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Q2 2016 US advance GDP 1.2% vs 2.6% exp q/q annualised



Details from the Q2 2016 US advance GDP data report 29 July 2016

  • Q1 1.1%. Revised to 0.8%
  • Personal consumption 4.2% vs 4.4% exp. Prior 1.5%. Revised to 1.6%
  • PCE 1.9% vs 2.0% exp. Prior 0.2%. Revised to 0.3%
  • Core PCE 1.7% vs 1.7% exp. Prior 2.0%. Revised to 2.1%
  • GDP sales 2.4% vs 3.2% exp. Prior 1.3%
  • Employment costs 0.6% vs 0.6% exp. Prior 0.6%
  • Wages 0.6% vs 0.7% prior
  • Benefits 0.5% vs 0.5% prior
  • GDP deflator 2.2% vs 1.8% exp. Prior 0.4%. Revised to 0.5%
  • Exports 1.4% vs -0.7% prior
  • Imports -0.4% vs -0.6% prior

Ouch on the headline. Consumer spending near expectation may save this report from being an outright stinker.

So it's a bit of a mixed bag. The headline is way off expectations but consumer spending rose and prices held up, even taking into account the drop in the core. It's another sign that the US economy has many different levels and they're not all pulling in the same direction.

Trade was better in Q2 but structure investment was very poor in both residential and business sectors. Residential fell 6.1% vs 7.1% prior, business -7.9% vs 0.1% in Q1. Government spending fell 0.9% from its 1.6% gain in Q1.

Durable goods took up the baton for the jump in spending.

 

US Shoppers' Mood Sours in July: UoM

Confidence among America's shoppers worsened in July, a private survey confirmed on Friday, pointing to waning household confidence in economy.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final Consumer Confidence Index fell to 90.0 points during the seventh month of the year, down from June's final print of 93.5, when it stepped down from a one-year top.

A preliminary print showed the gauge at 90.4, missing original estimates that had pointed to an unchanged reading in July.

 

UBS Debunks "Strong Consumer" Farce Saying Consumer Credit Cycle Is In "Later Innings"

"Our analysis...seems to support the thesis that while lending is extending to riskier consumers, the finances of those consumers are not materially improving. The recipe is likely to result in consumer delinquencies that will not fall in coming quarters, consistent with our broader thesis that the credit cycle is in the later innings."

 

July 2016 US ISM manufacturing PMI 52.6 vs 53.0 exp

Details of the July 2016 US ISM manufacturing PMI data report 1 August 2016

  • Employment 49.4 vs 50.3 exp. Prior 50.4
  • New orders 56.9 vs 57.0 prior
  • Prices paid 55.0 vs 60.0 exp. Prior 60.5

A tad softer on the headline and employment slipping once again is not good news. New orders held up well enough though. USDJPY dropped a few pips to 102.21from around 102.35 but has recovered all that back. It seems there's little interest still.

 

June 2016 US personal income 0.2% vs 0.3% exp m/m

Details from the June 2016 US personal income, spending and PCE data report 2 August 2016

  • Spending 0.4% vs 0.3% exp m/m. Prior 0.4%
  • Real spending 0.3% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Prior 0.3%. Revised to 0.2%

PCE data

  • Core PCE 1.6% vs 1.6% exp y/y. Prior 1.6%
  • 0.1% vs 0.1% exp m/m. Prior 0.2%
  • PCE deflator 0.9% vs 0.9% exp m/m. Prior 0.95
  • 0.1% vs 0.1% exp m/m. Prior 0.2%

On the income front, wages and disposable income rose 0.3% and 0.2% apiece. For spending, durable spending was down again but non-durables jumped 0.7% from 0.45 in May.

 

July 2016 US ISM New York business conditions 60.7 vs 45.4 prior

July 2016 US ISM New York business conditions index 2 August 2016

  • Employment 45.3 vs 35.9 prior
  • Prices paid 48.3 vs 55.0 prior
  • 6m expected demand 62.1 vs 57.1 prior
 

US MBA mortgage applications -3.5% vs -11.2% prior

US MBA mortgage market data report week ending 29 July 2016

  • Mortgage market index 526.8 vs 545.8 prior
  • Purchase index 216.9 vs 222.2 prior
  • Refi index 2315.2 vs 2415.5 prior
  • 30yr mortgage rate 3.67% vs 3.695 prior
 

July 2016 US ADP employment 179k vs 170k exp

Details from the July 2016 US ADP employment report 3 August 2016

 

July 2016 US ISM non manufacturing PMI 55.5 vs 56.0 exp

Details form the July 2016 US ISM non-manufacturing PMI data report 3 August 2016

  • Activity 59.3 vs 59.5 exp. Prior 59.5
  • Employment 51.4 vs 52.7 prior
  • New orders 60.3 vs 59.9 prior
  • Prices paid 51.9 vs 55.5 prior

Nothing too shocking from the report. Lower employment and input costs are offset by better new orders.

 

US initial jobless claims 269k vs 265k exp

US initial jobless claims week ending 29 July 2016

  • Prior 266k
  • Continued claims 2.138m vs 2.130m exp. Prior 2.139m. Revised to 2.144m
  • 4 week avg 260.25k vs 256.5k prior
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