Notice the EMAs here are:

25-EMA @ AQUA

40-EMA @ MAGENTA

100-EMA @ RED.

Also, the Solid Yellow lines are Fibs from Monthly chart and notice how the price touched the -23,6% Fib at the end of week 28 October 2007, before continuing up to 2.1160 which is a new Hi. It then retraced to close BELOW the -23,6% level @ 2.0822 and the RSi-2 / 4 crossed and the Short was on. (this is why the RSi-s are so important!!

Interestingly enough the price did not bounce on the active leg retracement which is shown in DodgerBlue-broken lines, but in stead it bounced off the previous Hi @ 1.9511 @ 06-01-2008 and had quite a time to (very briefly) drop through that support, making a Lo. of 1.9337. (BTW, this is the level that everyone is talking about that needs to be taken out before plummeting to 1.8907 and 1.8425 which is the -50% Fib-level).

Having said that, I cannot see that happening shortly, but then who am I a mere mortal to try and forecast where this market is heading.

Should the price reach 2.0033 which is the 50% retrace of the current move @ 2.0248 it may bounce there for a desend to 1.8907 (-23,6% Fib).

What are the chances of it reaching the 50% retracement level just looking at my charts? Personally I think pretty good in a round about way judging from the RSi readings. What "concerns" me though is the "fast moving CCi-5" amd we may possibly not see that scenario unfolding - however, this is a WEEKLY chart and it may be very possible too. KEEP YOUR EYES ON THE CCi-5 FOR THIS WEEK TO COME.

One thing I would like you to study though is the price movement since 23rd March 2008 when the price were trying to break the 25 and 40-EMAs. Also, notice how the price struggled to break the 38% Fib in DodgerBlue and when it did, bounced off the Monthly Fib @ 1.9511 briefly touching the previous Lo. created on 17th February 2008.

I saw divergence on the 4th of May and 8th of June on the RSi-4 in the middle window - the DodgerBlue TL and it worked very well. Priceless information to me.

This may be "unnecessary" information to some, but I find that by looking at the weekly chart on a Daily basis (yes that is right, Daily), it gives me perspective on a wider plain.

Any additional information gleened from this chart by those of you that have been trading for much longer than I have, will be deeply appreciated.

Best wishes for July 2008; may the pips keep on rolling into your pockets.

Attached Images

weekly #2.gif (30.0 KB, 362 views)

__________________
"Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing" The Tao of Warren Buffett.

"Avoiding mistakes, makes people STUPID and having to be RIGHT, makes you OBSOLETE." Robert Kiyosaki.

After a roller-coaster day of trading the 3rd trade presented itself around 16h10 this afternoon according to my charts.

Note that the RSi-H4 set-up in window #1, changed first when the M5 set-up changed and that is a legitimate entry. Price @ 1.9938 .

Price made a Lo. near the MS1 Piovt level @ 1.9878 and Gann level @ 1.9885 for ± 50 pips.

Best wishes for serious pips this week in spite of Friday being an NFP-day and the summer holidays.

Attached Images

this afternoon's entry m5.gif (31.0 KB, 300 views)

__________________
"Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing" The Tao of Warren Buffett.

"Avoiding mistakes, makes people STUPID and having to be RIGHT, makes you OBSOLETE." Robert Kiyosaki.

If you were in front of your screens @ 07h25, that entry was valid except that the CCi-5 "overheated" and retraced for a better entry when the signal came again @ 07h40. The price now @ 1.9905.

However, I wait for the 08h00 candle to close on H1 to assess the situation from a wider perspective and entered @ 1.9926 for an easyrun up to +50 pips.

Best wishes and good trading.

Attached Images

this morning's entry.gif (31.5 KB, 280 views)

__________________
"Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing" The Tao of Warren Buffett.

"Avoiding mistakes, makes people STUPID and having to be RIGHT, makes you OBSOLETE." Robert Kiyosaki.

Purely based on the H1-chart's ZLR on CCI.

Entry @ 08h05 Long @ 1.9945 for an easy 20 pips, but I was greedy and got stopped out +10.

H1 CCi-5 overheated on closing and we should have shorted immediately @ 1.9961. This is a very typical situation and should be taken advantage of. The price would have taken you to -11 pips, but the reward is great.

Let me warn you, this is NOT for Newbies.

Best wishes for today (and always).

Attached Images

this morning's entry.gif (32.4 KB, 255 views)

__________________
"Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing" The Tao of Warren Buffett.

"Avoiding mistakes, makes people STUPID and having to be RIGHT, makes you OBSOLETE." Robert Kiyosaki.

Note the 2 DodgerBlue triangles pointing out the ZLR on the CCi and the middle window where the RSi-2 "bounced off" the RSi-4.

In the meantime the H4 TF was showing that everything was still SHORT.

Long on for ±20 pips (if you were not greedy) and then immediately SHORT from ±1.9961 for ±50 pips.

Good trading.

Attached Images

h1- entry july2.gif (31.2 KB, 252 views)

__________________
"Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing" The Tao of Warren Buffett.

"Avoiding mistakes, makes people STUPID and having to be RIGHT, makes you OBSOLETE." Robert Kiyosaki.

Good morning Valeo

Just wanted to let you know that I study every post you make on this excellent thread and really appreciate your efforts.

I will post my own trades here for yours and other members feedback.

Thanks again.

Best regards
Shaun

Would LOVE to see them please, Shaun.

Best wishes.

__________________
"Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing" The Tao of Warren Buffett.

"Avoiding mistakes, makes people STUPID and having to be RIGHT, makes you OBSOLETE." Robert Kiyosaki.

Judging from the overheating H4 CCi-5 and the H1 bouncing at MS2, the trade
is exhausted and therefore (in spite of the fact that the price still has not closed ABOVE the 8-EMA on M5, I have closed my trade with a profit of +65 pips.

I have a Gann-line on 1.9847 and more often than not, the price ignores the Pivot-levels and heads for the nearest Gann-level. My exit may have been premature.

Having said that, we should have been wide awake and entered at the close of the H1-08h00 candle as mentioned above here.

Better entry next time.

Attached Images

this morning's exit.gif (33.6 KB, 247 views)

__________________
"Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing" The Tao of Warren Buffett.

"Avoiding mistakes, makes people STUPID and having to be RIGHT, makes you OBSOLETE." Robert Kiyosaki.

Good morning Valeo

I will post some setups with my views and ask that you kindly give feedback.

Here is the first of today.... as we know Friday was a holiday in the USA and the market was rangebound and erratic. It was to be expected that the Asian session would see some movement overnight and cable fell some 70 pips. Clearly the market was short at the open of the European session this morning as per H4 chart. I am always wary when the market has moved so much before the open of new session but be that as it may.... here is the first trade pic... it is the cable 5 min chart, entry short:

Thanks.

Attached Images

070708 cable m5 1st trade web.jpg (98.4 KB, 191 views)

Hi Valeo

You have always stated that the 1 hour chart is our most important went making trading decisions and I continue to work at understanding why and how to take advantage of that.

Here is an observation made regarding the H1 CCI-5. The chart below is the 1 hour chart.

I would appreciate your feedback please.

Thanks
Shaun

Attached Images

h1 bear zone web.jpg (97.8 KB, 178 views)