notable comment from Yellen in the press conference yesterday was that
she expected core inflation to rise to 2% in 2-3 years. That's measuring
with the PCE index, which has diverged from CPI. Either way, that's a
long timeline for hitting the Fed target.
US Market Insight: Summer Storm Brewing Over Atlantic
Economic data are likely to be relegated to a supporting role as
policymakers and investors continue to discuss the implications Brexit,
at least for a while.
As a result, markets are likely to focus on central
bankers and their responses to UK voters' decision to leave the
On Wednesday, the Forum on Central Banking, hosted
by the European Central Bank (ECB) in Linho Sintra, Portugal will line
up all the big name bankers. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Janet Yellen
and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney are scheduled to make
appearances, alongside their host, ECB President Mario Draghi.
The key question there is, what can central banks
can do to contain downside risks to the global economy at a time when
much of their arsenal has already been used up?
Any potential disturbance from Brexit will take
time to show up in the economic data. Measures of sentiment are likely
to be the first to show how businesses and consumers are reacting to the
new sources of uncertainty.
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 2.7 percent
on June 29, up from 2.6 percent on June 24. The forecast for
second-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 4.1 percent
to 4.3 percent after this morning's personal income and outlays release
from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. This was partly offset by a
decline in the forecast of the second-quarter change in net exports in
2009 dollars from $14 billion to $11 billion after Monday's advance
report on international trade in goods from the U.S. Census Bureau.
US initial jobless claims week ending 24 June 2016
Prior 259k. Revised to 258k
Continued claims 2.120m vs 2.150m exp. Prior 2.142m. Revised to 2.140m
4 week average 266.75k vs 267.00k prior. Revised to 266.75k
near as straight down the line as you can get it. The 4 week average
looks like it's starting to flatten and that could mean that were
nearing a bottom. That could reflect further into other jobs data like
U.S. markets will be shuttered July 4 in observance of Independence
Day, while the rest of the world treats the U.S. exit from the Brits
just like any other Monday.
The Fourth of July is typically
associated with fireworks to commemorate the break from the U.K., but
fireworks came early for global markets last Friday after a so-called
Brexit, or British exit from the EU, emerged the winning side in the EU
referendum, roiling global markets.
far, investors are calmer, at least for the moment. But many traders
could use a longer respite. Here’s the run down of what’s closed in the