EUR/USD: Shift from bullish to neutral: In a 1.1190/1.1370 range.

As highlighted yesterday, unless EUR can move and stay above 1.1310/15, the bullish outlook would shift to neutral. While further EUR strength would not be surprising further out, the current price action suggests that this pair has entered a consolidation phase and only a clear break out of the expected 1.1190/1.1370 sideway trading range would indicate the start of directional move.

GBP/USD: Bullish: Target 1.3370/75.

We turned bullish GBP yesterday and there is no change to the view. The immediate target and stop-loss remains unchanged at 1.3375 and 1.3100 respectively

AUD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.7560/0.7690 range.

AUD traded sideways for the past several days and the recent short-term downward bias has eased. The outlook remains neutral for now but instead of extending lower to 0.7545/50 as previously expected, the current price action suggests that AUD is more likely to continue to trade sideways within a broad 0.7560/0.7690 range.

NZD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.7170/0.7350 range. [No change in view]

NZD continues to trade choppily and there is no change to our neutral view. Further broad sideway consolidation still seems likely and only a clear break out of the expected 0.7170/0.7350 range would indicate the start of a directional move

USD/JPY: Shift form bearish to neutral: In a 99.90/101.30 range.

As indicated yesterday, unless USD can move and stay below 99.90, the bearish outlook would shift to neutral. From here, sideway trading seems likely in the days ahead and only a clear break out of the expected 99.90/101.30 range would indicate the start of a sustained directional move.

EUR/USD: Neutral: Increased downside risk but bearish only if below 1.1160.

We shifted to a neutral stance last Friday and expected EUR to trade sideways within a 1.1190/1.1370 range. EUR rose to a high of 1.1340 before dropping sharply to end near the low at 1.1195. The short-term risk is clearly on the downside but we prefer to see a clear break of 1.1160 before shifting to a bearish stance. The odds for such a move appear to be quite high unless EUR can move and stay above 1.1240 within these 1 to 2 days.

GBP/USD: Bullish: Increasing risk of a short-term top.

The sharp drop last Friday clearly does bode well for our current bullish view on GBP. The risk of a short-term top has increased considerably but only a break below 1.3100 would indicate that the bullish phase has ended. This appears to be a likely scenario unless GBP can recover above 1.3210 from here.

AUD/USD: Shift from neutral to bearish: Immediate target of 0.7485.*

AUD not only broke below the strong 0.7560 support but closed below this level last Friday. This suggests further downward pressure in AUD and the current weakness is expected to extend further to 0.7485. In order to maintain the current momentum, a move back above 0.7630 is enough to indicate that our bearish expectation is wrong.

NZD/USD: Shift from neutral to bearish: Target a break below 0.7170.*

NZD surged to 0.7380 last Friday (fresh year’s high) before reversing abruptly and closed sharply lower at 0.7235. The bearish reversal day is enough to convince us that we have seen a top. From here, the immediate target is at 0.7170. Strong resistance is at 0.7260 but only a move 0.7310 would indicate that our bearish view is wrong.

USD/JPY: Shift from neutral to bullish: Upside likely limited to 102.80.*

We shifted to a neutral stance last Friday and did not expect the subsequent strong rally that easily took out successive major resistances. The outlook for USD has shifted to bullish but it seems that we may have seen a chunk of the up-move and from here, the upside potential appears to be limited to 102.80 (minor peak seen earlier this month). In order to maintain the current bullish momentum, any pull-back should not move back below 101.00.

EUR/USD: Neutral: Increased downside risk but bearish only if below 1.1160.

As highlighted yesterday, while the short-term risk is on the downside, we prefer to see a clear break below 1.1160 before turning bearish. EUR dipped to a low of 1.1156 but rebounded quickly. However, the undertone remains weak and unless EUR can move and stay above 1.1240, the predominating risk is still on the downside.

GBP/USD: Shift from bullish to neutral: In a 1.2980/1.3210 range.

