Join date: 2012.10.01
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April US business inventories +0.1% vs +0.2% expected

April US business inventory data

  • The March reading was +0.4% (revised to +0.3%)
  • Business sales +0.9% vs +0.2% prior (largest since Feb 2014)
  • Inventory-to-sales ratio 1.40 months vs 1.41 months prior
  • Inventories ex-autos -0.2% (largest drop in nearly a year)

The small rise in inventories will be a small hit to GDP estimates but the jump in sales will boost growth and inventories in May, June and beyond.

Inventories have been a drag on growth for the past three quarters but still remain relatively high.

Join date: 2012.10.01
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May 2016 US industrial production -0.4% vs -0.2% exp

May 2016 US industrial production and manufacturing output data report 15 June 2016

  • Prior 0.7%. Revised to 0.6%
  • Capacity utilisation 74.9% vs 75.2 exp. Prior 75.4% prior. Revised to 75.3%
  • Manufacturing output -0.4% vs 0.0% exp. Prior 0.3%. Revised to 0.2%

Far from inspiring numbers. The Cap U continues to drop, it was 76.4% this time last year. Only the mining industry made a gain this month. It all makes last month's gains a one off.

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Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged - highlights of June 15, 2016 statement

Highlights of the FOMC interest rate decision June 15, 2016

  • Rates left unchanged in 0.25% to 0.50% range   
  • Labor market slowed since April meeting despite economic pickup
  • Expects labor market indicators 'will strengthen'   
  • Repeats that economy to warrant only gradual hikes
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US May CPI +0.2% m/m vs +0.3% exp

US CPI data highlights:

  • Prior was +0.4% m/m
  • CPI ex food and energy +0.2% vs +0.2% m/m exp
  • CPI +1.0% y/y vs +1.1% exp
  • CPI ex food and energy +2.2% y/y vs +2.2% exp
  • Prior ex food and energy +2.1% y/y

One notable comment from Yellen in the press conference yesterday was that she expected core inflation to rise to 2% in 2-3 years. That's measuring with the PCE index, which has diverged from CPI. Either way, that's a long timeline for hitting the Fed target.


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May 2016 US housing starts 1.164m vs 1.150m exp

Details of the May 2016 US housing starts and building permits data report 17 June 2016

  • Prior 1.172m. Revised to 1.167m
  • Building permits 1.138m vs 1.150m exp. Prior 1.130m

Starts don't drop as much as expected and permits miss but gain from last month.  Single family homes form the biggest part of housing and that rose 0.3%.

In the real world this report isn't anything bad but in this world of Fed data watching they'd want to see it keep gaining. They don't have the luxury to see falling numbers in any sector.


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US initial jobless claims 259K vs 270K expected

Weekly initial jobless claims

  • Prior 277K (unrevised)
  • Continuing claims +2142K vs 2150K exp
  • Prior continuing claims 2162K
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Markit US manufacturing June prelim 51.4 vs 50.9 expected

The June PMI from Markit

  • Prior was 50.7 (a series low)
  • Estimates ranged from 49.9 from 52.0
  • Output 50.9 vs 49.4 prior
  • Employment 51.0 vs 51.3 prior
  • The full report
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May 2016 US durable goods orders -2.2% vs -0.5% exp m/m

US durable goods for May 2016

  • Prior 3.4%. Revised to 3.3%
  • Ex-transport -0.3% vs 0.1% exp. Prior 0.5%
  • Ex-defense -0.9% vs 3.8%, Prior. Revised to 3.7%
  • Cap goods orders non-def ex-air -0.7% vs 0.4% exp. Prior -0.6%, Revised to -0.4%
  • Cap goods shipments non-def ex-air -0.5% vs 0.3% exp. Prior 0.4%. Revised to 0.6%

Shock horror, another durable goods report all over the place. A lot of the time this report is one step forward, two steps back.

Join date: 2012.10.01
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US Market Insight: Summer Storm Brewing Over Atlantic

Economic data are likely to be relegated to a supporting role as policymakers and investors continue to discuss the implications Brexit, at least for a while.

As a result, markets are likely to focus on central bankers and their responses to UK voters' decision to leave the European Union.

