Daily Wave Analysis by Admiral Markets

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AdmiralMarkets
Join date: 2015.07.08
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#1

EURUSD, GBPUSD construct giant triangle patterns

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is moving sideways in between strong layers of support (green) and daily resistance (red). The current wave count favors one more bullish push to complete wave C (blue) of larger wave Y corrections.

1 hour

The EUR/USD bearish break could indicate that wave C (blue) is completed and a bullish break could indicate that wave C (blue) is still developing.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD break of the resistance could see the continuation of waves Y (pink, blue). A break below support levels (green) could indicate the continuation of the downtrend which would invalidate wave X (pink).

1 hour

The GBP/USD continued to build a triangle (green/orange) chart pattern. If price makes a bullish break above resistance (orange) then the Fibonacci levels of C (green) could turn out to be targets.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY continued with its strong bearish momentum towards lower Fibonacci targets.

1 hour

The USD/JPY completed a wave 4 (orange) at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and seems to be building another bearish leg within wave 5 (orange).

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AdmiralMarkets
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#2

EURJPY broke below sideways chop range

EURJPY broke below sideways chop last night when it was announced that OIL production cut back negotiations failed. There was a gap on JPY pairs and today early correction has closed most of gaps. JPY and OIL correlation links back to Risk-off sentiment, as Oil price drops, some sectors of Equities drop. So If Oil is dropping, inflation expectations would drop, which is not necessarily a good thing for Equities. In that environment risk-off prevails, and JPY gets stronger.

Technically EURJPY broke below sideways chop range (red rectangle) and if risk off sentiment prevails EURJPY could reject from POC (50.0, Doji, previous breakout point L3 ) within 122.55-70 else any breakout of 122.90 towards 123.05 zone might put the pair back into the sideways chop range. If we see a rejection 122.14 and 121.72 are targets for another bearish support retest.

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#3

EURUSD, GBPUSD build trend channels in bullish waves

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD has approached a resistance trend line (orange) which is a bounce or break spot. A bearish bounce would confirm the wave X (green) correction; whereas a bullish breakout would see the larger WXY (purple) develop towards resistance (red).

1 hour

The EUR/USD continues to build a bullish channel (purple lines) but seems to have completed an bullish ABC zigzag (orange). A break below that channel could start a bearish correction towards the Fibonacci levels of wave X (purple) mentioned on the 4 hour chart.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD broke above another resistance trend line (dotted brown) but price still has one more horizontal resistance level to deal with (red) before the uptrend has managed to break all of the long-term resistance.

1 hour

The GBP/USD is building a bullish ABC zigzag (blue) with Fibonacci targets above. One more 5th wave seems likely as long as price remains in the bullish trend channel indicated by purple and light green lines.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is challenging the bottom of wave 1 (red line), which is the invalidation level of the current wave structure. A break below the support trend line (light green) makes it more likely that the wave Y (pink has been completed).

1 hour

The USD/JPY made a bullish break above the resistance line (dotted orange) and could have completed the 5th waves via a truncation (failure to break the previous high). This wave count would make sense once price breaks below the support trend line (green).

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#4

USDJPY bearish momentum aligned with wave outlook and Fibonacci

EUR/USD 4 hour

The EUR/USD is in bullish trend channel (purple) with resistance trend lines (orange) closeby. A bearish bounce would confirm the wave X (green) correction; whereas a bullish breakout would see the larger WXY (purple) develop towards resistance (red).

1 hour

The EUR/USD needs to break below the channel before a bearish correction becomes a more likely scenario. For the moment a bearish ABC (orange) could be taking place but the wave count is vulnerable to change if price stays in the channel and/or breaks above the 100% level.

GBP/USD 4 hour

The GBP/USD seems to have completed the bullish ABC zigzag at horizontal resistance (red). Price is now testing the inner support trend line (green) and a bearish break could indicate a change to a downtrend. A break above resistance invalidates the current wave structure and indicates the potential for an uptrend.

1 hour

The GBP/USD seems to have completed 5 bullish waves within wave C (blue). Price is now respecting a layer of support (green) and has resistance above it. Price will need to break below support before a bearish momentum could start.

USD/JPY 4 hour

The USD/JPY is moving down lower with lots of bearish momentum. Price was not able to break above resistance, which was in accordance with the wave analysis of the previous 2 weeks.

1 hour

The USD/JPY made a bearish break below the support trend lines (dotted green) and seems to be starting a new bearish impulse.

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#5

EUR/USD, GBP/USD display first signs of bearish momentum

EUR/USD

4 hour

eu4

The EUR/USD showed a bearish turn at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level after which is broke the steep support trend line (dotted green). This could indicate the completion of wave 2 (brown) at the 61.8% Fib but a push higher could see price challenge the 78.6% Fib level of wave 2 vs 1. A break above 100% invalidates the wave count.

