EUR/USD: Bearish: Immediate target at 1.0905/10.

We turned bearish EUR yesterday and there is no change to our view. The immediate target is for a move to the 1.0905/10 low seen on the day of Brexit. Stop-loss remains unchanged at 1.1040.

GBP/USD: Neutral: In a 1.2960/1.3320 range.

We shifted to a neutral stance about 2 weeks ago and since then GBP has been trading choppily within a broad range. However, downward momentum has improved somewhat but only a clear break below the major 1.2960 support would indicate the start of a sustained down-move. At this stage, the prospect for such a move appears to be quite low.

AUD/USD: Neutral: Pull-back has room to extend further 0.7400. [No change in view]

We shifted to a neutral stance last Tuesday and expected the pull-back in AUD to extend lower to 0.7445. While this level was tested and held last Friday with a low of 0.7443, the immediate pressure is still on the downside and further decline towards the next major support at 0.7400 would not be surprising. Overall, this pair is expected to remain under pressure unless it can reclaim the strong 0.7530 resistance.

NZD/USD: Bearish: To take partial profit at 0.6895.

While the current bearish NZD view is still intact, momentum indicators are showing early signs of slowing down and those who are short should look to take partial profit on any move lower to the revised target at 0.6895. Stop-loss remains unchanged at 0.7080 for now even though 0.7030 is already a strong resistance.

USD/JPY: Neutral: Deeper pull-back only if below 104.50.

The pull-back from the 107.47 high late last week has been more resilient than expected and is currently approaching the strong 104.50 support. We were of the view that 104.50 is the lower end of an expected 104.50/107.50 consolidation range but the pace of the drop has increased the risk of a deeper pull-back. However, only a clear move below 104.50 would indicate an extension towards 103.50 has started. Overall, the shorter-term outlook has deteriorated considerably and the downward pressure would continue to grow unless USD can move and stay above 106.20 in the next few days (the high 105.85/90 seen after NY closing is already a strong resistance).

Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY

EUR/USD: Shift from bearish to neutral: Rebound could extend to 1.1150.

Our recent bearish expectation was proven wrong quickly as EUR moved above the key 1.0950 resistance. The outlook for this pair has shifted to neutral once again. However, the strong up-move yesterday has resulted in a positive undertone and the current rebound could extend higher to 1.1150. This is a major resistance and at this stage, a sustained move above this level is not expected. Overall, EUR is expected to remain underpinned in the coming days with solid support at 1.1000 and 1.0960.

GBP/USD: Neutral: Undertone has improved but 1.3320 is a major resistance.

While shorter-term upward momentum has improved, a sustained up-move in GBP is likely only if there is a clear break above the strong 1.3320 resistance. At this stage, the odds for a break of this level are not high even though it has increased. Overall, the positive undertone would continue to improve as long as GBP stays above 1.3070.

AUD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.7440/0.7600 range.

AUD traded in a volatile manner yesterday by surging to a high of 0.7568 before dropping to a low of 0.7420. The subsequent swing higher has resulted in a mixed outlook and we continue to hold a neutral view. Further choppy trading is expected, likely within a 0.7440/0.7600 range.

NZD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.6950/0.7120 range.

There is no change to the neutral outlook in NZD. However, it is currently pressuring the top-end of our expected sideway trading range of 0.6950/0.7120. At this stage, a sustained move above 0.7120 is not expected (next resistance is at 0.7170). That said, the undertone has clearly improved and any short-term pull-back within the next few days is expected to encounter solid support at 0.7010.

USD/JPY: Neutral: In a 103.80/107.00 range.

While the short-term downward pressure has eased with the sharp spike to a high of 106.53 yesterday, the neutral phase that started late last week is still intact. Instead of extending lower to 103.50 as expected previously, the current high volatility suggests that USD is more likely to trade sideways within a broad 103.80/107.00 range from here.

source

Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD

EUR/USD: Neutral: Rebound could extend to 1.1150.

