euro clearing after the Brexit with France or Germany expected to succeed London over the clearing of $570 billion worth of euro derivatives after the UK.

Even ahead of the 23 June referendum HSBC said that it could move 1,000 roles to Paris in a preemptive move before the Brexit was completed. Douglas Flint, HSBC’s chairman said that banks without operations elsewhere in the EU will likely trigger migration plans immediately after Brexit talks begin in March, estimating that “tens of thousands” of jobs are linked to EU “passporting” rights.

Banks currently have passporting rights, allowing them to operate across the eurozone from a base in Britain which they could lose after Brexit.

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Join date: 2012.10.01
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UK may have to delay triggering article 50 - Independent

More good news for Theresa May

The UK's Independent paper is reporting that the triggering of article 50 could be delayed for months due to Northern Ireland's political upheaval.

They say that if May tries to trigger art50 before the Northern Irish Assembly is in place, there could be grounds for Northern Ireland to declare the move illegal as May will need approval from the assembly.

The assembly is heading for snap elections which could take at least two months.

There's a lot of 'if's', 'and's' and 'maybe's' to the story so it may not be as inflammatory as is being written but it is further uncertainty in the Brexit process.

The full story from the Indy is here.

Join date: 2012.10.01
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Join date: 2012.10.01
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UK Times reports: Trump says Brexit will end up being a great thing

The UK Times report on remarks from president elect of the US Trump in an interview

  • Brexit will "end up being a great thing"
  • Says Britons voted for Brexit because the UK wanted its own identity
  • On the prospect of a trade deal with UK, Trump tells the Times: "we're gonna work very hard to get it done quickly and done properly. good for both sides"

Headlines via Reuters


  • Says to invite UK PM May to visit him "right after" he gets into the White House
  • Says other countries would follow Britain's lead in leaving the European union
  • Says he will agree a nuclear weapons ­reduction deal with president Putin of Russia in return for lifting us sanctions
  • Says Russia's intervention in Syria has been "a very bad thing" that led to a "terrible ­humanitarian situation"
  • Says looking ­forward to visiting Britain, makes positive comments about Queen Elizabeth
  • Urges Britain to veto any new UN security council resolution critical of Israel
  • Says he will appoint Jared Kushner, his son-in-law, to broker a middle east peace deal
  • When asked about the prospect of a nuclear arms reduction deal with Russia, says stocks of nuclear weapons should be cut "very substantially"
Join date: 2012.10.01
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A grey day for the pound as May talks tough about Brexit

The pound charts mirror the current UK weather, grey, soggy and miserable.

The Times reported that Theresa May will issue the strongest speech yet on Brexit, and despite it just being a sources story, quite rightly, the pound has taken a big hit. Last week we had a similar episode when May said that Brexit means Brexit, even though that's been her rhetoric from the start.

The market is constantly looking for clarification on what approach the government will take on the single market. If the Times is to be believed, and their sources are very much worth considering, then the UK is potentially heading for a full "out", door slammed shut exit. That's what the market is fearing and that's what it sees as a worst case for the UK. 

I very much doubt that will be May's actual approach unless she really is thinking about hitting the reset button. Both Europe and the UK are far too intrinsically linked to separate with a axe blow. The UK can't just sail off to somewhere warmer and open up shop. There will be an approach by the UK government to keep important ties that work for both sides but that's all to come in the negotiations to come.

The important factor to remember that this is all political, and sensible thinking doesn't come into it. The EU can't let the UK leave, and on the face of it, allow us to keep the good parts, or other countries will follow us out the door. They have to balance that up with what damage that approach might do to their other members. The UK has a lot to lose from businesses and investors leaving the UK. What will be important is how both sides try save face with whatever deals they strike.

For now we have to deal with what's in front of us and it's purely that half out/all out situation the market is trading on. We're now preparing for 'all out' remarks that may come from May, and until we hear exactly what she's going to say, you can expect volatility to remain high in the pound.

We had the first dip below 1.20 since the flash crash, and even though we've bounced since, that's shaken the walls of support down here.


Join date: 2012.10.01
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UK's May ready to announce Britain will leave EU single market

rexit reporting from Bloomberg, though they note it's a devloping story at this stage

  • It's a pre-empting of her speech on Tuesday (UK time)
  • Says she will rule out partial or 'associate' membership of the EU, "anything that leaves us half-in, half out"
Bloomberg posting to the web on this, link, but expect more as the story is added to.

The speech is available in the UK press already:

May will speak at 1145GMT

Has 4 principles guiding Brexit:
  1. "certainty and clarity"
  2. "a stronger Britain"
  3. "a fairer Britain"
  4. a truly Global Britain"