1 hour

eu1

The EUR/USD is building bearish momentum which seems to be part of a wave 3. Any pullback should not go above the 78.6% Fibonacci level of wave 4 (blue) otherwise price invalidates the current wave count by moving above the bottom of wave 1 (blue).

GBP/USD

4 hour

gu4

The GBP/USD will be impacted the Bank of England (BOE) rate decision on Thursday 4 August. The Cable is now building a contracting triangle (red/green). The breakout will decide whether the Cable is bullish or bearish. Price is either in a bearish 123 (pink) or in a bigger ABC retracement (purple).

1 hour

gu1

The GBP/USD retraced back for a wave B (purple) and the pushed further for a new higher high, which could complete wave C (purple). At the moment the bearish momentum could lead to the start of a new wave 1-2 (blue) but the break of the triangle (purple lines) will indicate whether price can test the next resistance (orange) or support (green) lines.

USD/JPY

4 hour

uj4

The USD/JPY is respecting the 78.6% Fibonacci level. A bullish bounce could indicate the completion of wave X (brown) whereas a bearish break could price fall further to test the 100% Fibonacci level.

1 hour

uj1

The USD/JPY is building a channel (blue line). A break above or below the support or resistance of the channel could indicate the start of a bearish or bullish breakout.

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#6

GBP/USD plunges in bearish wave-3 after rate cut to record low

EUR/USD

4 hour

eu4 

The EUR/USD has replaced the bullish impulse with the start of a bearish momentum. Price however needs to break below both support trend lines (green) before a continuation is possible.

1 hour

 

The EUR/USD seems to be building an ABC zigzag (green) within wave 4 (blue). Typically waves 4 are shallow retracements such as the 38.2% Fibonacci level. A break above the 61.8% and bottom of wave 1 (blue) invalidates the current wave count. A break below the support could see the continuation of the downtrend.

GBP/USD

4 hour

 


The GBP/USD was impacted by the Bank of England’s (BOE) decision to cut the interest rate from 0.5% to a  record low of 0.25%. The Cable broke below the support level (dotted green) of the contracting triangle, which could trigger the start of more bearishness especially if price break below horizontal support and if it stays below the resistance (red).

1 hour

 


The GBP/USD made a strong bearish momentum yesterday which has been labelled as a wave 3 (blue). The wave 3 (blue) could still be ongoing but if  a retracement does occur, then the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (blue) should act as resistance.

USD/JPY

4 hour

 



The USD/JPY is respecting the 78.6% Fibonacci level. A bullish bounce could indicate the completion of wave X (brown) whereas a bearish break could price fall further to test the 100% Fibonacci level.

1 hour

 


The USD/JPY is building a channel (blue line). A break above or below the support or resistance of the channel could indicate the start of a bearish or bullish breakout.

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#7

EUR/USD, GBP/USD break support lines and build wave-4 corrections 

EUR/USD

4 hour


The EUR/USD seems to have completed a wave 2 (brown) correction but more bearish momentum is needed before this can be confirmed.

1 hour



The EUR/USD broke the support trend line (dotted green), which completed wave 5 (green) of wave 3 (blue). The current pullback is expected to turn at shallow Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (blue).

GBP/USD

4 hour


The GBP/USD keeps pushing lower with lower lows and lower highs. The bearish breakout is part of a wave 3 (pink) of wave 5 (blue) unless price breaks above the resistance line (red).

1 hour


The GBP/USD completed a wave 4 (grey) pullback as expected and then broke support levels (dotted green) to complete wave 5 (grey) of wave 3 (blue). The 4 (blue) retracement is expected to stop at shallow Fibonacci levels. A break above the 61.8% makes the current wave count unlikely.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is respecting the 78.6% Fibonacci level by building a bullish channel, which could indicate the completion of wave X (brown). A bullish break above the resistance trend lines (orange/red) would confirm a larger uptrend, whereas a bearish break could price fall further to test the 100% Fibonacci level.

1 hour


The USD/JPY has not been able to break above or below the channel (blue). The breakout direction will indicate the short-term trend.

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#8

US Dollar cautiously developing bullish first wave

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is building a downtrend with lower lows and lower highs, which would be invalidated if price manages to break above the resistance trend line (red). A break below the support levels (greens) should see a continuation of the bearish momentum.

1 hour



The EUR/USD is building an ABC (green) correction within wave 4 (blue). A break below the support level (green) could spark the start of the 5th wave (blue) whereas a break above the 50% Fibonacci level makes the development of a wave 4 (blue) less likely.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD would need to reach at least the 100% Fibonacci level before a wave 3 (pink) is confirmed but for the moment a bearish breakout is pushing with lower with lower lows and lower highs.