We shifted to a neutral EUR stance yesterday and held the view that the current rebound in EUR could extend higher to 1.1150. We have seen a high of 1.1118 so far and the pullback from the top appears to be corrective in nature and from here, we continue to anticipate a move to 1.1150 (next resistance is at 1.1180/85). Support is at 1.1040 but the key level is 1.1000 (breach of this level would indicate that immediate upward pressure has eased).

GBP/USD: Neutral: Undertone has improved but 1.3320 is a major resistance. [No change in view]

While shorter-term upward momentum has improved, a sustained up-move in GBP is likely only if there is a clear break above the strong 1.3320 resistance. At this stage, the odds for a break of this level are not high even though it has increased. Overall, the positive undertone would continue to improve as long as GBP stays above 1.3070.

AUD/USD: Neutral: In a higher range of 0.7000/0.7170 range.

While shorter-term momentum continues to improve and a move above the strong 0.7120 resistance would not be surprising, any further NZD strength is viewed as a ‘range extension’ and not the start of a sustained rally. In other words, there is no change to the current neutral outlook but NZD is more likely to trade at a higher 0.7010/0.7170 range instead of the 0.6950/0.7120 range expected previously.

Neutral: In a 0.7440/0.7600 range. [No change in view]

AUD traded in a volatile manner yesterday by surging to a high of 0.7568 before dropping to a low of 0.7420. The subsequent swing higher has resulted in a mixed outlook and we continue to hold a neutral view. Further choppy trading is expected, likely within a 0.7440/0.7600 range.

source

I can see an excellent entrance to the usdjpy market after passing the 102.00 level. The price will go down.

Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY

EUR/USD: Shift from neutral to bullish: Target a move to 1.1280.

The expected recovery in EUR was more robust and resilient than expected. The ease of which the 1.1150 resistance was taken out suggests further upside pressure. At this stage, the potential appears to be limited to 1.1280. Stop-loss for the bullish view is at 1.1060

GBP/USD: Neutral: Undertone has improved but 1.3320 is a major resistance.

The neutral phase in GBP that started more than 2 weeks ago is still intact. As highlighted in recent updates, while shorterterm upward momentum has improved, a sustained up-move in GBP is likely only if there is a clear break above the strong 1.3320 resistance. At this stage, the odds for a break of this level are not high even though they have increased considerably. Overall, the positive undertone would continue to improve as long as GBP stays above 1.3100.

AUD/USD: Neutral: Bullish if daily closing above 0.7600.

AUD is currently pressuring the top end of our expected 0.7440/0.7600 sideway trading range. Upward momentum has improved considerably and a daily closing above 0.7600 would indicate that a move towards 0.7675/80 (and possibly beyond) has started. Overall, this pair is expected to stay underpinned in the next few days with solid support at 0.7490.

NZD/USD: Shift from neutral to bullish: Overbought but room to extend higher to 0.7325.

We clearly underestimated the recent NZD strength as it continues to surge higher. The outlook has shifted to bullish but shorter-term indicators are severely overbought. That said, further extension to 0.7325 would not be surprising. Strong support is at 0.7150 but only a break below 0.7080 would indicate that the bullish expectation is wrong.

USD/JPY: Shift from neutral to bearish: Severely oversold but room to extend further 101.10.

The 3% plunge in USD last Friday has shifted the outlook to bearish. However, the rapid drop is clearly oversold but based on the current momentum, further extension to 101.10 would not be surprising (next support is at July’s low of 100.00/05). In order to maintain the current momentum, any rebound should not move back above 104.20.

Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY

EUR/USD: Bullish: Target a move to 1.1280.

We shifted to a bullish EUR stance yesterday and there is no change to the view. At this stage, the upside potential appears to be limited to 1.1280. Stop-loss remains unchanged at 1.1060. There is not much to add as the tight 30 pips range yesterday does not offer further clues.

GBP/USD: Neutral: Undertone has improved but 1.3320 is a major resistance.

The neutral phase in GBP that started more than 2 weeks ago is still intact. As highlighted in recent updates, while shorterterm upward momentum has improved, a sustained up-move in GBP is likely only if there is a clear break above the strong 1.3320 resistance. At this stage, the odds for a break of this level are not high even though they have increased considerably. Overall, the positive undertone would continue to improve as long as GBP stays above 1.3100.