On Wednesday, the Forum on Central Banking, hosted by the European Central Bank (ECB) in Linho Sintra, Portugal will line up all the big name bankers. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Janet Yellen and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney are scheduled to make appearances, alongside their host, ECB President Mario Draghi.

The key question there is, what can central banks can do to contain downside risks to the global economy at a time when much of their arsenal has already been used up?

Any potential disturbance from Brexit will take time to show up in the economic data. Measures of sentiment are likely to be the first to show how businesses and consumers are reacting to the new sources of uncertainty.

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Q1 2016 US GDP final 1.1% vs 1.0% exp q/q ann

Details of the final Q1 2016 US GDP data report 28 June 2016

  • Q4 2015 1.4%
  • Personal consumption 1.5% vs 2.0% exp. Prior 1.9%. Q4 2015 2.4%
  • Core PCE 2.0% vs 2.1% exp. Prior 2.1%
  • PCE 0.2% vs 0.3% exp. Prior 0.3%
  • GDP price index 0.4% vs 0.6% exp. Prior 0.6%
  • GDP sales 1.3% vs 1.2% exp. Prior 1.0%
  • Q1 corporate profits revised to 2.2% vs 0.6% exp. Prior 0.6%
  • theNews
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    US May core PCE 1.6% y/y vs 1.6% expected

    The inflation data in the personal income and spending report

    • Prior core PCE 1.6% y/y
    • Core PCE +0.2% vs +0.2% m/m exp
    • PCE deflator +0.9% y/y vs +1.0% exp
    • PCE deflator +0.2% m/m vs +0.2% exp
    • No revisions to prior inflation data
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    Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast bumped to 2.7% from 2.6%

    Forecast hiked after PCE report

    From the Atlanta Fed:

    The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 2.7 percent on June 29, up from 2.6 percent on June 24. The forecast for second-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 4.1 percent to 4.3 percent after this morning's personal income and outlays release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. This was partly offset by a decline in the forecast of the second-quarter change in net exports in 2009 dollars from $14 billion to $11 billion after Monday's advance report on international trade in goods from the U.S. Census Bureau.

    The next update is Friday.
    Join date: 2012.10.01
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    US initial jobless claims 268k vs 267k exp

    US initial jobless claims week ending 24 June 2016

    • Prior 259k. Revised to 258k
    • Continued claims 2.120m vs 2.150m exp. Prior 2.142m. Revised to 2.140m
    • 4 week average 266.75k vs 267.00k prior. Revised to 266.75k

    As near as straight down the line as you can get it. The 4 week average looks like it's starting to flatten and that could mean that were nearing a bottom. That could reflect further into other jobs data like the NFP's.

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    Which markets are closed for July 4th?

    U.S. markets will be shuttered July 4 in observance of Independence Day, while the rest of the world treats the U.S. exit from the Brits just like any other Monday.

    The Fourth of July is typically associated with fireworks to commemorate the break from the U.K., but fireworks came early for global markets last Friday after a so-called Brexit, or British exit from the EU, emerged the winning side in the EU referendum, roiling global markets.

    So far, investors are calmer, at least for the moment. But many traders could use a longer respite. Here’s the run down of what’s closed in the coming days:

    • The Securities Industries and Financial Markets Associations has recommended that the bond markets close early Friday at 2 p.m. and traders get the day off Monday.
    • New York Stock Exchange trading will observe regular trading Friday but will be closed Monday.
    • Globex electronic trading, where oil and metals are traded, will observe normal hours on July 1, while the electronic trading platform will see an early 1 p.m. Eastern close Monday.
    • Chicago and New York Mercantile floor trading will be opened for business Friday, and Chicago-traded commodities will be closed Monday.
    • European and Asian markets will be open on Friday and Monday
    • Currency markets will be open for business
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    US auto sales for June come in weaker than expectations

    As per Autodata

    The June US light vehicle sales came in at 16.66 million units. This was lower than the estimate of 17.2 million.  

    Domestic truck sales came in at 8.24 million versus an estimate of 8.33 million.  A disappointing month for US auto makers.