1 hour

The GBP/USD completed a wave 4 (blue) pullback as expected and then broke support levels (dotted green) to continue with the bearish momentum of wave 5 (blue). Price could now be heading towards the Fibonacci targets of wave 5 (blue).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY broke above the smaller resistance (dotted pink), which is confirming the larger bullish bounce at the support trend line (green). Price is slowing developing a trend reversal but a break above resistance (orange/red) is needed before larger bullish moves could be expected.

1 hour

The USD/JPY seems to be building a bull flag chart pattern (green/red lines) within an impulsive wave 3 (pink or green).

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#9

EUR/USD, GBP/USD switch momentum direction after bullish breakout

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD managed to break above the resistance trend line (dotted red), which has indicated has lead to a change in wave structure where wave 1 (purple) has been completed at the recent bottom. Wave 2 (purple) is invalidated if price manages to break above the 100% Fibonacci level.

1 hour



The EUR/USD broke the resistance with strong momentum which indicates a potential wave C (blue).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD bearish breakout below the support trend line (dotted green) has not shown the momentum which a wave typically has. Therefore, the wave count now shows a wave 4 (blue) completed at the recent top. Price is either completing a 5th wave (blue) or more likely expanding it via an internal 5 waves (pink) as shown in the image.

1 hour

The GBP/USD broke the resistance trend line (dotted red) and is building a bullish ABC zigzag (green).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY seems to be building a hook back to the support tend line (green). A bearish break would invalidate wave 1-2 (green) and revive the downtrend.

1 hour

The USD/JPY broke the support of bull flag chart pattern (dotted green) and is now at/near the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 (green).

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#10

US Dollar is close to completing wave 2 correction 

EUR/USD 

 4 hour

 

The EUR/USD is now testing and challenging the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of wave 2 (purple). A break above the 100% level invalidates wave 2 (purple) and means that a larger wave 2 (brown) is still ongoing and active. 

1 hour 

 

The EUR/USD seems to be losing momentum at the Fibonacci resistance and has broken the steeply angled support trend line (green dotted). Price needs to break below the support trend line (green) before the completion of a wave 2 (purple) can be confirmed. 

 GBP/USD 

 4 hour

 

The GBP/USD remains in a downtrend with resistance indicated by the Fibonacci retracements of wave 2 (purple) and with targets indicated by the Fibonacci levels of wave 5 (blue). 

 1 hour

 

The GBP/USD completed the expected bullish ABC (green) zigzag. It could now be at a bullish bounce or bearish break spot. A bullish rally would enlarge the correction with a WXY (green). A break below the Fibonacci levels of wave X (green) could spark a wave 3 bearish momentum (pink). 

USD/JPY

4 hour

 

The USD/JPY seems to be building a hook back to the support tend line (green). A bearish break would invalidate wave 1-2 (green) and revive the downtrend. A bullish bounce could see price rally to the Fibonacci targets of wave 3 (green) and the resistance trend lines (orange/red).

1 hour

 

The USD/JPY seems to be respecting the 78.6% Fibonacci level of wave 2 (green) and has broken the resistance trend line (dotted red).

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#11

Breakout direction to decide wave structure in Forex

EUR/USD

4 hour 

 

The EUR/USD bounced at the deep Fibonacci retracement level of 78.6% within a wave 2 (purple). A break above the 100% level invalidates wave 2 (purple) and indicates a large and complex correction. In that case the wave count will be changed to reflect the corrective zone. A break below support could still confirm the potential waves 3 (purple/brown) but sufficient momentum must be visible in the breakouts.

 1 hour

 

The EUR/USD has clear resistance (red/Fib) and support levels above and below price. A bearish break could start the impulsive waves (purple/blue) whereas a bullish breakout would indicate an ABC correction (purple).

 GBP/USD

 4 hour

 

 The GBP/USD is either completing a wave 5 (blue) or extending the wave 5 (blue) with a wave 1-2 (pink). 

 1 hour

 

The GBP/USD seems to have completed an ABC correction (blue) at the previous bottom, which has been labelled a wave X (green). A break below the support (green) and Fibonacci levels of wave X vs W invalidate the current wave count and indicate a downtrend continuation. A break above resistance (red) would most likely confirm a bullish rally for wave C (blue).

 USD/JPY

 4 hour

The USD/JPY indeed bounced at the support tend line (green). A bullish break above resistance (oranges) would confirm potential for a wave 3 rally (green). 

 1 hour

 

The USD/JPY has completed deep wave 2 pullbacks and might be starting with bullish momentum. A strong resistance level (red) however is nearby and a breakout is needed before the wave rally can develop. 

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#12

EUR/USD bullish breakout in wave E of contracting triangle

EUR/USD

4 hour

  

The EUR/USD is testing the resistance trend line (red). A breakout above resistance could see price move towards the wave E (green) of wave 4 (blue), which has been added due to the lack of a bearish breakout. The consolidation zone on the daily chart is lengthy and suggests a contracting triangle chart pattern (ABCDE brown).