The drop back below 1.3100 yesterday indicates that our recent expectation for GBP to extend higher to 1.3370 was wrong. From here, the outlook for GBP is deemed as neutral and we expect to see broad range trading, likely within a 1.2980/1.3210 range.

AUD/USD: Bearish: Immediate target of 0.7485.*

There is no change to the view wherein we expected the sharp drop in AUD from last Friday to extend lower towards 0.7485. Strong resistance is at 0.7610 but only a move above 0.7630 would indicate that our bearish expectation is wrong.

NZD/USD: Bearish: Target a break below 0.7170.*

There is no change to the current bearish NZD view and from here, we continue to expect to see further down-move towards 0.7170. Stop-loss remains unchanged 0.7310.

USD/JPY: Bullish: Upside likely limited to 102.80.*

As highlighted yesterday, while the outlook for USD has shifted to bullish, it is likely that we have seen a chunk of the USD strength last Friday and from there, the upside potential appears to be limited to 102.80. Overall, only a move back below the stop-loss at 101.00 would indicate that a shortterm top is in place.

EUR/USD: Shift from neutral to bearish: Target at 1.1065/70.*

The clear break below 1.1160 finally shifted the outlook for EUR to bearish. From here, we have an immediate objective of 1.1065/70. In order to maintain the current momentum, any short-term rebound should not move back above 1.1210.

GBP/USD: Neutral: In a 1.2980/1.3210 range.

We shifted to a neutral stance for GBP yesterday and there is no change to the view. The outlook for the next couple of weeks appears to be neutral and we expect GBP to trade sideways, likely within a broad 1.2980/1.3210 range. That said, the immediate bias is on the downside and the odds for a move to 1.2980 first is higher than a move to 1.3210.

AUD/USD: Bearish: Immediate target of 0.7485.*

The bearish phase that started on Monday is still clearly intact and the immediate target highlighted previously at 0.7485 appears to be within reach. A clear break below this level would shift the focus to the next support at 0.7420/25. 

NZD/USD: Bearish: Target a break below 0.7170.*

There is not much to add and we continue to stay bearish NZD and expect a break below the major 0.7170 support. A move below this level would shift the focus towards the 0.7085/90 low seen in early August. 

USD/JPY: Bullish: Next target at 104.00.

While we were of the view that USD could continue to advance, the sudden acceleration higher that sliced through the major 102.80 resistance was unexpected. The outlook for USD is still clearly bullish and from here, the target has shifted to 104.00 (falling trend-line resistance & the minor low in late July).

EUR/USD: Bearish: Target at 1.1065/70.*

We turned bearish EUR yesterday and there is no change to the view. Downward momentum is not as impulsive as we would like but as long as 1.1210 is not taken out, the prospect for a move to the immediate target of 1.1065/70 still appears to be quite high.

GBP/USD: Neutral: In a 1.2980/1.3210 range.

The neutral phase that started on Tuesday is still intact. GBP traded in a choppy manner yesterday and for the next one week or so, we continue to expect sideway trading within a broad range, likely between 1.2980 and 1.3210.

AUD/USD: Bearish: Immediate target of 0.7485.*

The overnight low of 0.7490 was just a few pips above our bearish target of 0.7485. The outlook is still deemed as bearish and a break below 0.7485 would shift the focus to 0.7420/25. Stop-loss remains unchanged at 0.7600 for now.

NZD/USD: Bearish: Target a break below 0.7170.*[No change in view]

There is not much to add and we continue to stay bearish NZD and expect a break below the major 0.7170 support. A move below this level would shift the focus towards the 0.7085/90 low seen in early August. 

USD/JPY: Bullish: Next target at 104.00.

The outlook for USD is still clearly bullish as we witnessed 6 straight days of higher daily closing. The revised target is unchanged at 104.00.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Long Euro Above $1.1166

The EUR/USD currency pair has jumped to $1.1166 on Wednesday and started to decline from that level. It is currently trading around $1.1140.

