Cable trades based on statistical probability

mickD · #1 (**permalink**) 10-03-2007, 04:41 AM

Just want to throw this open for discussion. Maybe it's been done before but maybe someone can add something to it.

I've been reading the "Vegas wealth builder II" document and, ignoring his trading system, just focussing on the way he breaks down data on GBP/USD starting on page 5.

The interesting stuff is on page 22. Read if you're interested then continue reading this...

...OK? Now if we assume from the data that when the price goes off by say 40 pips from the open (2100 GMT), the bigger chance is it continues in that direction instead of coming back to the opening price. Couple that with having a bigger t/p than s/l and the potential is there to see.

So we take the open price, add and subtract 40 (my figure), straddling the open in effect, set the s/l at 40 (back at the open price) and let the t/p go to the end of day OR a t/l of, say, 80. We can automate this using the Amazing EA.

I've attached the files we need to get started below. Hope some people can jump in with comments and also tell me if this has done and shown to fail before. I like it because it's using price action and solid stats. Appeals to me.

(the .set file is for a GMT broker - you'll have to change the "21" if your broker time is different).

Ronyn · #2 (**permalink**) 10-03-2007, 07:08 AM

Hey mate, I've been considering the same strategy myself. I just haven't been able to free the time to look into it in detail yet. The method of trading based on stats also appeals to me for some reason. I'd really like to analyze the stats for other pairs as well.

I'll try to kickstart my brain and see if i can bring you some feedback in the near future..

Happy trading

sjerar · #3 (**permalink**) 10-03-2007, 08:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mickD

Just want to throw this open for discussion. Maybe it's been done before but maybe someone can add something to it.

...OK? Now if we assume from the data that when the price goes off by say 40 pips from the open (2100 GMT), the bigger chance is it continues in that direction instead of coming back to the opening price. Couple that with having a bigger t/p than s/l and the potential is there to see.

So we take the open price, add and subtract 40 (my figure), straddling the open in effect, set the s/l at 40 (back at the open price) and let the t/p go to the end of day OR a t/l of, say, 80. We can automate this using the Amazing EA.

I have been trying this already with different SL and TP and it's not profitable (on GBP/USD) because to many times both SL's are executed.

prasxz · #4 (**permalink**) 10-03-2007, 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mickD

Just want to throw this open for discussion. Maybe it's been done before but maybe someone can add something to it.

I've been reading the "Vegas wealth builder II" document and, ignoring his trading system, just focussing on the way he breaks down data on GBP/USD starting on page 5.

The interesting stuff is on page 22. Read if you're interested then continue reading this...

...OK? Now if we assume from the data that when the price goes off by say 40 pips from the open (2100 GMT), the bigger chance is it continues in that direction instead of coming back to the opening price. Couple that with having a bigger t/p than s/l and the potential is there to see.

So we take the open price, add and subtract 40 (my figure), straddling the open in effect, set the s/l at 40 (back at the open price) and let the t/p go to the end of day OR a t/l of, say, 80. We can automate this using the Amazing EA.

I've attached the files we need to get started below. Hope some people can jump in with comments and also tell me if this has done and shown to fail before. I like it because it's using price action and solid stats. Appeals to me.

(the .set file is for a GMT broker - you'll have to change the "21" if your broker time is different).

How about equity performance of this EA in a week ?

===================
Forex Indicators Collection

mickD · #5 (**permalink**) 10-03-2007, 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sjerar

I have been trying this already with different SL and TP and it's not profitable (on GBP/USD) because to many times both SL's are executed.

Thanks for sharing. How long have you been trying it? Perhaps an OCO order would be better to stop multiple s/l being hit.

mickD · #6 (**permalink**) 10-03-2007, 12:22 PM

[quote=prasxz;155001]How about equity performance of this EA in a week ?

I'll tell you in a week! Really, just starting to look into this and hoping for some ideas.

mickD · #7 (**permalink**) 10-04-2007, 04:18 AM

Can someone make a simple indicator for backtesting purposes?

Just draws a line at the open of the 21000 candle and two lines +/- 40 pips away and repeats it for x number of days. Maybe with user inputs of candle time & pips away.

Cheers

sjerar · #8 (**permalink**) 10-08-2007, 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mickD

Thanks for sharing. How long have you been trying it? Perhaps an OCO order would be better to stop multiple s/l being hit.

I have forward testing this abou 3 month's.

Tried OCO orders also, no better results neither.

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