1 hour

 

The EUR/USD showed bullish momentum above the broken trend line (dotted red). Price is building an ABC bullish zigzag (blue) unless price breaks below the 100% Fibonacci level of wave B.

GBP/USD

4 hour 

The GBP/USD is either completing a wave 5 (blue) or extending the wave 5 (blue) with a wave 1-2 (pink).

1 hour 

  

The GBP/USD seems to have completed an ABC correction (blue) within wave Y (green) of wave 2 (pink). A break above the 100% Fibonacci level invalidates wave 2 (green).

USD/JPY

4 hour

 

The USD/JPY bounced at the support tend line (green) but has not managed to move away from it and is challenging the same trend line again. A bullish break above resistance (oranges) would confirm potential for a wave 3 rally (green). A bearish break below the 100% Fibonacci level indicates a potential for a renewed bearish trend. 

1 hour 

 

The USD/JPY has to break above the resistance trend line (orange) before a wave 2 (green) can be considered completed. The 100% Fibonacci level is the invalidation point of the wave 2 (green).

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#13

USD/JPY bearish breakout expands wave B correction to 61.8% Fib

EUR/USD

4 hour 

 

The EUR/USD is testing the resistance trend line (red) of a larger contracting triangle chart pattern (ABCDE brown). A bullish breakout could see price move towards the wave E (green) of wave 4 (blue).

1 hour 

 

The EUR/USD needs to break support (green) or resistance (red) trend lines before momentum can be expected.

GBP/USD

4 hour 

 The GBP/USD is either completing a wave 5 (blue) or extending the wave 5 (blue) with an internal 5 wave (pink).

1 hour 

  

The GBP/USD is building a neat downtrend channel (trend lines). A break above the channel and 100% Fibonacci level invalidates wave 2 (green).

USD/JPY

4 hour

  

 The USD/JPY broke below the support tend line (dotted greens), which confirms the bearish wave structure. Price seems to have space to fall towards the Fibonacci levels with main target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of wave B vs A.

1 hour

 

 The USD/JPY seems to be building a wave 3 breakout. 

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#14

EUR/USD, GBP/USD move impulsively towards Fibonacci targets

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is in a bullish momentum which is part of a larger contracting triangle chart pattern (ABCDE green).

1 hour



The EUR/USD showed a retracement back towards the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level which completed wave 4 (orange). The wave 5 (orange) is heading towards the Fibonacci targets.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is either completing a wave 5 (blue) or extending the wave 5 (blue) with an internal 5 wave indicated by wave 1-2 (pink). A break below the previous bottom (green) is needed before an extension of the downtrend is confirmed.

1 hour

The GBP/USD indeed completed a wave B (green) correction and is moving higher as part of the wave C (green). A break of the resistance trend line (orange) or retest and bounce at the support trend line (green) could lead to bullish continuation towards the Fibonacci targets.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is struggling to break the horizontal support of the previous bottom (green). Price will either break the support for a downtrend continuation or break above the resistance and potentially start a reversal.

1 hour

The USD/JPY needs to break below the Fibonacci levels of wave X vs W before a continuation of the bearish momentum is expected. At the moment a bullish ABC zigzag (green) seems the most likely scenario.

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#15

EUR/USD, GBP/USD continue with bullish momentum in wave 3


EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD continued its strong bullish momentum yesterday and throughout the week. This

seems to have completed an impulsive wave 3 (green) and one more push higher (wave 5 green)

could occur if a corrective wave 4 (green) pattern develops.

1 hour



The EUR/USD could bounce at the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (green). A break below the 61.8%

Fibonacci level and trend line (green) invalidates the wave 4 (green).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is either completing a wave 5 (blue) or extending the wave 5 (blue) with an internal 5

wave indicated by wave 1-2 (pink). Price has not reached the 61.8% Fibonacci level of wave 2 vs 1 but

a break above the 100% Fib level invalidates the pink 1-2. A break below the previous bottom (green)

is needed before an extension of the downtrend is confirmed.

1 hour




The GBP/USD broke the resistance trend line (orange) yesterday and showed bullish impulsiveness as

expected within the wave C (green) zigzag. Price could now bounce at the Fibonacci levels of wave 4

(blue) but a break below the 61.8% Fibonacci level, however, invalidates the wave 4 (green).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY will either break the support for a downtrend continuation or break above the

resistance and potentially start a reversal. Consider the struggle to break the horizontal support of

the previous bottom (green), a larger upside correction or reversal seems most likely.

1 hour



The USD/JPY indeed completed the wave A (green) and wave B (green) as shown yesterday. A break

above the resistance (red) should initiate wave C (green).

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