US new home sales for September 593K vs 600k estimate

September New Home sales +3.1%, but prior month revised  lower to 575K from 609K

• The supply of new homes is is at low 4.8 months (vs 4.9 months - low supply).
• Median new home prices  313,500, up 1.9%.YoY.  The YoY level change is $5,900.
• The mean sale price came in at $377,700 up 2.7% YoY The YoY level change is $9,900

US initial jobless claims 258K vs. 255K estimate

Jobless claims in the US for the week of October 22nd

The US initial jobless claims came in at 258K vs. 255K estimate. The 4- week MA moved higher to 253K vs 251.75K. The prior month was revised slightly higher to 261K from 260K last week.

Sept US durable goods orders -0.1% vs 0.0% expected

Preliminary durable goods orders data for September

• Prior was +0.1% m/m (revised to +0.3%)
• Durable goods orders nondefense ex-air -1.2% vs -0.1% exp
• Prior durable goods orders nondefense ex-air +0.9% (revised to +1.2%)
• Durable goods orders ex-transportation +0.2% vs +0.2% exp
• Capital goods shipments nondefense ex air +0.3% vs +0.3%
• Prior capital goods shipments nondefense ex air -0.1% (revised to 0.0%)

The durable goods numbers will be revised in the factory orders report in November.

US Sept pending home sales +1.5% vs +1.0% expected

US Q3 advance GDP +2.9% q/q annualized vs +2.6% expected

Highlights of the first look at US third quarter GDP. Oct 28, 2016

• Q2 was at 1.4%
• Personal consumption 2.1% vs 2.6% exp. Prior 4.3%
• PCE 1.5% vs 1.4% exp.
• Core PCE 1.7% vs 1.6% exp
• GDP sales 2.4% vs 3.2% exp. Prior 1.3%
• Employment costs 0.6% vs 0.6% exp. Prior 0.6%
• Wages 0.5% vs 0.6% prior
• Benefits 075% vs 0.5% prior
• GDP deflator 2.2% vs 1.8% exp. Prior 0.4%. Revised to 0.5%
• Exports 10.0% vs +1.4% prior
• Imports +2.3% vs +0.2% prior
• Inventories +$12B

September 2016 US Core PCE 1.7% vs 1.7% prior y/y

Details of the September 2016 US PCE data report 31 October 2016

• 0.1% vs 0.1% exp m/m. Prior 0.2%
• PCE 1.2% vs 1.0% prior y/y
• 0.2% vs 0.1% prior m/m. Revised to 0.2%

Core PCE stays steady at 1.7% and that will be comforting to the Fed.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow first estimate for Q4 in at 2.7%

The numbers are rolling off for Q4

The final Q3 estimate of 2.1% came in 0.8 PP below the actual Q3 GDP number last week.

US Sept construction spending -0.4% m/m vs +0.5% expected

September construction spending data

• Prior was -0.7% m/m (revised to -0.5%)
• Private spending -0.2%
• Public spending -0.9%

Downward revision to Q3 GDP incoming.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow cuts Q4 GDP estimate to 2.3% from 2.7%

US MBA mortgage application -1.2% vs -4.1% prior

US MBA mortgage market data week ending 28 October 2016

• Mortgage market index 486.2 vs 492.0
• Purchase index 207.0 vs 207.8
• Refi index 2088.0 vs 2122.5
• 30yr mortgage rate 3.75% vs 3.71% prior