Looks as though MIG research also predicts a bounce right now in cable as opposed to continued downsided pressure. Certainly the figures just released are in support of that.

__________________

LIVE Premium NewsFeed Created By Professionally Trained Traders FREE To You...

- link: Feel compelled? Click here for the newsfeed and sign up to the ezine for announcements.

I started with my research on January 2nd, 2008 and I must add, I used Activ charts to determine how many times the CCi-5 overheated and documented the number of times when the price kept on going in the original direction.

Here is what I found:

JAN 2008 = 25 OVERHEATS with 4 (16%) continuing.

FEB = 26 with 7 continuing (27%)

MARCH = 28 with 10 continuing (36%)

APRIL = 27 with 9 continuing (34%)

MAY = 24 with 9 continuing (38% )

JUNE = 24 with 10 continuing (42% )

JULY = 22 with 9 continuing ( 41% )


Overall, 33% trades continued to run. This is significant information!!

The main reason for me wanting to know this information, is to see when I can exit a trade unconditionally, but with this data available it seems that only in 66% of the time, we can actually exit on an overheating H1-candle.

More data regarding the trades that continued to run follows here:

JAN 2008 = 5 OVERHEATS with an average of -3 pips retrace before the price continued but with a maximum of -9.

FEB = 7 OVERHEATS with an average of -11 pips retrace before the price continued but with a maximum of -39.

MARCH = 6 OVERHEATS with an average of -12 pips retrace before the price continued but with a maximum of -25.

APRIL = 9 OVERHEATS with an average of -11 pips retrace before the price continued but with a maximum of -23.

MAY = 9 OVERHEATS with an average of -9 pips retrace before the price continued but with a maximum of -20.

JUNE = 10 OVERHEATS with an average of -9 pips retrace before the price continued but with a maximum of -33.

JULY = 9 OVERHEATS with an average of -6 pips retrace before the price continued but with a maximum of -14.

THIS GIVES AN OVERALL OF -9 PIPS ON EVERY OVERHEATED SITUATION (±SPREAD), SUGGESTING THAT WE SHOULD NOT JUST EXIT A TRADE WHEN THE H1 OVERHEATS.

On the other hand, 66% of the time it would warrant closing the trade, but I suggest it needs close scrutiny at the time. After the candle has closed, allow yourself an average of -9 pips (±spread + 1) and if you are taken out, the chances are that the direction will change to either sideways or a complete reversal depending on what time of the day it is.

After finishing the H4 research, I suggest that we look at the H4 situation when the H1 overheats and considering at what time of the H4 candle that is, we may stay in the trade and exit closer to the close of the H4 candle. Just remember there are other very important issues at stake as well, such as Fibs; Pivots, etc.

Results of the H4 TF are 3 Posts down.

Best wishes.

__________________
"Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing" The Tao of Warren Buffett.

"Avoiding mistakes, makes people STUPID and having to be RIGHT, makes you OBSOLETE." Robert Kiyosaki.

I wanted to share my H8 chart because it gave me the direction before and after the news due to the significant break of the EMA. I made the most of the short and noticed the approaching Entrex. MS2 seemed to meet Entrex on my H1 chart which gave good target and exit @ 1.8600. Can we learn more about the Entrex (how it works and how it is traded as a strategy on it's own?)

I found the H8 below was a good clue because the direction was short on H1 but overheated CCI, also CCI5 on H4 overheated to -165 but there was more than 100 mins on the clock and price had broken crucial EMAs again...

Attached Images

h8-short.gif (30.5 KB, 413 views)

__________________

LIVE Premium NewsFeed Created By Professionally Trained Traders FREE To You...

- link: Feel compelled? Click here for the newsfeed and sign up to the ezine for announcements.

Excellent trade, Suk. I also exited on 1.8600 for the very same reasons.

Good to see you back or are you still in Beijing?

Great weekend.

