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Old 08-29-2007, 11:21 PM
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Lightbulb simple scalping with fibonacci retracement.

this is a method i've been testing forward for about 3 month. so far very high success rate.

backtesting shows high success rate, but i have to admit this is very aggressive, and i dont recommend it to everyone.

lot of ppl asked for this earlier. so i will show you its really not safe method, and you have to have nerves of steel if you were doing this with big lots and a live account.


Use H1 charts.

ENTRY: drawing fibonacci retracement on a downtrend. make sure its strong.
wait for the first bullish candle. then draw!

place pending order @ 50 %. I've experimented with other levels, but 50% yielded the highest and most reliable return on backtesting.

EXIT: TP of no more than 5 ~6 pips.

Update: Use the Stochastic 15,3,3 and a 5,3,3. To be on the look out for major reversals. to be safe side, say your long, but the stoch is moving down past the 80 level. then a good idea to take profit and get out.

Few lessons I learned: GET OUT when its forming channels. its goign to reverse on you.

I am having trouble with MM. this is a major area of trouble.

so far backtested with 5 lots, 10k account. 200% return in 1 month.

Sniping the Market...really really fast over and over.

Last edited by jjk2; 09-03-2007 at 06:41 PM.
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Old 09-01-2007, 07:38 AM
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Where is the indicators, can we share... I like to scalp..scalp is just like a game for me...he..he...where we hit and run...
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Old 09-01-2007, 11:42 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jjk2 View Post
5 lots, 10k account. 200% return in 1 month.
One trade in the wrong way will wipe out half of your account. At least. In the worst case you'll get a margin call, in the best case you'll be able to close it with smaller than 50% loss.
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Old 09-02-2007, 12:47 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shinigami View Post
One trade in the wrong way will wipe out half of your account. At least. In the worst case you'll get a margin call, in the best case you'll be able to close it with smaller than 50% loss.
yes. its very possible that the 50% level is on a resistance or support and market can bounce and move against you. again, a rule should be enforced here, such as the amount of time it takes to reach profit. ex. if its taking too long for the tp to occur, then good idea to get out as i find this is warning that prices are about go the other way.

also, important to use very small lots. even if the market reverses, it usually reverts back to the 0.5 level fibonacci on backtesting a good 80% of the time. however, i personally wouldn't count on this, as your account can be well wiped. so get out when its taking too long to reach profit, and use sensible lots.


i'm looking for more suggestions.

btw, theres no indicator for this. its just an idea i've been fooling around with for a while.

perhaps using 1H or even longer time frames should reduce some risk.
however, i've backtested on 1M,5M. its works, but again i mention this system is very aggressive.

another suggestion is zoom out on a 5M or 1M, to see the overall picture. this also helped out a lot.
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Old 09-02-2007, 12:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nicesurf View Post
Where is the indicators, can we share... I like to scalp..scalp is just like a game for me...he..he...where we hit and run...
yes this is exactly hit and run. except its success lies where you hit and run the same price over and over as market consolidates.

perhaps with use of other inidcators to warn of coming price reversalls could be useful.
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Old 09-02-2007, 12:55 AM
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some backtesting. as you can see in the 2nd and 3rd pic, using stop losses don't really work.
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Old 09-03-2007, 06:56 PM
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also read Spud's MTF FIB Breakout System - Page 3

Spud's MTF stoch with FIB breakout.

i am using the 100 and 0 levels, and its working out great. also, the stoch is very useful for identifying dangers and pulling you out of major killers.
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Old 09-23-2007, 07:27 PM
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If you use the Zup indicator, you can turn on the Fibo drawings by setting ExtFiboDinamic parameter to true.
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