Jubilee bar break system

hdioxyde · #1 (**permalink**) 08-03-2009, 02:32 PM

I'm gonna try to present you a new system based on trend reversal or continuation. I developped this system in metastock and used it for a while succesfully in future market.

the word Jubilee is used in turkish as the last game of star football player. So I choosed this word to represent last bar of a trend.

The code below is a metastock expert showing critical points in a swing.

The philosophy of this system is:

Trend is an overbought or oversold situation.
Reversal is a trend is the saturation / satisfaction point.
At this point we have a sudden reversal or a ranging market.
After this ranging market we have an reversal or continuation.

So I used cci to measure overbought or oversold situation, I added Williams DX to be sure we have trendiness and at last %b indicator over 100 or below 0 to be sure we are in an extreme point.

Formula for Red Jubilee Bar:

CCI(40)>100 AND
DX(12)>40 AND (not adx)
((C-BBandBot(C,10,E ,1.5))/(BBandTop(C,10,E ,1.5)-BBandBot(C,10,E ,1.5)))*100>100 (this is %B indicator)

Formula for Blue Jubilee Bar:

CCI(40)<-100 AND
DX(12)>40 AND
((C-BBandBot(C,10,E ,1.5))/(BBandTop(C,10,E ,1.5)-BBandBot(C,10,E ,1.5)))*100<0

So in anyway blue or red bar are critical point in a swing,
If we have a red bar and one of the next 1-4 bars break High of red bar, it means that trend will continue, if it breaks low it means that trend is exhausted and we have a reversal.

For the blue bar it is vice versa...

I am not sure if I can upload some graph, but I gonna try to show what I mean with some samples..

For the translation: (sorry I have already posted this graph on a turkish future trading forum)
upper box: "close below jubilee bar, short position, stop loss jubilee bar High"
middle box: "trend continues"
lower box: "close above jubilee bar high, long position, stop loss jubilee bar low"

I will be glad to hear your comments about the idea behind this system and if this indicators are succesfull to reflect this idea on the rail world.

So as I have just metastock code of this system, (I can not code in metatrader yet but I am working on it) I kindly ask if someone help to convert this in metatrader format.

Thank you in advance..

hdioxyde · #2 (**permalink**) 08-03-2009, 02:50 PM

Some optimisation and test report for USDJPY made in metastock:

1200 bar H1 test:
opt1: lenght of bollinger from 10 to 20 step 2
opt2: deviation of bollinger from 1 to 2.5 step 0.5
opt3: cci period from 30 to 50 step 5
opt4: dx period from 10 to 20 step 2

as you see there is no curve fitting and considerable amount of the combinations are profitable. Best case over 1400 pips in 1200 bars and very worst case 380 pips. the median is about 800 pips what we can expect in anyway in the future.

This test is very reliable because made in metastock.

hdioxyde · #3 (**permalink**) 08-03-2009, 03:18 PM

a recent buy setup for EURGBP...

For the exit strategy I am using a signal for other direction but it is possible to find take profit or trailing stop levels suitable...

CemFint · #4 (**permalink**) 08-03-2009, 08:14 PM

Hello,

This approach seems interesting. Would you post the indicators and your template please? CCI is everywhere but couldnt find DX and your %b indicator.

Many thanks in advance.. saglicakla kalin

phoenix · #5 (**permalink**) 08-04-2009, 07:37 AM

very interesting

what time you usually work on ?

hdioxyde · #6 (**permalink**) 08-04-2009, 07:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CemFint

Hello,

This approach seems interesting. Would you post the indicators and your template please? CCI is everywhere but couldnt find DX and your %b indicator.

Many thanks in advance.. saglicakla kalin

Which is my problem for the moment. I couldn't find DX indicator for metatrader. That is why I'm looking for some help for this system...