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A falsifiable "prediction", which is part of objective TA
NOTE: This falsifiable prediction turned out to be incorrect, as I did not check first the overall trend of this instrument prior to this writing.
Hello,
OK, I don't see a lot of interest, so I will go ahead and will make a falsifiable prediction, which is the cornerstone of objective TA.
According to what I have seen i before in similar situations, the EURUSD traders are setting up a bull trap, to entive peopel to buy, when in fact the EUR is going south (as part of bigger move) to about 1.3750.
Here are the three pictures I took just now, to show my prediction, the EUR will go up to about 1.4014, then down to about 1.3756 or 1.3719.
As the song goes: I may be wrong, I may be right, I may be crazy.
If I am proven right, great, if I am proven wrong, great, that is part of objective TA.
Regards
EBTA FOLLOWER
Last edited by EBTAFOLLOWER; 07-31-2009 at 12:47 AM.
OK, I don't see a lot of interest, so I will go ahead and will make a falsifiable prediction, which is the cornerstone of objective TA.
According to what I have seen i before in similar situations, the EURUSD traders are setting up a bull trap, to entive peopel to buy, when in fact the EUR is going south (as part of bigger move) to about 1.3750.
Here are the three pictures I took just now, to show my prediction, the EUR will go up to about 1.4014, then down to about 1.3756 or 1.3719.
As the song goes: I may be wrong, I may be right, I may be crazy.
If I am proven right, great, if I am proven wrong, great, that is part of objective TA.
Regards
EBTA FOLLOWER
I am holding my breath...(o'h for a day or 2...interesting...What I found out using your method is that price overshoots the prediction....
I got the idea to do so when I looked at the first post from another suggestion for trading systems called "keep it simple".
In that post the trader shows a picture in the first post (around june 6).
Here I show the same currency pair, same date, same time frame, but using my method, and I show the entire move, with the two SELL trades, and the targeted price achieved.
I am holding my breath...(o'h for a day or 2...interesting...What I found out using your method is that price overshoots the prediction....
Pava, you are right.
I was hoping someone would see that. You are quick.
Yes, the "prediction" normally calls for a price target to be at 0 FIB for a down move, or 100 FIB for an up move, but I have seen that if there was a second trend line broken thru succesfully, the move completes at -23.6 FIB for a down move, or 123.6 FIB for an up move.
Very rarely the move stops on a dime. I guess the momentum of the move is such, and the desire so big (greed) to set up a trap for bulls or bears (to maximize profits), that it does so.
I was hoping someone would see that. You are quick.
Yes, the "prediction" normally calls for a price target to be at 0 FIB for a down move, or 100 FIB for an up move, but I have seen that if there was a second trend line broken thru succesfully, the move completes at -23.6 FIB for a down move, or 123.6 FIB for an up move.
Very rarely the move stops on a dime. I guess the momentum of the move is such, and the desire so big (greed) to set up a trap for bulls or bears (to maximize profits), that it does so.
Thank you for your interest.
EBTA FOLLOWER
Yep...actually price overshooting the target is a good...what am I saying...a great thing!....your method is the coolest thing on this site...thank you...would never come to this by myself....
Yep...actually price overshooting the target is a good...what am I saying...a great thing!....your method is the coolest thing on this site...thank you...would never come to this by myself....
Hey Pava,
Yes, my method is good, not infallible, but good. It took me years to find it. I am sharing it but hoping that people remember where they got it from.
One more sample just for you, a move just completed in the good old GBPJPY (what I call the geppy).
SO, you can see the two trend lines down, broken succesfully, and the two SELL operations.
Once the target is reached note how price moves towards the up trendline.
Once the price brokes the up trend line, ad succesfully re-tests it, it almost always retraces back to the 76.4 FIB.....but with the geppy, the overshoot can be way more.
Yes, my method is good, not infallible, but good. It took me years to find it. I am sharing it but hoping that people remember where they got it from.
One more sample just for you, a move just completed in the good old GBPJPY (what I call the geppy).
SO, you can see the two trend lines down, broken succesfully, and the two SELL operations.
Once the target is reached note how price moves towards the up trendline.
Once the price brokes the up trend line, ad succesfully re-tests it, it almost always retraces back to the 76.4 FIB.....but with the geppy, the overshoot can be way more.
Regards,
EBTA FOLLOWER
That's hypothetical...I use EASY EA to place orders and Trailing stops...so that not to get fooled by hypothetical anticipation...for orders I place trendline...name it BS 4 buy & SS 4 sell...what is that fibo indicator on your charts?
Yes, my method is good, not infallible, but good. It took me years to find it. I am sharing it but hoping that people remember where they got it from.
One more sample just for you, a move just completed in the good old GBPJPY (what I call the geppy).
SO, you can see the two trend lines down, broken succesfully, and the two SELL operations.
Once the target is reached note how price moves towards the up trendline.
Once the price brokes the up trend line, ad succesfully re-tests it, it almost always retraces back to the 76.4 FIB.....but with the geppy, the overshoot can be way more.
Regards,
EBTA FOLLOWER
Another observation...on the line chart there is another point for the third line under the second line...why only 2 lines?
here is the "completely" completed move on GBPJPY (down and up as per the triangle), which I referred to earlier, and because I did not look at the bigger picture behind that particular move, my previous "prediction" failed completely. That is OK, that is part of EBTA.
So, analysing the bigger picture, which I started to follow since mid july, this is the completed moved down form 100fib, to 0fib, and then the retracement back to 76 fib.
Now, this pair is reaffirming its upward trend, in my humble opinion. It seems it has broken the first big up trend resistance line.
...interesting...What I found out using your method is that price overshoots the prediction....
Linear Mode
