Brexit: Everything You Need To Know

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Join date: 2012.10.01
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Brexit minister Davis says Article 50 timeline remains the same

UK Brexit minister Davis said court decision may not change plans to initiate Article 50 near the end of Q1

  • Government intends to trigger Article 50 by end of March
  • We believe in and value the independence of judiciary
  • Government will appeal to Supreme Court this week
  • Brexit timetable remains the same if Supreme Court hears case in December

Davis said there will be a parliamentary vote but that vote won't be binding.

There is nothing new here but that Supreme Court decision will be huge.           

Join date: 2012.10.01
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UK Supreme Court accepts Brexit appeal

Schedules hearing  on Dec 5-8

  • The UK Supreme Court has accepted an appeal in the cases challenging the governments ability to trigger Brexit without a vote of Parliament
  • 11 judges are to hear the Brexit appeal.  
  • The ruling will be made in the New Year. 
Join date: 2012.10.01
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Leaked memo says the UK government still has no overall Brexit plan

BBC and The Times both claim access to a leaked memo 15 Nov

  • the government has no overall Brexit plan and a negotiating strategy may not be agreed by the cabinet for six months
  • Whitehall is working on 500 Brexit-related projects and could need 30,000 extra staff
  • there is still no common exit strategy "because of divisions within the cabinet"

The leaked Cabinet Office memo - written by an un-named consultant and entitled "Brexit Update" of 7 November - suggests it will take another six months before the government decides precisely what it wants to achieve from Brexit or agrees on its priorities.

A government spokesman said it "didn't recognise" the claims made in the memo.

According to The Times the memo says:

"Every department has developed a 'bottom-up' plan of what the impact of Brexit could be - and its plan to cope with the 'worst case'.

"Although necessary, this falls considerably short of having a 'government plan for Brexit' because it has no prioritisation and no link to the overall negotiation strategy."

Plenty of work to be done still but the government's main focus right now will be winning their Supreme Court appeal due to be heard from 5 Dec

Join date: 2012.10.01
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Brexit details off the menu when meeting May says Merkel

Comments from Angela Merkel

  • We accept that the British government has said that it will be invoking article 50 by end of March
  • Won't be able to discuss Brexit in detail with May as she has not triggered art 50

May adding some comments too;

  • Our work is on track on Brexit
  • Stands ready to trigger art 50 next year
  • We support EU actions to deal with the root cause of migration
  • Agreed to keep up the pressure on Russia
Join date: 2012.10.01
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Hammond says will get UK ready for Brexit challenge

Britain's first budget plan since the Brexit vote will seek to get the economy prepared for the challenges of leaving the European Union and help struggling families through tough times ahead, finance minister Philip Hammond said on Sunday.

But Hammond said that levels of public debt were "eye-wateringly" high and he would not announce a big increase in spending when he spells out the economic plans of Britain's new government on Wednesday.

"We've got to make sure that the prosperity that comes from seizing opportunities ahead is shared across the country and across the income distribution," he told BBC television.

He was echoing promises by Prime Minister Theresa May to work for "just managing" Britons, many of whom delivered the biggest political upset in generations in June by voting to leave the EU.

Earlier on Sunday, the Treasury said Hammond would announce 1.3 billion pounds ($1.60 billion) in new spending on roads as part of his plans to bolster the economy with two years of talks on leaving the EU due to begin early next year.

Hammond said an important part of the discussions would focus on transition arrangements for the period after Britain leaves the EU but will probably still be negotiating the terms of its new relationship with the bloc.

With Britain's economy facing a slowdown next year and in 2018 after the Brexit vote, Hammond has dropped the target of his predecessor George Osborne of turning Britain's budget deficit into a surplus by 2020.

