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this is my favorite pair in FX (GEPPY), it completed a move up very nicely, from 150.10 to 157.26.........after a very strong down move that tested a long standing up trend line.
Currently the NASDAQ has been seeing a very high level of greed, I mean, volatility on the way up.
The current move up has reached the 76.4 fib level, from there it normally retraces to the support line, which is right now around the 61.8 fib level, but depending on the level of greed in the market, it may just blast up all the way to the 100 fib level straight.
Keep in mind, this chart is for daily NASDAQ FUTURES.
As always, I include the line chart I use, and the candle charts that you all use.
For those of you with a keen eye, notice the double bottom the market tested, once in NOV 20 2008, then again in MARCH 9 2009.
After march 9 2009 greed street, I mean wall street, decided it was time to move up. I hope you bought technology stocks then......after all, it was a classical double bottom test, from technical trading text books.
Again....who knows??....right??
EBTA FOLLOWER
Last edited by EBTAFOLLOWER; 07-25-2009 at 03:56 AM.
when dealing with STOCKS you really need LINE CHARTS
Yes, I think that when dealing with stocks, you really need LINE CHARTS to draw your trend lines. This is very evident when you see the gaps in the candle charts....take a look.....
Anyway, pay attention to the dates that MICROSOFT bottomed out, compare them to the dates in the charts in the previous posting for NASDAQ FUTURES. NOV 20 2009 and MARCH 9 2009........mmmmm....
Now, today microsoft released bad earnings data, "greed street" was asking/expecting for over 14 billions in revenue, microsoft only did about 13 billion, so the stock got beat badly (percentage wise it was about a loss of more than 15%).
Notice how the greed operators opened the stock today, very near to the support line, leaving a big gap. The gap noise is "invisible" in LINE CHARTS.
We will see if on monday this stock rebounds from the support line.
The up target is still around 27 bucks (100 fib level)
The US dollar INDEX, which correlates very nicely (in the opposite manner) to the DJI, NASDAQ and SPY indices, is testing the bottom again (around 77.85).
Will it bounce off of it, or will it break thru?
Well, if stocks continue their current up rally, the "norm" is that the USD dollar will continue to go down, in exact opposite correlation to the indices.
If the dollar breaks thru the bottom, then hang on to your horses. It will get ugly for the "poor" dollar, and it will be good for stock investors.
But if the bottom is re-tested at it holds, then the bounce up for the dollar will be substantial. And stocks will retrace.
I will define the "potential" bounce up, in the next post.
Again, if the bottom around 77.85 holds in this second test, then the potential move up for the dollar can be substantial, all the way up to the 76 fib level, which is around 86.00
If the dollar breaks thru the bottom this time around, that normally correlates to a stock rally continuation.
If the dollar bounces off of the bottom, that normally correlates to a retracement of the gains in the stock indices.
Linear Mode
