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#46

June 2016 US personal income 0.2% vs 0.3% exp m/m

Details from the June 2016 US personal income, spending and PCE data report 2 August 2016

  • Spending 0.4% vs 0.3% exp m/m. Prior 0.4%
  • Real spending 0.3% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Prior 0.3%. Revised to 0.2%

PCE data

  • Core PCE 1.6% vs 1.6% exp y/y. Prior 1.6%
  • 0.1% vs 0.1% exp m/m. Prior 0.2%
  • PCE deflator 0.9% vs 0.9% exp m/m. Prior 0.95
  • 0.1% vs 0.1% exp m/m. Prior 0.2%

On the income front, wages and disposable income rose 0.3% and 0.2% apiece. For spending, durable spending was down again but non-durables jumped 0.7% from 0.45 in May.

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#47

July 2016 US ISM New York business conditions 60.7 vs 45.4 prior

July 2016 US ISM New York business conditions index 2 August 2016

  • Employment 45.3 vs 35.9 prior
  • Prices paid 48.3 vs 55.0 prior
  • 6m expected demand 62.1 vs 57.1 prior
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#48

US MBA mortgage applications -3.5% vs -11.2% prior

US MBA mortgage market data report week ending 29 July 2016

  • Mortgage market index 526.8 vs 545.8 prior
  • Purchase index 216.9 vs 222.2 prior
  • Refi index 2315.2 vs 2415.5 prior
  • 30yr mortgage rate 3.67% vs 3.695 prior
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#49

July 2016 US ADP employment 179k vs 170k exp

Details from the July 2016 US ADP employment report 3 August 2016

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#50

July 2016 US ISM non manufacturing PMI 55.5 vs 56.0 exp

Details form the July 2016 US ISM non-manufacturing PMI data report 3 August 2016

  • Activity 59.3 vs 59.5 exp. Prior 59.5
  • Employment 51.4 vs 52.7 prior
  • New orders 60.3 vs 59.9 prior
  • Prices paid 51.9 vs 55.5 prior

Nothing too shocking from the report. Lower employment and input costs are offset by better new orders.

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#51

US initial jobless claims 269k vs 265k exp

US initial jobless claims week ending 29 July 2016

  • Prior 266k
  • Continued claims 2.138m vs 2.130m exp. Prior 2.139m. Revised to 2.144m
  • 4 week avg 260.25k vs 256.5k prior
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#52

June 2016 US factory orders -1.5% vs -1.8% exp m/m

June 2016 US factory orders and durable goods revisions 4 August 2016

  • Prior -1.0%
  • Ex-trans 0.4% vs -0.2% exp m/m. Prior 0.1%
  • Durable goods revision -3.9% vs -4.0% prior
  • Ex- trans -0.4% vs -0.5% prior
  • Ex-def -3.8% vs -3.9% prior
  • Non-def cap goods orders ex-air 0.4% vs 0.2% prior
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#53

July 2016 US Non-farm payrolls 255k vs 180k exp m/m

Details of the July 2016 US Non-farm payrolls data report 5 August 2016

    • Prior 287k. Revised to 292k
    • Unemployment rate 4.9% vs 4.8% exp. Prior 4.9%
    • Average hourly earnings 0.3% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Prior 0.1%
    • 2.6% vs 2.6% exp y/y. Prior 2.6%
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#54

US trade balance at the worst in nearly a year

June US trade balance report 5 August 2016

This one slipped through the net while we concentrated on NFP

  • Trade balance -44.5bn vs -43.0bn exp. Prior -41.1bn
  • Exports 0.3% vs -0.1% prior
  • Imports 1.9% vs 1.6% prior

Oil and massive imports from China of computers, mobile phones and clothing helped raise the deficit to the highest in 10 months. On the face of it, you could view the numbers negatively on the just the deficit basis but the items that came in from China could relate strongly to consumer demand, which is good news for the economy.

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#55

US NFIB small business optimism July 94.6 vs 94.5 exp


US July NFIB small business optimism report 9 August

  • 94.5 prev

Not a game changer. One for general filing.

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index is a composite of ten seasonally adjusted components. It provides a indication of the health of small businesses in the U.S., which account of roughly 50% of the nation's private workforce.

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#56

US Q2 prelim productivity -0.5% vs +0.4% expected

The first look at second quarter productivity data

  •     Prior was -0.6%
  •     Unit labor costs +2.0% vs +1.8% exp
  •     Prior unit labor costs +4.5% (revised to -0.2%)
Stagnating US productivity has turned into a bit of a preoccupation at the Fed. This weak reading will spark another round of hand-wringing.

Meanwhile, don't be fooled by the rise in unit labor costs, it comes after a massive revision lower in Q1 along with annual benchmark revisions to the report.
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#57

US June wholesale trade sales +1.9% vs +0.5% expected

Wholesale inventories and sales

  • Prior was +0.5% (revised to +0.7%)
  • Inventories +0.3% vs 0.0% exp
  • Prior inventories +0.1% (revised to +0.2%)
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#58

US Initial Jobless Claims Ease Less Than F'cast


Weekly layoffs in the US halted their two-week upturn last week, the Department of Labor said on Thursday, but remained low from a broader perspective, with the respective gauge hovering near a three-month low.

The number of people filing for unemployment benefits booked 266,000 in the seven days ending August 6, compared with the previous week's revised 267,000.

That's marginally more than the market estimate of a slight fall to 264,000 claimants.

Just three weeks ago the figure touched the lowest level since claims touched a post-recession bottom of 248,000 in mid-April, dipping below 250,000 for the first time since the early 1970s. Barring some volatility following the Easter holiday period, the gauge of layoffs has been sitting at these low levels.

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#59

US PPI final demand for July -0.4% vs. +0.1% est.

Ex Food and Energy -0.3.% vs. +0.2% est. PPI YoY -0.3% vs +0.2% est.

The US PPI was a miss with the MoM for July coming in at -0.4% vs +0.1% increase. The prior month came in at 0.5%. 

If you subtract food and energy, the MoM was also weaker at -0.3% vs +0.2% estimate.  Taking out the effects of trade another miss with the number coming in at 0.0% vs +0.2% estimate (last +0.3%).

The YoY PPI final demand came in negative at -0.2% vs +0.2% estimate.  Taking out ex food and energy YoY, the number plunged to +0.7% from 1.3% last month and 1.2% estimated (see chart below).   That measure is going the wrong way again.
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#60

August 2016 US Michigan consumer sentiment 90.4 vs 91.5 exp

Details form the August 2016 US Michigan consumer sentiment report 12 August 2016

  • Prior 90.0
  • Current conditions 106.1 vs 109.0 exp. Prior 109.0
  • Expectations 80.3 vs 78.1 exp. Prior 77.8
  • 1 year inflation expectations 2.5% vs 2.7% prior
  • 5yr 2.6% vs 2.6% prior 

Still up on last month but not as much as hoped. Current conditions waver a tad but expectations gain. Inflation dropped to on the 1yr expectations, even so, they are still well up. There's nothing volatile here to change the current mood in the dollar.