Much like the WEEKLY-chart above, the Daily needs some attention as well:

Firstly, notice 21 July marked with vertical line how the price rallied back from the previous day's short. The CCI-5 did NOT break the zero-line and we have a perfect ZLR.

28th July same thing happened, but notice how the RSis behaved - they were making LOWER HIGHs (marked with Blue-triangles)

It was no easy ride, but then FX is no easy ride!! BUT the overall TREND was SHORT.

This morning the price has reached the 127% Fib level which in itself is significant. I will ask Alan Oliver who is an expert in Fibonacci, what his take is on this picture and with his permission, post his reply.

Now the picture is pretty exhausted and I for one am keen to learn how people like Richard Morrish (see my post above) can forecast the next targets.

I just follow my charts, but it would be nice if I "knew" where I may end up.

Best wishes.

Attached Images

daily 8 aug 2008.gif (33.1 KB, 395 views)

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"Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing" The Tao of Warren Buffett.

"Avoiding mistakes, makes people STUPID and having to be RIGHT, makes you OBSOLETE." Robert Kiyosaki.

Hi yaahhh gentlemens

It's time for me to take some hollidays. I go 4 weeks in Miami.

From time to time i will read the forum.

Have all great time and much success

CHEERS,
Albert

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Picasso is the best !

Wishing you and your family a wonderful trip, Joe. We will miss you, but we understand that you need a break. Enjoy.

Best wishes.

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"Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing" The Tao of Warren Buffett.

"Avoiding mistakes, makes people STUPID and having to be RIGHT, makes you OBSOLETE." Robert Kiyosaki.

My first reaction this morning was one of bitter disappointment and therefore I did not trade the first entry @ 08h50. I wanted the trade to first break the Low it made @ 05h30 and it did just that @ 09h25.

I waited for the retrace and entered when the Diamond showed itself @ 10h15. I closed my trade on the Doji @ 12h00 (+66 pips), not bad in an exhausted market, I guess.

Why did I not wait for the Low to be broken again? It was already taken out and all I needed was for the direction to change as it did not break the Pivot NOR the 60-EMA. It was a slow trade and when the price overheated the CCi-5 @ 11h25, one could have been forgiven for closing the trade, but then you would not have followed the 8-EMA exit rule.

Best wishes.

Attached Images

this morning's entry.gif (33.5 KB, 387 views)

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"Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing" The Tao of Warren Buffett.

"Avoiding mistakes, makes people STUPID and having to be RIGHT, makes you OBSOLETE." Robert Kiyosaki.

Valeo - what is the diamond that you refer to? I did not get that in the download. Could you post that?
Thank you

The "Diamond" is in a "Beta"-testing phase for people that trade this method successfully. It has therefore not been posted YET.

Trust you understand.

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"Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing" The Tao of Warren Buffett.

"Avoiding mistakes, makes people STUPID and having to be RIGHT, makes you OBSOLETE." Robert Kiyosaki.

Here is just a plain WEEKLY chart showing you where I took the Fib-levels from and also to see where the 50% Support @ 1.9203 in Magenta, comes from.

The Red Fib-lines are the retracing leg and here the price went down to nearly 150%.

The Blue Fib-lines are just the current ACTIVE leg to see if we can determine a possible area of retrace to and @ 23,6% @ 1.9384 (+137 pips) before it may come down to 1.8907. Fascinating stuff, isn't it?

Best wishes for a successful August.

Attached Images

weekly 8 aug 2008 #4.gif (50.3 KB, 344 views)

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"Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing" The Tao of Warren Buffett.

"Avoiding mistakes, makes people STUPID and having to be RIGHT, makes you OBSOLETE." Robert Kiyosaki.

This is just to let you see the close-up version of the previous chart. It makes for better understanding, especially the "fore casting" Blue fibs with a retracement suggestion to 23,6% @ 1.9384.

Attached Images

weekly 8 aug 2008 #6.gif (24.9 KB, 340 views)

__________________
"Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing" The Tao of Warren Buffett.

"Avoiding mistakes, makes people STUPID and having to be RIGHT, makes you OBSOLETE." Robert Kiyosaki.

And finally, the DAILY chart. It needs no further explanation; just to see that the price closed on the 50% Fib-retrace with RSis totally overheated and yet the CCi-5 only @ -148.41%

Best wishes.

Attached Images

daily 8 aug 2008.gif (33.0 KB, 348 views)

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"Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing" The Tao of Warren Buffett.

"Avoiding mistakes, makes people STUPID and having to be RIGHT, makes you OBSOLETE." Robert Kiyosaki.

I have looked back on the M5 TF over the last 4 months as to how many times the CCi-5 overheated and documented the number of times when the price kept on going in the original direction as I have done before but during a different time period. I though to use April - July period as we usually have very different trading conditions and here is what I found:

APRIL = 296 OVERHEATS with 13 (4,4%) continuing.

MAY = 257 with 4 continuing (1,55%)

JUNE = 285 with 10 continuing (3,5%)

JULY = 309 with 29 continuing (9,4%)

Overall, only 4,9% trades continued to run but the maximum number was as high as 9,4% which is in line with my previous research.

Therefore, IF we obey the CCi-5 overheating, we can "safely" deduct from that, that on average ±95% of the time we will be CORRECT!! Hence me trading the CCi-5/15 and will NEVER trade without it again.

I will add the August figures to this Post by month end.

Most of the time one can actually trade the trades that carry on running in the overheating direction, but what you need to be aware of is the fact that it mostly retraces back to your entry price within 2 - 3 candles (so don't move the stops too quickly).

Also, wait for the candle after the overheated candle to decide whether it will continue to run or not:.............if the price is Lower / Higher than the overheated candle, the chances are that it will continue to run. Look at the H1 chart for confirmation.

Hope this will help you to see the value of the CCi-5 in my way of trading.

Best wishes.

__________________
"Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing" The Tao of Warren Buffett.

"Avoiding mistakes, makes people STUPID and having to be RIGHT, makes you OBSOLETE." Robert Kiyosaki.