AceTraderFx: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views and Daily Recommendations on Major

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#1

AceTraderFx May 30: Market Review on USD/JPY
30 May 2016 1:08GMT 

USD/JPY - .... Dollar climbed to a 1-month high of 110.86 ahead of Tokyo open following weekend news of a delay in a sales tax hike. Yesterday it was reported that Japanese PM Shinzo Abe plans to delay an increase in sales tax by two and a half years as the economy sputters and Abe prepares for a national election. 

The prime minister, who has promised to announce steps on Tuesday to spur economic growth and promote structural reform, is also expected to order an extra budget to fund stimulus measures, just two months into the fiscal year and on the heels of a supplementary budget to pay for recovery from recent earthquakes in southern Japan.

After chairing a summit of G7 leaders on Friday, Abe said Japan would mobilise "all policy tools" - including the possibility of delaying the tax hike - to avoid what he called an economic crisis on the scale of the global financial crisis that followed the 2008 Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. 
Abe has long said he would proceed with a plan to raise the tax rate to 10 percent from 8 percent next April unless Japan faced a crisis on the magnitude of the Lehman shock. 
He said the G7 "shares a strong sense of crisis" about the global outlook, with the most worrisome risk being a global contraction led by a slowdown in emerging economies like China. 

But other G7 leaders, however, appeared to differ with Abe on the risk of a global crisis, fuelling comment that Abe was using the G7 to justify delaying the painful tax hike. 


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AceTraderFx May 30: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views 
30 May 2016
 03:12GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1101.. Euro languishes near a 2-1/2 month trough of 1.1098 in Asia on Monday as intra-day rally in DLR/YEN has led to renewed broad-based usd's strength. 
Having said that, Asian traders are not too eager to knock the pair lower as price has already fall fairly sharply in New York session on Friday, so one can expect a minor recovery to occur ahead of European open ahead of release of a slew of economic data from euro zone countries. 

Offers are tipped at 1.1220/30 and more above with stops above 1.1150, some bias are noted at 1.1090-00 and more below (profit taking). 
As both U.K. & U.S. markets are closed for holiday today, trading activity is expected to die down near European midday.

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#3

 AceTraderFx May 30 : Daily Recommendations on Major GBP/USD

 

    DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major GBP/USD 

Update Time: 30 May 2016 08:12GMT

GBP/USD - 1.4610 
Cable's erratic fall from last Thursday's 3-week high to 1.4604 Friday due to dlr's broad-based gain after Fed Yellen's hawkish comments suggests 'choppy' trading below May's 4-mth peak at 1.4770 would continue with downside bias, below 1.4550, 1.4488 (61.8% r). 

Incline to turn short on recovery for 1.4560 1st and only above 1.4689 may risk gain to 1.4720/30. 

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AceTraderFx May 31: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY) 

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views 
31 May 2016
 01:23GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Although the greenback rose to session high at 111.45 in early European morning, price retreated to 111.03 and continued to trade in a narrow range in holiday-thinned conditions as UK and US markets were closed. 
Dlr briefly dropped to 110.80 at Tokyo open after Japan reported better-than-expected industrial production data before rebounding in Tokyo morning. 

Factory output rose 0.3 percent in April from the previous month, against a median market forecast for a 1.5 percent drop, data by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed on Tuesday. It followed a 3.8 percent rise in March. 

Pay attention to the release of U.S. consumer confidence data at 14:00GMT. Street forecast is for a rise to 96.0 fm prev. reading of 94.2. 

Bids are now seen at 110.90/00 and more below at 110.70/80 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 111.60/70, suggesting buying on dips for a resumption of recent uptrend is favored.

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AceTraderFx May 31 : Daily Recommendations on Major EUR/USD 

    DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major EUR/USD


Update Time: 31 May 2016 04:03GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1148
Despite the single currency's fall to a fresh 2-month trough at 1.1098 yesterday, subsequent strong rebound suggests recent downtrend from May's peak at 1.1617 has formed a minor low there and consolidation with upside bias would be seen for gain towards 1.1169, then 1.1201/05.
However, as broad-outlook remains consolidative, reckon resistance at 1.1217 would hold and yield retreat later.

On the downside, only below 1.1098 would revive bearishness for weakness towards 1.1058/60, then 1.1020 later this week but near term loss of momentum would keep price above 1.1000.

