The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate comes in at 2.4%.

Unchanged from the prior estimate.

Weekly US oil inventory data -2342K vs -2000K expected

US energy inventory and production data from the Energy Information Administration

• Prior was -2546K
• Gasoline +911K vs -500K exp
• Gasoline prior -232K
• Distillates -214K vs +1254K exp
• Prior distillates +4058K
• Cushing +189K vs +100K exp
• US production +0.1% w/w to 8.494 mbpd
• Production -11.1% y/y

US initial jobless claims 253k vs 265k exp

US initial jobless claims week ending 15 July 2016

• Prior 254k
• Continued claims 2.128m vs 2.145m exp. Prior 2.149m. revised to 2.153m
• 4 wk avg 257.75k vs 259.00k prior       
  

July 2016 US Markit manufacturing PMI flash 52.9 vs 51.6

Details of the July 2016 US Markit manufacturing PMI flash report 22 July 2016

• Prior 51.3
• Output 53.9 vs 50.4 prior
• Employment 53.4 vs 52.3 prior

July 2016 US Dallas Fed manufacturing index -1.3 vs -10 exp

July 2016 US Dallas Fed manufacturing index report 25 July 2016

• Prior -18.3
• New orders -8.0 vs -14.2 prior
• Prices paid 7.6 vs 12.6 prior
• Prices rec'd -5.7 vs -5.2 prior
• Employment -2.6 v s-11.5 prior
• Wages 10.5 vs 21.6 prior
• Capex 4.8 vs -2.1 prior

Philly Fed July non-manufacturing index at 28.8 vs 10.8 prior

Fed to Leave Rates Unchanged in July

The Fed is facing moderate growth in the U.S. and the timing of its next interest rate hike will be affected by the ongoing presidential electoral campaign. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in July due to not featuring a press conference following the release of the statement had always been an unlikely candidate. The September meeting has 20 percent probability and the last meeting of the year on December 14 has over 50 percent with the added benefit of not interfering with the presidential elections.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement will be released on Wednesday, July 27 at 2:00 pm EDT. There is no change expected to the Fed benchmark rate and since this monetary policy meeting is not followed by a press conference the language in the statement will be the main focus as analysts try to gleam insight from the document.

The Fed is not expected to make the first move as other central banks have more mounting pressure to act. The USD would gain from further easing from Europe, Japan or the United Kingdom. The European Central Bank (ECB) held interest rates and its quantitive easing (QE) on hold as expected on Thursday, July 21. The EUR is weaker against major pairs after there was not clear signal on what the next step for the central bank is despite the anticipated negative effect of the Brexit vote on European growth by forecasters.

The Fed has been forced to relive 2015 where more was expected from the market but in the end only one rate hike materialized. The U.S. economy continues to be the one that is growing at a slow but steady pace in comparison to other major economies battling deflation.

The USD will be directly impacted by the language used in the FOMC statement. Investors will be going through the documents trying to get insights on the Fed’s view on the jobs market, inflation, growth and global events. Another point to consider is the vote split. Kansas City Fed President Esther George dissented in March and April but rejoined the hold camp in June. Given the positive signs form the U.S. economy and the limited impact of the Brexit shock she might once again push for a rate hike in July breaking rank with the rest of Fed FOMC voting members.

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US June durable goods orders -4.0% vs -1.4% expected

Durable goods orders for June

• Prior was -2.3% (revised to -2.8%)
• Ex transportation -0.5% vs +0.3% expected
• Prior ex transportation -0.3% (revised to -0.4%)
• Non-defense capital goods orders ex-air +0.2% vs +0.2% exp
• Prior non-defense capital goods orders ex-air -0.4% (revised to -0.5%)
• Capital goods shipments nondefense ex air -0.4% vs +0.4% exp

The important number is non-defense capital goods orders ex-air and it was bang-on expectations so this isn't as bad as the first headline looks. However, the shipments number is soft and that will be a drag on Q2 growth.

June 2016 US advance goods trade balance -63.3bn vs -61.0bn exp

June 2016 US advance goods trade balance report 28 July 2016

• Prior -60.6bn. Revised to -61.1bn

Alongside this report the commerce department is now releasing and advance wholesale and retail inventory report.

US initial jobless claims 266k vs 260k exp

• Prior 253k. revised to 252k
• Continued claims 2.139m vs 2.130m exp. Prior 2.128m. Revised to 2.132m
• 4 week avg 256.5k vs 257.75k prior. Revised to 257.50k