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  #11 (permalink)  
Old 06-23-2007, 09:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyclesurfer View Post
He or she asked about the danger of running into a trend, which is esentially what you are asking about.

You can use indicators of course to minimize risk, but that takes up time that I don't have. Indicators are very finicky anyway.
He. Hedging stuff always takes me a while to figure out because of all the math involved.

So I assume you trade this live, and are doing reasonably well? What does your risk profile look like and how much (%) do you typically return on an average day of trading? Also, do you use any lot scaling, martingale, etc. or is it just fixed lots/linear progression?
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  #12 (permalink)  
Old 06-23-2007, 09:30 PM
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Im sorry it must be me, and I wish I could get over the hump here, but this simply doesnt make sense to me. I do understand either side can be the hole, which I showed in my example...BUT most times the currency will move in one direction for at least 5-10 pips and when it does that you are donw unless it turns around before you enter again and thats imposible to know when. Have you actually used this? Again, I am very interested but I cant see this working. Maybe someone else will explain with a long example. Thanks again for sharing
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  #13 (permalink)  
Old 06-23-2007, 09:34 PM
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To put this another way, the point is to maintain the hole at a small value so that the pocket (the total of your closed trades that snagged 1 pip each) can overcome it. So if you have -5 and 5 in the pocket you can break even...but if you have made 10 trades you can close with 5 pips. Get it?
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  #14 (permalink)  
Old 06-23-2007, 09:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scottyb159 View Post
Im sorry it must be me, and I wish I could get over the hump here, but this simply doesnt make sense to me. I do understand either side can be the hole, which I showed in my example...BUT most times the currency will move in one direction for at least 5-10 pips and when it does that you are donw unless it turns around before you enter again and thats imposible to know when. Have you actually used this? Again, I am very interested but I cant see this working. Maybe someone else will explain with a long example. Thanks again for sharing
I will post examples starting Sunday


I use this regularly. The problem in understanding comes from our societies bias against 'free energy systems'. It's not your fault. It's acually very simple.
While the currency pair may move up 5 to 10 points in surges, it also moves up and down 4 to 5 points in a tight range much of the time. That's all you need.
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  #15 (permalink)  
Old 06-23-2007, 09:45 PM
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Originally Posted by static View Post
He. Hedging stuff always takes me a while to figure out because of all the math involved.

So I assume you trade this live, and are doing reasonably well? What does your risk profile look like and how much (%) do you typically return on an average day of trading? Also, do you use any lot scaling, martingale, etc. or is it just fixed lots/linear progression?
Hey Static...yes I trade this live with good results. I use lot scaling of course, with 2 accounts. One account outputs to my bank account while the other is saved and then transfered to the first to increase output to my bank account. I use mini accounts for this method for dependable weekly income. I risk a total loss of around 20 pips a play, for a return of 5 pips. My target is 5 pips a day. Right now I bring in $100 a week per account, using 4 mini lots. (minus or plus pip cost, as the case may be) Risk reward ratio may seem bad, but losses are rare and when they come, acceptable to me. Margin is split between the two positions, so to open both 4 lot trades you need only $200 margin, plus some more for breathing room. I suggest playing with this on a demo account that allows hedging (FXCM does) to get a feel of what I'm talking about.
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Old 06-23-2007, 09:51 PM
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obviously, as lots are earned in the second account they are applied to the first to increase weekly earning output. Lot accumulation increases exponentially.
the numbers are sexier on the Real account.
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  #17 (permalink)  
Old 06-23-2007, 09:54 PM
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thanks, sorry I just cant get it> I look forward to seeing you explain it with trades. Maybe you are right that in shirt term you egt enough opportunitiesof moving back and forth to make money and put enough in pocket, I just need to see it. Again thanks for trying to explain your method.
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  #18 (permalink)  
Old 06-23-2007, 10:12 PM
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Originally Posted by scottyb159 View Post
thanks, sorry I just cant get it> I look forward to seeing you explain it with trades. Maybe you are right that in shirt term you egt enough opportunitiesof moving back and forth to make money and put enough in pocket, I just need to see it. Again thanks for trying to explain your method.
No problem! I must admit I had second thoughts after posting about it, but what the hell. I still may delete the whole thing later, I don't know yet. Anyway....the very very short term is what we are dealing with here. If you watch a 1 min chart with RSI 13 attached you will see that much of the time the currency moves within that range. To easily identify a currency to NOT do this on apply the William %r with settings 100 on 1 min time frame. If the line is riding in either extreme the currency is in a strong trend, don't play it. Look for something calmer. A good entry using indicators is to open the first two trades when the RSI is at 50 (M1)

In the very short term (think next 10 minutes) the price is likely to be ranging between 5 points or so...just check any 5 min chart. Even in a down trend it will still retrace. This happens because the trend is just a pattern, and the same patterns occur on all time frames, they are holographic, or fractal. Of course your hole trade is locked into a definite number, but the chances of being able to buy back into a new trade are good. Consider that in order for one trade to close the price must move steadily in that direction over the spread and then 1 more. Usually this causes a REBOUND in the other direction just large enough to reenter the position. Get it?
Anyway...I will post results..if I decide to delete these posts ill give you guys my email.
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  #19 (permalink)  
Old 06-23-2007, 10:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scottyb159 View Post
thanks, sorry I just cant get it> I look forward to seeing you explain it with trades. Maybe you are right that in shirt term you egt enough opportunitiesof moving back and forth to make money and put enough in pocket, I just need to see it. Again thanks for trying to explain your method.
A big +1 to that, conceptually anything "non-standard" takes me a while to figure out, I do appreciate you taking the time to try and explain it. Do you usually trade the Asian session when there isn't much going on or just whenever you have time? Any favorite pairs? I'm guessing anything with low spread would do.
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  #20 (permalink)  
Old 06-23-2007, 10:31 PM
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Thumbs up Possible EA

Hi.

I have to take a break from the EA that I am working on. It is driving me nuts! I came across your system just a little bit ago. Interesting. I am going to see if I can write an EA for it. Should be doable. If I have any questions I will ask. I think I have a pretty good idea about your system. If you have any questions or suggestions, you can email or skype me. My skype handle is don_forex and email is don_forex@sbcglobal.net...

Don
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