Market: What's going on?

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Linuxser
Join date: 2006.05.13
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#1

Single Market commentaries.

Analytic and fundamentals about Markets.

Opinions and point of views...

So on...

If you have comment about Markets, some news from Experts, Newspaper or Websites opinions or articles or whatever that help to decipher what's going on fundamentally speaking...

This thread is for that.

fxkingg
Join date: 2006.04.28
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#2

Forex Trading Update - G7 pressures China to Make Currency More Flexible

Forex Trading Update - China came under renewed pressure today by G7 nations to make it's currency more flexible. Source: Bloomberg. Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty yesterday said: ``We need to see more flexibility in the Asian currencies''.

An official said the group will issue a statement later today which repeats exchange rate flexibility in China would be ``desirable.''

G7 Meetings and statements have been closely watched by forex traders since the 1985 Plaza Accord in New York, where ministers of the largest economies called for a weaker dollar, stronger yen and higher deutsche mark. Those words sparked a three-year slide in the U.S. currency, which the group tried to halt in 1987 when they met at the Louvre in Paris.

Click here for the whole article: G7 pressures China to Make Currency More Flexible

It would be interesting to see what happens this weekend. Definitely we will see some moves after the G7 meeting. It will be a fun Monday morning for forex trading.

What's your opinion? A dollar fall and asain currencies rise like the we had in April Or...

prasxz
Join date: 2006.06.20
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#3

will GBP going to 2.xxx ?

Hi all,

I need to know your long term analytics ....

will GBP going to 2.xxxx ?

thanks

========================

Forex Indicators Collection

yesican88
Join date: 2006.12.08
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#4

Forex Analysis And Recommendation - Updated Every Trading Day - It's Free !

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Scan
Join date: 2007.07.09
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#5

EUR/USD on historical minimum

EUR/USD was falling till absolutely historical minimum. Do dollar stop decline?

Scan
Join date: 2007.07.09
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#6

We will test 1.39 tomorrow, i suppose

geomd
Join date: 2007.09.10
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#7

aur going up to new level

is eur/usd going uo to 1.40 level.and turning down after this point ?.

Sinnerman
Join date: 2007.02.19
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#8

Media/Market Specutaltion Index

Fellow traders,

I am since a while on this forum but I am not posting a lot. ok. Very shortly about me: I am a PhD student writing my thesis in communication science and analyzing central banks communication. At the same I am an active forex trader. In frames of my PhD work I am introducing a new sentiment index which is supposed to be predictive. I put a short description here from my blog:

"As promised in previous posts I am going to put my new index on this blog. I think that the index requires a small explanation what is the idea behind and how it works.

What?: the Media Speculation Index (MSI shortly) is a part of my PhD work - it is something very new and in a testing phase. As I am working in a communication science I use a quite new approach to measure the market sentiment. I am a believer of the theory that the sentiment of buyers and sellers are one of the most important market forces which affects price action almost every minute and on every tick.

I have studied different available sentiment indicators and have found them to be not reliable for the short term (intraday traders). Therefore I was forced to create a new indicator for this exact trading style.

Why Media Speculation?: because this index measures where the sentiment of most important media sources like Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Economist, Forbes etc and it is based on the assumption that in these media sources are represented expectations, decisions, fears and hopes of most important market players.

What does it measure? In the future this index will be applicable to every currency pair or to every market product but currently I can use it only for EURUSD pair because of limitations in time (I am working alone on this and cannot conduct daily research for many indices).

How does it measure: MSI is based purely on qualitative content analysis.

How to read it: the initial starting point for the index is zero. It can move up or down that means it can go in plus or in minus - that is reach plus 500 pints or more or minus 500 points or less. Minimal rising pint is 0.1 and minimal falling pint is -0.1. It has no up or down limits. MSI can move 100 points up or down in a single day.

Why you need it: MSI is planned to be a price action forecasting tool, it is non lagging indicator.

How to interpret it: for exact methods of interpretation more empirical research is needed. Today I can say this: When MSI moves strongly up price action will be bullish and when it moves strongly down price action is expected to be bearish. If its moves are not strong in comparison with other days then market is expected to be range bound.

I will put first forecasts tomorrow. Please use it as a sentiment took for the market monitoring and not as only tool for the trades. It is very "beta" thing and only in the testing phase. And in this phase lot of unexpected things can occur."

ok that is all. I will appreciate your suggestions and will be happy for the new ideas.

Please note that this is not some commercial announcement. The index is completly free to use. Updates of index are available here:

Sinnerman`s Quest

If you have some questions I will answer them on this forum.

To moderators: if some parts of this post violate certain forum regulations please remove it.

prasxz
Join date: 2006.06.20
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#9

hi

Sinnerman:
Fellow traders,

I am since a while on this forum but I am not posting a lot. ok. Very shortly about me: I am a PhD student writing my thesis in communication science and analyzing central banks communication. At the same I am an active forex trader. In frames of my PhD work I am introducing a new sentiment index which is supposed to be predictive. I put a short description here from my blog:

"As promised in previous posts I am going to put my new index on this blog. I think that the index requires a small explanation what is the idea behind and how it works.

What?: the Media Speculation Index (MSI shortly) is a part of my PhD work - it is something very new and in a testing phase. As I am working in a communication science I use a quite new approach to measure the market sentiment. I am a believer of the theory that the sentiment of buyers and sellers are one of the most important market forces which affects price action almost every minute and on every tick.

I have studied different available sentiment indicators and have found them to be not reliable for the short term (intraday traders). Therefore I was forced to create a new indicator for this exact trading style.