AUD/USD: Neutral: Back in a 0.7440/0.7600 range.

While AUD moved above 0.7600 yesterday (high of 0.7616), it was unable to hold on to its gains. As highlighted, only a daily closing above 0.7600 would indicate the start of a sustained up-move. The rapid pull-back from the high suggests that the short-term upward pressure has eased and the outlook for AUD remains neutral for now. To put it another way, this pair has likely moved back into a 0.7440/0.7600 range and only a clear break out of this range would indicate the start of a sustained directional move.

NZD/USD: Bullish: Overbought but room to extend higher to 0.7325.

We turned bullish NZD yesterday but were of the view that the recent rally was over-extended. That said, further extension to 0.7325 would not be surprising. Only a move back below 0.7080 would indicate that a short-term top is in place.

USD/JPY: Bearish: Severely oversold but room to extend further to 101.10.

There is no change to the current bearish USD view. Despite being oversold, the sharp drop from last Friday appears to have room to extend lower to 101.10. Stop-loss remains unchanged at 104.20 for now even though 103.00 is already a strong short-term resistance.

source

EUR/USD: Bullish: Target a move to 1.1280.

The price action so far is line with our expectation as EUR continues to move higher at a lackluster pace. When we turned bullish on Monday, we were of the view that the upside potential is likely limited to 1.1280 (this level is still acting as a major resistance). That said, a ‘clean and clear’ break above this level could lead to acceleration higher as the next significant resistance is much further up at 1.1430/35, the high on the day of Brexit.

GBP/USD: Neutral: Room for further extension to 1.3420.

While we were of the view that the shorter-term recovery could extend higher to 1.3320 (see previous updates), the ease of which this strong resistance was taken out was unexpected. From here, the undertone is clearly positive and the current rebound has room to extend further to 1.3420. A clear break above this level would greatly increase the odds for a move to the post-Brexit high of 1.3600 (with strong intervening resistance at 1.3480). In the next few days, GBP is expected to stay underpinned with solid support at 1.3200.

AUD/USD: Bullish – immediate target of 0.7675/80.

As highlighted yesterday, a clear break out of the expected 0.7440/0.7600 sideway trading range would indicate the start of a sustained directional move. AUD touched a low of 0.7486 but reversed swiftly to take out the major 0.7600 resistance (high of 0.7638). This coupled with the strong daily closing is enough to indicate that the 2-week neutral phase has shifted to bullish. From here, the immediate target is at the July’s high of 0.7675/80 followed by 0.7720. Support is at 0.7550 but only a move below 0.7485 would indicate that the bullish view is wrong.

NZD/USD: Bullish: Overbought but room to extend higher to 0.7325.

There is no change to the current bullish NZD view. As highlighted previously, while shorter-term indicators are overbought, the current NZD strength has room to extend further to 0.7325. 

USD/JPY: Bearish: 101.10 target exceeded, next support at 100.00/05.

The 101.10 target indicated on Monday was exceeded with a low of 100.65 yesterday. The outlook for USD is still deemed as bearish and the next level to aim for is at 100.00/05, the low in early July. Stop-loss on shorts should adjusted lower to 102.80 from 104.20 even though 101.95/00 is already a very strong shorter-term resistance.

source

EUR/USD: Bullish: Increased risk of a short-term top.

While the stop-loss for our bullish EUR view  is still intact at the time of writing, the unexpected sharp drop yesterday clearly indicates an increased risk of a short-term top. A move below 1.1130 would shift the outlook to neutral and suggest a period of broad sideway consolidation has started. This appears likely unless EUR can move and stay above 1.1215 within these 1 to 2 days.

GBP/USD: Neutral: Room for further extension to 1.3420.

The undertone for GBP is still positive and the current recovery has room to extend higher to test the strong 1.3420 resistance. Based on the current momentum, a sustained move above this level seems unlikely. The next resistance is at 1.3480, the high in mid-July. In the next few days, GBP is expected to stay underpinned with solid support at 1.3200.