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#6

AceTraderFx May 31 : Daily Recommendations on Major 

 

     DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major USD/JPY

Update Time: 31 May 2016 09:07 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.02
Although price has eased after yesterday's rally to a fresh 1-month peak at 111.45 on dollar's broad-based strength following last week's comments from Fed's Yellen and further choppy trading would be seen, as said move signals recent erratic uptrend has resumed, consolidation with upside bias remains for a re-test of aforesaid resistance, break would yield further gain towards 111.80/90 before prospect of retreat later this week.

On the downside, only below 110.59 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 110.00.

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AceTraderFx Jun 1: Delay on the scheduled sales tax by another 30 months is expected to be announced by Japan PM

    Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views 
01 Jun 2016
  01:06GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is expected later today to announce delaying the scheduled sales tax hike by two-and-a-half years, but will likely bow to pressure from his coalition partner not to call a snap general election. 
The tax delay, which had been widely expected, will be welcomed by voters, who will cast ballots in an upper house election in July. But it is fanning doubts about Abe's plans to curb Japan's huge public debt and fund ballooning social welfare costs of a fast-ageing population. 

It would be the second time that Abe has delayed the increase in the sales tax to 10 percent from 8 percent, after a rise from 5 percent in April 2014 which tipped the economy back into recession. 
Abe took office in December 2012 pledging to beat deflation and reboot the moribund economy with his "Abenomics" revival recipe, but has made little headway amid stubbornly weak domestic and export demand. 

Abe's term as ruling Liberal Democratic Party president and premier, ends in September 2018 and unless the LDP changes its rules, has repeatedly said he would implement the tax rise as planned unless the economy faced a shock from a financial crisis or natural disaster. 
But he laid the groundwork for a delay at last week's Group of Seven summit, insisting his G7 partners shared a "strong sense of crisis" about the global economic outlook and drawing parallels to the 2008 world financial crisis that followed the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. 

Government officials have said Abe has not abandoned a pledge to bring the country's primary budget balance into the black by the fiscal year from April 2020 to rein in public debt which is already more than double annual economic output. 
But that target had already looked elusive, even with the government's rosy forecast of real economic growth of 2 percent on average in coming years. 
Abe will also need to explain to voters how he plans to make up for the funding gap from the tax hike delay to October 2019, and keep pledges to beef up support for the elderly. 

Speculation had simmered that Abe would call an election for parliament's powerful lower house as he did in 2014 after announcing the first tax hike delay, aiming to lock in his ruling bloc's two thirds "super majority" in the lower house and win a similar grip on the upper chamber, while there is no lower house poll need be held until 2018. 

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#8
AceTraderFx Jun 1: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)

   Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
01 Jun 2016  03:08GMT

EUR/USD - ...... Despite yesterday's initial retreat to 1.1122 in early European morning, the single currency rallied to 1.1173 in New York morning on active cross-buying in eur/gbp. 
However, price swiftly pared its gains n fell sharply to 1.1125 in New York. Euro continued to remain under pressure and edged lower to 1.1117 in Asian morning today. 

There is a slew of manufacturing PMIs to be released from the eurozone today. 
Readings of Germany and EZ manufacturing sectory are expected to remain unchanged, hence a surprise to the downside would give traders an added incentive to sell the euro. 

Offers are now seen at 1.1160/70 and more above at 1.1180/90 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.1100/10, suggesting further choppy trading would be seen.

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AceTraderFx Jun 1: Daily Recommendations on Major USD/JPY

   DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major USD/JPY
Update Time: 01 Jun 2016 09:06 GMT

USD/JPY - 109.95
Although price has retreated after yesterday's rally to a fresh 1-month peak at 111.45 on dollar's broad-based strength following last week's comments from Fed's Yellen and further choppy trading would be seen, as said move signals recent erratic uptrend has resumed, consolidation with upside bias remains for a re-test of aforesaid resistance, break would yield further gain towards 111.80/90 before prospect of retreat later this week. 

On the downside, only below 109.42 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 109.11.

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#10

AceTraderFx Jun 2: Daily Recommendations on Major EUR/USD


   DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major EUR/USD

Update Time: 02 Jun 2016 01:17 GMT


EUR/USD - 1.1188
Despite the single currency's fall to a fresh 2-month trough at 1.1098 on Monday, subsequent strong rebound suggests recent downtrend from May's peak at 1.1617 has formed a minor low there and consolidation with upside bias would be seen for gain towards 1.1201/05.
However, as broad-outlook remains consolidative, reckon resistance at 1.1217 would hold and yield retreat later.

On the downside, only below 1.1098 would revive bearishness for weakness towards 1.1058/60, then 1.1020 later this week but near term loss of momentum would keep price above 1.1000.