Why Media Speculation?: because this index measures where the sentiment of most important media sources like Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Economist, Forbes etc and it is based on the assumption that in these media sources are represented expectations, decisions, fears and hopes of most important market players.

What does it measure? In the future this index will be applicable to every currency pair or to every market product but currently I can use it only for EURUSD pair because of limitations in time (I am working alone on this and cannot conduct daily research for many indices).

How does it measure: MSI is based purely on qualitative content analysis.

How to read it: the initial starting point for the index is zero. It can move up or down that means it can go in plus or in minus - that is reach plus 500 pints or more or minus 500 points or less. Minimal rising pint is 0.1 and minimal falling pint is -0.1. It has no up or down limits. MSI can move 100 points up or down in a single day.

Why you need it: MSI is planned to be a price action forecasting tool, it is non lagging indicator.

How to interpret it: for exact methods of interpretation more empirical research is needed. Today I can say this: When MSI moves strongly up price action will be bullish and when it moves strongly down price action is expected to be bearish. If its moves are not strong in comparison with other days then market is expected to be range bound.

I will put first forecasts tomorrow. Please use it as a sentiment took for the market monitoring and not as only tool for the trades. It is very "beta" thing and only in the testing phase. And in this phase lot of unexpected things can occur."

ok that is all. I will appreciate your suggestions and will be happy for the new ideas.

Please note that this is not some commercial announcement. The index is completly free to use. Updates of index are available here:

Sinnerman`s Quest

If you have some questions I will answer them on this forum.

To moderators: if some parts of this post violate certain forum regulations please remove it.

Hi,

Thanks for share your indicator here...what currency do u focus in ?

===================

Forex Indicators Collection

Sinnerman
Join date: 2007.02.19
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#10

Hello there. As said above I am currently analyzing only EURUSD. The indicator is universal, it can be used for every pair but it cannot be automatized or mechanized that is why the intercoder is always needed.

haymus
Join date: 2008.02.17
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#11

Watching out for the BIGDOGs

on the 5th of frb it was released that the BIGDOGs are long on gbp and short yen well i take a long on gj at 208.55 looking at a probability of 220.00 then 240.00

enjoy

and ask for more

philt
Join date: 2007.04.20
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#12

If your refering to futures, they are all pegged against the dollar..so cable will be long pound dollar and short yen dollar, not long pound yen

haymus
Join date: 2008.02.17
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#13

BIGDOGs

well who could have guess 100% on gbp and 5% on yen

i cannot be confused

MrM
Join date: 2007.07.10
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#14

Optimization of trading rules: how far is too far?

Hi,

One should wonder: what it the purpose of this forum: is it trying to find the next new TA indicator that seems to correlate with price on a certain timeframe & ccy pair? Is it discussing new technologies in trading? Is it about theoretical background? I think the latest article on the mql4.com website is a great way of finding trading rules that actually work, and this goes more into the direction of datamining than the average forum discussion about indicators etc.

I don't want this thread to be about trading rules, but about optimization, and optimization only.

The fact of the matter is that in-sample optimization is a matter of software ability: the better your technique (be it genetic algorithms to optimize technical trading rules or neural networks), the better you are able to fit your trading model to the in-sample data (the testing history). The problem for 99.99% of the systems is that once it goes out-of-sample (real trading on live data, or testing the optimized system on a new period), the performance drops back drastically.

Maybe we can find a quantitative methodology to express the difference between curve-fitting (overoptimization) and optimizing (adapting setting and rules to get a better performance, without capturing too much properties of the in-sample timeseries).

Now I once read somewhere that to avoid curve fitting, you should look at the sum of squares and once the graph starts turning back up, you should stop to avoid overoptimization. Something else I read is that you should test the variances (st dev squared) and once the difference between the variances of the in-sample and the test results on an out-of-sample timeseries is statistically different (with an ANOVA test), you have over-optimized.

I am looking forward to hearing feedback and opinions on quantitative (statistical) methods to avoid over-optimization!

(Mean square error, regression values, ...)

forexian
Join date: 2005.12.28
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#15

EURUSD: Setting up for a massive sell-off..??

Ladies and Gentlemen, Good-Day!

A bit of analysis on the pair. EURUSD made another all-time high at 6037, only to rebound sharply. Taking a look at the monthly chart, we see some type of a double top, as well as a bearish divergence with RSI. This is more dangerous than a mere double top, since divergences in monthly timeframes normally lead to losses of somewhere near 500 to 2000 pips. Take a look at the historical divergences.

Another convincing thing. My wave count on the Monthly EURUSD reveals that the pair is currently making its 4th corrective wave of the bigger 5th wave. Confused? Take a look at the chart below.

First downside target happens to be 1.5200 and then 1.4700. After this corrective wave, the final thrust i.e. the 5th of the bigger 5th may lead all the way to 1.7080. I think all this is possible, infact probable, before the US elections later this year.

Further...

Fundamentally, anticipations of a squeezing interest rate differential between euro and dollar are creeping in the markets. Last week eurozone data revealed alerting weakness in the european economy, which might force the ECB to forget the idea of another interest rate hike. Plus crude oil, along with other commodities like wheat and soybeans, have slid in the recent weeks, easing inflationary pressures. This has also eroded the expectations of an increase in rates by the ECB. I dont think europeans will go for a rate cut either. Doing so can amplify inflationary pressures in the region.

Based on all this, i believe a sharp fall in eurusd is quite likely. But before that, the pair can rise till 5850-80 in the short-term. Take a look at the four hour chart below. A little divergence in RSI along with a bullish Gartley is quite evident.

I hope the analysis proves useful.

Happy tradin'