The pair is facing strong support at 200-days moving average of $1.1110 and any violation below confirms minor weakness, a decline to $1.1045-$1.1000 is possible.

On the higher side, any break above $1.1166 will take the pair to next immediate resistance at 100-days moving average of $1.12150-$1.1260. EUR/USD must close above 100-days moving average for further bullishness.

Trade Idea: Long Euro above $1.11660 with stop loss at $1.1100 targeting $1.12150-$1.1260.

source

EUR/USD: Increasing risk of short-term low.*

The unexpected strong recovery yesterday has clearly increased the risk of a short-term low. A move above 1.1210 would indicate the start of a neutral consolidation phase, likely between 1.1120 and 1.1280. Only a clear break below the major 1.1120 support would indicate that the next leg lower has started.

GBP/USD: Shift from neutral to bullish: Target 1.3370/75.*

The sudden surge higher in GBP is clearly not expected. Strong upward momentum coupled with the breach of major resistances has shifted the outlook to bullish again. However, July’s peak of 1.3370/75 is another major resistance and this level may not be easy to crack. Support is at 1.3180 but only a move below 1.3130 would indicate that our bullish expectation is wrong.

AUD/USD: Bearish: To take partial profit at 0.7485.*

AUD rebounded quickly after coming close to the immediate target of 0.7485 (low of 0.7490 on Wednesday). Downward momentum is showing signs of slowing and the prospect for a sustained move below 0.7485 has dimmed. Those who are short should look to book partial profit on any move to 0.7485/90.

NZD/USD: Bearish: Increasing risk of a short-term low.*

The rebound from the 0.7204 low on Tuesday has been more resilient than expected. While the 0.7310 stop-loss is still intact, it is getting increasingly likely that NZD is trying to form a short-term base. Unless there is a drop below 0.7200 within these 1 to 2 days, a break above 0.7310 appears to be a likely scenario.

USD/JPY: 104.00 target met but diminished odds for further USD strength.

The revised 104.00 was met yesterday but the subsequent sharp drop has clearly dented the recent upward momentum. While the outlook is still deemed as bullish, USD has to punch through 104.00 soon as a prolonged consolidation below this level would lead to a rapid loss in momentum. Support is at 102.70 but only a break below 102.00 would indicate that the bullish phase has ended.

EUR/USD: Neutral: In a 1.1080/1.1260 range.

We shifted to neutral stance yesterday and there is no change to the view. The current movement in EUR is viewed as part of a consolidation phase and only a clear break out of the expected 1.1080/1.1260 range would indicate the start of a sustained directional move.

GBP/USD: Bullish: Target at 1.3370/75 met. Low odds for extension to 1.3480.

The 1.3370/75 bullish target that was first highlighted last Friday was briefly exceeded as GBP spiked to a high of 1.3376 yesterday. As indicated previously, this is a major resistance and may not be easy to break. At this stage, the down-move from the high is deemed as a corrective pullback and as long as 1.3200 is intact, another attempt to move clearly above 1.3375 seems likely. That said, the odds for further extension towards the next resistance at 1.3480 are not high.

AUD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.7500/0.7660 range.

We shifted from bearish to neutral AUD yesterday and there is no change to the view. However, the rebound from the low is gaining momentum quickly and could extend higher in the coming days but 0.7660 is a very strong resistance and only a clear break above this level would indicate the start of a bullish phase. Support is at 0.7540 ahead of 0.7500.

NZD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.7240/0.7380 range.

As highlighted yesterday, while short-term momentum has improved, only a clear break above 0.7380 would indicate the start of a sustained up-move in NZD. Overall, the outlook is deemed as neutral for now even though the upward pressure would continue to grow unless there is a move back below 0.7240.

USD/JPY: Bullish: Lower odds for further extension to 104.70.