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#11
AceTraderFx Jun 2: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY) 

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views 
02 Jun 2016 
03:03GMT

USD/JPY - ....... The greenback tumbled to 109.65 ahead of European open, then fell lower to session low at 109.05 in New York morning following Japan's decision to delay its sales tax hike. 
Despite a brief short-covering rebound to 109.69, renewed selling pressured the pair lower and dlr fell briefly to 108.93 in Tokyo morning and continues to remain under pressure. 

Mkt focus today is on the release of U.S. ADP jobs report at 12:15GMT. Street forecast is for an increase to 178K from previous reading of 156K. An upbeat figure would further bolster the case for a rate hike from the Fed. 

Offers are now seen at 109.30/40 and more above at 109.50/60 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 108.70/80, suggesting choppy trading with mild downside bias would be seen.

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#12

AceTraderFx Jun 2: Daily Recommendations on Major USD/JPY

 

    DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major USD/JPY

Update Time:  02 Jun 2016 09:31 GMT


USD/JPY - 108.89
The greenback's sharp retreat in Asia today and subsequent breach of yesterday's low at 109.05 signals corrective decline from Monday's fresh 1-month peak at remains in progress and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards 108.50/60.
However, loss of momentum would prevent steep fall below there and risk would increase for a much-needed correction later. 

On the upside, only above 109.69 would indicate a temporary low has been made and yield stronger retracement towards 110.14 (50% r).

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AceTraderFx Jun 3: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY) 

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views 
03 Jun 2016 
01:28

USD/JPY - ...... The greenback met renewed selling at 109.32 yesterday at European open and tumbled to session low at 108.53 in New York morning, weighed down by the release of slightly downbeat U.S. ADP jobs report. 
However, price pared its losses n staged a short-covering rebound to 108.93 in New York afternoon, then 109.14 in Tokyo morning. 

Mkt focus is now on the release of U.S. jobs report at 12:30GMT. Street forecast for non-farm is for a slight increase to 162K from previous reading of 160K and unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4.9% from 5.0%. 
Traders will be using this data to base their judgement on when the Fed would look to hike its rates next. 

Offers are now raised to 109.40/50 and more above at 109.60/70 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 108.50/60, suggesting further choppy trading would be seen. 

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#14

AceTraderFx Jun 3: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)    

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

03 Jun 2016  04:08GMT


  GBP/USD - ...... Although the British pound traded with a firm bias in Asia yesterday and gained to 1.4468 in European morning, then 1.4473 at New York open, price pared its gains and retreated to 1.4413 in New York morning due dlr's strength post release of upbeat U.S. ADP data together with 'Brexit' concerns. 
Renewed selling at 1.4442 in New York afternoon pressured the pair lower and cable dropped to 1.4400 in Asian morning. 
 
UK will also release its services PMI at 08:30GMT. Street forecast is 52.5 vs previous reading from 52.3. 
 
Offers are now seen at 1.4430/40 and more above at 1.4450/60 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.4350/60, suggesting selling on intra-day recovery is the way to go.  

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AceTraderFx Jun 6: Latest poll on Brexit is 4% ahead by YouGov poll 

 

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views   GBP/USD 
06 Jun 2016   00:07GMT

   GBP/USD - ....... YouGov Brexit poll for ITV puts 'remain' at 41 pct, 'leave' at 45 pct. 
Reuters then reported support for Britain to leave the European Union stood 4 points ahead of support for remaining in the 28-member bloc, according to a YouGov poll for ITV, Bloomberg reported on Monday. 
 
The poll was based on a Wednesday-Friday survey of 3,405 people. 
Britons vote on June 23 on whether to remain in the EU. 
 
The campaign to get Britain out of the European Union has a 2-point lead over the "Remain" campaign, polling firm TNS  citing a poll conducted in the third week of May. 
Forty-three percent of respondents wanted Britain out of the EU, while 41 percent wanted it to stay, according to the online poll of 1,213 Britons. The difference was within the poll's margin of error. Sixteen percent of respondents were undecided. 
 
The TNS poll was carried out between May 19-23, a month before the EU referendum date. 
 
Britons will vote in just over 2 weeks time on June 23 on whether to remain in the 28-member bloc, with important implications for its trade, economic and political status.  
The campaign to stop Britain voting to leave the EU has seen its lead shrink recently, with polls in the past week showing gains for "Leave". 

Sterling fell sharply last Tuesday when both an online and a telephone poll for ICM showed a 3-percentage-point lead for the "Leave" campaign.  

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