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Join date: 2012.10.01
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Brexit - Tony Blair comeback? Meets with George Osborne

  • Its understood Blair has met with former chancellor of the exchequer George Osborne to discuss Britain's future relations with the EU (The Sunday Times reported)
  • Blair's office said that Brexit would feature in what Mr Blair had to say in the future, with more details to come in the new year.
Join date: 2012.10.01
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Brexit - The Economist 2017 prediction: "Theresa May will have achieved little of substance"

A Brexit view from The Economist

They reckon that "By the end of 2017 Theresa May will have achieved little of substance"
  • Britain is now in unknown, volatile territory
  • When she triggers Article 50, Mrs May will begin a two-year countdown to Brexit. The first couple of months will bring bureaucratic throat-clearing (the European Commission will lead the talks, with the European Council breathing down its neck). In the run-up to France's presidential election, in April and May, mainstream French politicians will talk tough about Brexit to counter ­Marine Le Pen, the right-wing populist who wants her country to hold its own referendum on leaving the EU. Shortly afterwards German politics will turn inwards ahead of a parliamentary election in September, ­probably re-engaging in earnest with Brexit only in November, once a new coalition has emerged in Berlin.
Join date: 2016.11.27
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I am not totally convined that Brexit will happen in the end. There are a lot of potential things that could stop this happening. The main problem now is the uncertainty. This is likely to continue for a long time yet.
Join date: 2012.10.01
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Germany’s Slowing Economy Highlights Need for “Comprehensive” Post-Brexit Trade Deal With UK

Germany’s growth engine slowed more than expected in the third quarter, as exports fell in the wake of the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union (EU). According to one German official, the slowdown hastens the need to reach a new post-Brexit trade agreement with London.

Europe’s largest economy expanded just 0.2% in the third quarter, halving the previous quarter’s growth rate, the Federal Statistics Office reported last week. A median estimate of economists called for 0.3% growth. Exports detracted from growth, while household and state spending increased further.

While the German economy is expected to end the year on a high note, some are worried about the country’s trade outlook in the wake of Brexit. Ilse Aigner, Germany’s economy minister, recently said that Brexit poses a “high risk” to Germany, seeing as how the UK is one of Bavaria’s “most important trading partners.”

Meanwhile, German Chancellor Angela Merkel recently indicated she was willing to compromise on the issue of mobility following the UK’s referendum. Free movement is a central tenant of pan-European integration, one that the UK government opposes in the wake of Brexit.

The UK government must invoke Article 50 of the EU Treaty before beginning a new round of trade talks with Brussels. British Prime Minister Theresa May has indicated she intends to notify Brussels of her intent to leave the EU by the end of March.

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Another legal challenge regarding Brexit on its way

BBC reporting 28 Nov 2016

The BBC has learned that the UK govt is facing a legal battle over whether the UK stays inside the single market after it has left the EU,

Lawyers say uncertainty over the UK's European Economic Area membership means ministers could be stopped from taking Britain out of the single market.

They will argue the UK will not leave the EEA automatically when it leaves the EU and Parliament should decide, but the government said EEA membership ends when the UK leaves the EU.

Lawyers expect there to be a legal challenge to decide whether it is up to Parliament or government to make the decision to take the UK out of the single market.

If the courts back this assessment and give Parliament the final say over EEA membership, then MPs could vote to ensure that Britain stays in the single market until a long-term trading relationship with the EU has been agreed.

The EEA was set up in the 1990s to extend the single market to non-EU members like Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein.All EU member states are in the European Economic Area and it had been assumed that when Britain leaves the EU it would automatically leave the EEA as well.

But some lawyers argue that leaving the EEA would not be automatic and would happen only if Britain formally withdraws by triggering Article 127 of the EEA agreement. The legal question is focused on whether the UK is a member of the EEA in its own right or because it is a member of the EU.

More from the Beeb here

Join date: 2012.10.01
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UK Supreme Court to begin its deliberations on Brexit today

The UK government's appeal against the High Court ruling begins today 5 Dec

We posted on the original 3 Nov decision here and now the highest court in the land will begin a landmark legal hearing into whether Parliament's consent is required before official Brexit negotiations can begin.

The High Court ruled that rights conferred by Parliament when it passed the 1972 European Communities Act - which paved the way for the UK to join the then European Economic Community - were likely to be affected by Brexit.

