It was NOT an easy ride this morning, unlike the rest of the week. However, if you kept an eye on the H1-chart, you would have noticed that the price never went below the 20-EMA (Magenta). So, we were waiting for another extension UP and breaking the Pivot MR1 for at least 30 pips and if you are already au fait with how I trade it, 40 pips.

Best wishes.

Attached Images

today's entry h1.gif (29.9 KB, 386 views)

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"Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing" The Tao of Warren Buffett.

"Avoiding mistakes, makes people STUPID and having to be RIGHT, makes you OBSOLETE." Robert Kiyosaki.

Trust you all had a great weekend! Philipe and Casey won and my rugby teams did not do so badly either, so we should all be ready for this week.

However, the M5-TF was a real pain in the neck this morning and kept me out of the trade.

First herewith is the M5 chart with overheating CCis a plenty. When the entry presented itself @ 08h05, I felt that the spike (tail if you wish) was too long and that it was not breaking the previous Low and stayed out. What I should have done was to look at the fact that M5, M15 and H1 RSi-set-ups were signalling the short and we should have gone short right there and then.

The last "Diamond" that you see to the right of the screen-print should have been the entry IF I was not such a chicken-hearted twit. Check the CCi-5 overshoot and reverse.

Also, since opening we know that the trade was short due to the fact that the price remained under the 5-EMA; a sure sign that we could enter at a convenient opportunity. I never found that opportunity and maybe this is where I am not experienced enough, but having said that, look at my H1-chart just after this post.

But that is how we learn and in this instance, I was a slow learner.

On the next post I will give you my suggested entry based on the H1 and I would like to hear from you whether you think this is a feasable solution to this problem we encountered this morning.

Attached Images

this morning's entry.gif (34.3 KB, 340 views)

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"Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing" The Tao of Warren Buffett.

"Avoiding mistakes, makes people STUPID and having to be RIGHT, makes you OBSOLETE." Robert Kiyosaki.

So here we are with the H1-chart set-up @ 08h00.

Notice that the trade was short from the 04h00 candle onwards, but the real entry would have been at the close of the 06h00 candle when the price broke through the MS1-Pivot. Nevertheless, I trade from 08h00 / 09h00 when London come online and this is where the problem came in for me.

At 08h00 the price closed on a Gann-level and within 8 pips of the next S1-Pivot and therefore I was going to wait for that Pivot level to be broken. It took an hour to NOT break that Pivot level and ended in a Graveyard Doji (Large Aqua-triangle pointing at Doji) which in itself is bad news (or so they say). The rest is history, sadly.

Here is what I have noticed though (sadly to admit in hindsight, but now a major research project for myself tonight) starting with the 04h00 candle:-

Look at the Volume on that candle and each and everyone after that until 08h00 candle and this is waht you find:

1. 04h00 candle @ 145 contracts
2. 05h00 @ 115 contracts
3. 06h00 @ 81 contracts
4. 07h00 @ 310 contracts
5. 08h00 @ 544 contracts and THAT was the Doji!!!!

So, what could we have learned from this?

At 08h00 opening there were 310 contracts in the previous candle and the present one closes @ 544 contracts - a clear indication that this short is being supported and we should have entered at the close of the 09h05 candle with a price of 1.9712 and we could have made ourselves at least 70 pips or more.

I will research similar entries and report back once I have a statistically significant number of entries based on VOLUME such as this morning.

Your views are much sought this morning please.

Best wishes for a great week ahead.

Attached Images

h1- entry june 23.gif (31.0 KB, 338 views)

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"Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing" The Tao of Warren Buffett.

"Avoiding mistakes, makes people STUPID and having to be RIGHT, makes you OBSOLETE." Robert Kiyosaki.

It is once again a difficult morning for entries and again I want to reiterate that under these conditions we have to look at the H1-chart first and foremost - remember we trade off the H1-TF.

The first directional change confirmed by the H1-chart was @ the close of the 05h00 candle. NOTICE the bounce off the RSi-4 on the RSi-H4 window (marked with an Aqua-arrow).

The market is slow, so do not expect too many pips and keep your eyes on the H4.

At 08h00 both H4 and H1 signalled for a Long @ 1.9660 for at least 20 - 25 pips, but it was painfully slow.

There was no short in spite of some overheating M5-candles. Patience is in the order of the day. If we do not get a decent trade today, there will always be another one tomorrow and yesterday was a bonus.

Best wishes.