AUD/USD: Bullish: Immediate target at 0.7675/80.

We turned bullish AUD yesterday and there is no change to the view. The immediate target is at 0.7675/80 followed by 0.7720. Stop-loss remains unchanged at 0.7485 for now but 0.7550 is likely strong enough to hold any short-term pull-back.

NZD/USD: Bullish: Overbought but room to extend higher to 0.7325. [No change in view]

There is no change to the current bullish NZD view. As highlighted previously, while shorter-term indicators are overbought, the current NZD strength has room to extend further to 0.7325.

USD/JPY: Bearish: Next target at 100.00/05

The 101.10 target that was first indicated on Monday was quickly exceeded (low of 100.65 so far). Downward momentum remains strong and the next obvious level to aim for is at 100.00/05, the low in early July. Below this level, the next support is at 99.08, the low on the day of Brexit. Overall, the outlook for USD is viewed as bearish until102.80 is taken out. On a shorter-term note, 101.95/00 is already a very strong resistance

source

EUR/USD: Shift from bullish to neutral: Back to range trading, likely between 1.1020 and 1.1250.

The breach of 1.1130 yesterday indicates that the recent bullish phase has ended without meeting the 1.1280 target (high of 1.1230/35). The pull-back from the high is clearly not impulsive and at this stage, there is no reason to expect a sustained down-move. In other words, the outlook for EUR is neutral and we expect to see range trading, likely within a 1.1020/1.1250 range..

GBP/USD: Neutral: Bearish only if daily closing below 1.3050.

After the sharp drop yesterday, the immediate pressure is clearly on the downside. However, we are not convinced that the current movement is the start of a sustained down-move in GBP. There is a strong support at 1.3050 and only a daily closing below this level would indicate that a move towards the year-to-date low of 1.2795/00 has started. That said, GBP is expected to remain under pressure in the next several days unless it can move and stay above 1.3220.

AUD/USD: Bullish: Immediate target at 0.7675/80.

The bullish phase that started on Wednesday is still clearly intact. The immediate target of 0.7675/80 appears to be within reach and a break above this level would shift the focus to 0.7720. 

NZD/USD: Bullish: To take partial profit at 0.7290.

The consolidation over the past few days coupled with the still overbought conditions suggests an increasing risk of a short-term top. The ideal target of 0.7325 (July’s high) is likely out of reach for now and those who are long should consider booking at least partial profit on any approach to 0.7290. 

USD/JPY: Bearish: Next target at 100.00/05.

As highlighted yesterday, downward momentum remains strong and the outlook for USD is still bearish. A move below the recent low of 100.65 would shift the focus to 100.00/05, the low in early July. Strong resistance is at 101.95 but only a move above the stop-loss at 102.40 (adjusted lower from 102.80) would indicate that the bearish phase has ended.

source

Tech Targets: EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY

EUR/USD: Neutral: In a 1.1020/1.1250 range.

While shorter-term momentum has improved considerably, it is not enough to suggest that the current neutral outlook for EUR has shifted to bullish. However, the immediate pressure is clearly on the upside and the current EUR strength could extend higher within these few days to test the top end of our expected sideway trading range at 1.1250. Overall, only a move back below 1.1100 would indicate that the immediate upward pressure has eased.

AUD/USD: Bullish: To take partial profit at 0.7805. 

The bullish AUD phase that started last week is still clearly intact. In fact, the expected up-move in AUD has been more rapid and impulsive than anticipated as the rally over the past couple of days easily took out major resistances at 0.7675 and 0.7720. There is another strong level at 0.7765 (high of 0.7760 earlier this morning) and a clear break above this level would shift the focus towards the year-to-date high at 0.7836. Overall, only a move back below 0.7640 would indicate that the bullish phase has ended. In view of the rapid and extended rise, those who are long from last week may like to book partial profit ahead of the 0.7836 high (say near 0.7805/10).

 USD/JPY: Neutral: In a 100.50/102.80 range.

The outlook for USD is viewed as neutral and we expect this pair to trade within a broad 100.50/102.80 range for now.