__________________
"Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing" The Tao of Warren Buffett.

"Avoiding mistakes, makes people STUPID and having to be RIGHT, makes you OBSOLETE." Robert Kiyosaki.

I started with my research on January 2nd, 2008 using Activ charts to determine how many times the CCi-5 overheated and documented the number of times when the price kept on going in the original direction.

Here is what I found:

JAN 2008 = 7 OVERHEATS with 2 (29%) continuing.

FEB = 10 with 3 continuing (33%)

MARCH = 3 with NONE continuing

APRIL = 14 with 6 continuing (43%)

MAY = 8 with 4 continuing (50% )

JUNE = 9 with 5 continuing (56% )

JULY = 15 with 3 continuing ( 20% )


Overall, 35% trades continued to run, but we have a "scew" in the sense that March had no "overheating" situations. It seems as if ±50% of the trades tend to continue to run, even if it is just for one more candle. This is significant information!!

More data regarding the trades that continued to run follows here:

JAN 2008 = 2 OVERHEATS with an average of -14 pips retrace before the price continued but with a maximum of -18.

FEB = 4 OVERHEATS with an average of -14 pips retrace before the price continued but with a maximum of -40.

MARCH = NO OVERHEATS AT ALL.

APRIL = 6 OVERHEATS with an average of -20 pips retrace before the price continued but with a maximum of -29.

MAY = 4 OVERHEATS with an average of -8 pips retrace before the price continued but with a maximum of -15.

JUNE = 5 OVERHEATS with an average of -25 pips retrace before the price continued but with a maximum of -25.

JULY = 3 OVERHEATS with an average of -4 pips retrace before the price continued but with a maximum of -9.

THIS GIVES AN OVERALL OF -4 PIPS ON EVERY OVERHEATED SITUATION (±SPREAD), SUGGESTING THAT WE SHOULD NOT JUST EXIT A TRADE WHEN THE H4 OVERHEATS. (Max @ -40*)

Best wishes.

__________________
"Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing" The Tao of Warren Buffett.

"Avoiding mistakes, makes people STUPID and having to be RIGHT, makes you OBSOLETE." Robert Kiyosaki.

How many pips(minimum) is considered as a continuation?

__________________

LIVE Premium NewsFeed Created By Professionally Trained Traders FREE To You...

- link: Feel compelled? Click here for the newsfeed and sign up to the ezine for announcements.

Hi,

Can you help? Where I can find indicator RSI-3PER ???? May be you know algorithm of this?!!! I'm very need!

Hi Suk,

Difficult to say as it varies by month, but on average I would say that we take the average on H1 which is -9 pips and add to that spread ±1. So at worst it will be -15 pips for those still having a 5 pip spread on GBP/USD. I still like the idea of using the 8-EMA for the same reason, but now that I have this data, I will be looking at what happen at the moment of this happening.

On a different note, was the Closing ceremony not unbelievable last night?

Good to have you back.

__________________
"Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing" The Tao of Warren Buffett.

"Avoiding mistakes, makes people STUPID and having to be RIGHT, makes you OBSOLETE." Robert Kiyosaki.

Hi Jerri, let me give you the latest one and just in case if it does not work (I am sure it will though), let me know please. You did not say which TF you require, but feel free to change it.

Best wishes.

Attached Files

	RSI-3PER_TEST.mq4 (5.7 KB, 52 views)
	RSI-H1.mq4 (5.8 KB, 49 views)

__________________
"Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing" The Tao of Warren Buffett.

"Avoiding mistakes, makes people STUPID and having to be RIGHT, makes you OBSOLETE." Robert Kiyosaki.

ValeoFX, I did not see the closing ceremony, alas. Will look it up on youtube though. Great to trade over here - 3PM is start of UK session.

__________________

LIVE Premium NewsFeed Created By Professionally Trained Traders FREE To You...

- link: Feel compelled? Click here for the newsfeed and sign up to the ezine for announcements.