Attached Images

h1- entry june 24.gif (31.0 KB, 299 views)

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"Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing" The Tao of Warren Buffett.

"Avoiding mistakes, makes people STUPID and having to be RIGHT, makes you OBSOLETE." Robert Kiyosaki.

Again, the market is teaching us "students" how to be sharper than sharp.

Here is an expanded view of my H1-chart to show you 2 identical SHORT trade-entries. One was on the 23rd and was responsible for me looking more eriously at the "volume" when in doubt. What I DO KNOW is however to OBEY the crossing of the RSi-setup and this morning was NO exception.

The only difference is that this morning the price has not broken the 25-EMA yet, but check the RSis. The direction was SHORT since 07h00!!

The 08h00 candle immediately overheated and the price climbed back up to break the 25-EMA @ 11h00. It retraced a little from a Hi of 707 to close @ 1.9689 + spread for an entry Long @ 1.9692 (the price retraced by 10 pips but by using the M5-entry, I actually managed to get in @ 1.9695 @ 11h35 with a retrace of -8 against me.

I apologise for taking up so much screen this morning, but when you see these entries (marked with large AQUA-triangles, you will forgive me.

Best wishes.

Attached Images

h1- entry june 25.gif (76.1 KB, 261 views)

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"Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing" The Tao of Warren Buffett.

"Avoiding mistakes, makes people STUPID and having to be RIGHT, makes you OBSOLETE." Robert Kiyosaki.

Although I see divergence on the higher TFs for a further Long, the trade at first was SHORT due to the position of the H1 chart since midnight. What is important to note is the difference between price and the Pivot this morning. (-37 pips, which makes for a good trade).

Also, look at where the price is in relation to the 25-EMA on the H1-chart and wait for the candle to close. (I also have a Gann level @ 1.9847 which coincides very nicely with the Pivot @ 1.9832) Chances are that the price will close ABOVE the 25-EMA with an overhjeating CCi-5; all good indications that the price may continue to go Long. (Just my opinion and NOT written in stone )

Here is the Entry on the short this morning followed by the Exit.

Wishing you well.

Attached Images

this morning's entry.gif (31.5 KB, 229 views)

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"Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing" The Tao of Warren Buffett.

"Avoiding mistakes, makes people STUPID and having to be RIGHT, makes you OBSOLETE." Robert Kiyosaki.

I have highlited the area where we should have been very "awake" as to possible exits due to the aforementioned confluences of the Pivot; EMA and overheating CCi-5 on H1 chart.

Hope this exit makes sense to you.

Best wishes.

Attached Images

this morning's exit.gif (77.7 KB, 229 views)

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"Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing" The Tao of Warren Buffett.

"Avoiding mistakes, makes people STUPID and having to be RIGHT, makes you OBSOLETE." Robert Kiyosaki.

ValeoFX I have to admit you've been going very fast with the posts...I will travel again on July 10 so I will take a print out of all the notes so far...I surpassed my psychological barrier of 100% of my account (profit) and am now well ahead of that marker.

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LIVE Tradedesk thoughts. LIVE forex trader news commentary. suk1000k's FOREX LESSONS that will make you profitable trader, a relationship with London Forex Broadsheet and much more... PRIVATEFXCLUB.com

Good morning Suk,

First of all my heartiest congratulations for achieving your goal. Long may we be successful in exceeding our goals.

Persoannly I could not beleive my own eyes when I completed my sp[read sheet last night!! Way, way above last year June and I thank the Lord for opening my eyes.

Best wishes.

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"Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing" The Tao of Warren Buffett.

"Avoiding mistakes, makes people STUPID and having to be RIGHT, makes you OBSOLETE." Robert Kiyosaki.

I am attaching the weekly chart in 2 different formats: 1. The overall view so that you can get an idea of where we are in relation to the total picture and then a more detailed (read enlarged) version of the same chart to show you how the WEEKLY behaved.

I must add that this chart has brought a new dimension to my trading.

In the first (overall picture), look at where the RSis overheated. The Magenta caps are for the RSi-4 overheating and the Green caps RSi-2. The White caps are CCi-5 and that is always standard - when you see White caps on top of a candle, it is the CCi-5.

Enough said for the overall picture.

See next picture for detailed information, please.

Attached Images

weekly #3.gif (74.0 KB, 185 views)

__________________
"Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing" The Tao of Warren Buffett.

"Avoiding mistakes, makes people STUPID and having to be RIGHT, makes you OBSOLETE." Robert Kiyosaki.