While the bullish phase that started last Monday is still intact, the USD rally over the past week is clearly overstretched and the odds for further extension to 104.70 are not high (last Friday 104.30 high is already acting as a very strong resistance). However, only a break below 102.60 would indicate that the bullish phase has ended.

EUR/USD: Neutral: Bullish only if daily closing above 1.1300.

EUR edged above the strong short-term resistance at 1.1260 yesterday to touch a high of 1.1263 and is currently holding just below this level. While the undertone has improved considerably, only a daily closing above 1.1300 (minor trend-line resistance) would indicate the start of a sustained up-move to 1.1365. Overall, EUR is expected to stay underpinned in the next few days as long as the solid support at 1.1150 is not taken out.

GBP/USD: Bullish: To take partial profit at 1.3480.

While GBP continues to extend its recent strong gains, shorter-term momentum is showing signs of tiring and with the mid-July high of 1.3480 looming as a strong resistance, those who are long from last week may like to take some partial profit on any approach to 1.3480. Support is at 1.3350 but only a move below 1.3300 would indicate that the current bullish phase has ended.

AUD/USD: Shift from neutral to bullish: Immediate target of 0.7740.

As highlighted, a clear break above 0.7660 (overnight high of 0.7688) would indicate that AUD has entered a bullish phase. The immediate target is at 0.7740. Support is at 0.7635 but only a move below 0.7585 would indicate that our bullish expectation is wrong.

NZD/USD: Shift from neutral to bullish: Overbought but room to extend further to 0.7460. 

The ease of which NZD took out the strong 0.7380 resistance has shifted the outlook to bullish. While shorterterm indicators are quickly approaching overbought, the current rally appears to have room to extend further to 0.7460. 

USD/JPY: Shift from bullish to neutral: Pull-back has scope to extend lower to 100.05.

The bullish phase that started last Monday ended abruptly with the breach of 102.60 yesterday. The current sharp pullback appears to have scope to extend lower to 100.05 in the coming days but a sustained move below this level is not expected. Only a move back above 102.80 would indicate that the immediate downward pressure has eased.

EUR/USD: Neutral: Bullish only if daily closing above 1.1300.

As highlighted yesterday, despite the improved undertone, EUR has to move clearly above the major 1.1300 resistance before a sustained up-move can be expected. Overall, EUR is expected to stay underpinned in the next few days as long as the solid support at 1.1150 is not taken out.

GBP/USD: Bullish: Risk of a short-term top has increased.

While we highlighted the waning upward momentum yesterday, the sharp and rapid drop to a low of 1.3320 was unexpected. Unless GBP can move and stay above 1.3400 within these 1 to 2 days, the risk of a shortterm top would continue to increase.

AUD/USD: Bullish: Immediate target of 0.7740.

The break of the minor trend-line resistance is accompanied by daily MACD crossing into positive territory. This set-up suggests that AUD has likely found a base at the 0.7490 low last week. While upward momentum is not very strong at this stage, there is a good chance that we could see a move higher towards 0.7740. 0.7740/0.7760 is a strong resistance zone and a clear break above these levels would be a strong indication that a move towards (and possibly beyond) the April’s high of 0.7836 has started. On a shorter-term note, overbought indicators may lead to 1 to 2 days of consolidation first but as long as 0.7585 is not take out, we would maintain our bullish expectation for AUD.

NZD/USD: Bullish: Rally incomplete but lower odds for extension to 0.7530.

The 0.7460 target indicated yesterday was quickly exceeded as NZD continues with its impressive advance over the last few days. The rally appears incomplete but severely overbought conditions suggest that the odds for further extension to 0.7530 are not high. That said, the outlook for this pair is considered as bullish until 0.7370 is take out.

USD/JPY: Neutral: Pull-back has scope to extend lower to 100.05.

The neutral phase that started yesterday is still intact. We continue to view the current movement as a corrective pullback that has scope to extend lower towards the major 100.05 support (this is a major support and a clear break below this level is not expected). Only a move back above 102.80 would indicate that the short-term downward pressure has eased.