As a result, it concluded, any process leading to the potential withdrawal of rights could only be determined by Parliament.

Here's the key points:

  • The case is about whether the government needs Parliament to trigger the process for the UK to leave the EU
  • The government argues it can start the Article 50 process using "prerogative powers", a remnant of the era of all-powerful kings and queens
  • Justices will be ruling on who has the legal power to change the rights of British citizens

It's worth noting though that this petition is not designed to prevent Brexit but that Parliament should be allowed to have its say. Indeed Gina Miller leading the campaign last week conceded on BBC Radio that Brexit was still very likely to go ahead.

Govt ministers will have a number of options if they lose the appeal, but it has been reported that a 16-word bill is being prepared which could be fast-tracked though Parliament, asking MPs and peers "to give permission" to the government to trigger Article 50 in time to meet the March deadline.

And yes folks, you can watch the whole thing live here but don't forget that this part of the process is scheduled to last a few days ( 5 to 8 Dec. Start times: 5 Dec - 11:00 GMT 6 Dec - 10:15  7 Dec - 10:30  8 Dec - 10:15) and a decision not due until January.

However, given the market's penchant for dancing on hot coals right now we might expect some reaction to headlines/comments in the meantime.

Full back story from the Beeb here

Join date: 2012.10.01
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UK MPs to vote on Article 50 timetable today

In a turnaround UK PM May has agreed to a vote on triggering Article 50 7 Dec

The news came out last night so not new but I'm just highlighting for good order and its potential impact on GBP pairs.

PM Theresa May has agreed to publish her plan for leaving the EU in order to avoid a possible Tory rebellion and defeat in the Commons.The government hopes this will persuade MPs to support its schedule for starting the process of leaving the EU.

Labour - which initiated the debate - said it would back the timetable but had wanted scrutiny of Brexit plans. Labour's shadow Brexit secretary Keir Starmer put forward a motion to be debated on Wednesday, with support from some on the Conservative back benches.

The party wanted to force the government to reveal its negotiating stance before formal talks with EU leaders get under way. Downing Street tabled an amendment agreeing to outline its strategy, in exchange for MP's approval of the government's timetable for triggering Article 50.


Join date: 2012.10.01
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What Brexit? McDonalds to move its international tax base to the UK

Maccas is moving its  international tax base to the United Kingdom from Luxembourg

  • Creating a new international holding company
  • Domiciled in the UK
  • To receive the majority of royalties from licensing deals outside the United States
Adds Reuters:
The reorganization comes amid an investigation by the EU into what it says are sweetheart tax deals that smaller states in the bloc offer to multinational companies to lure jobs and investment.
Join date: 2012.10.01
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UK government facing new Brexit court case

Opponents to Britain leaving the European Union will launch a fresh legal action this week, which could further hamper Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit plans, The Sunday Times reported.

The newspaper said campaigners will write to the UK government on Monday saying they are taking it to the High Court in an effort to keep Britain in the single market.

It said the claimants will seek a judicial review in an attempt to give lawmakers a new power of veto over the terms on which Britain leaves the EU.

They argue the government “has no mandate” to withdraw from the single market because it was not on the referendum ballot paper on June 23 and was not part of the ruling Conservative Party's manifesto for the 2015 general election.

May has said she wants to invoke Article 50 of the EU's Lisbon Treaty by the end of March, kicking off up to two years of exit negotiations.

However the High Court ruled last month that Article 50 cannot be triggered without parliament's assent. That ruling is being challenged by the government in Britain's Supreme Court.

The Sunday Times said the new court case hinges on whether the government would also have to trigger another legal measure — Article 127 of the European Economic Area agreement — in order to quit the single market.

It said ministers argue Britain automatically exits the single market when it quits the EU. But, it said if the claimants win the new case, the government would have to gain the approval of lawmakers.

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Join date: 2012.10.01
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Brexit Summarized (In A 10 Second Clip From The EU Summit Today)