Read: New idea

Cyclesurfer · #1 (**permalink**) 05-14-2009, 05:34 AM

At least I've never seen it around. If it works it would be the simplest trading method ever. Simply put a 2000 exponential moving average on the 1 min chart on all 4 of the major pairs. When the price of one of them breaches the MA you simply buy or sell (as the case may be) with a tight stop loss and a TP of 100 pips. This idea works on the premise that the price will ALWAYS eventually deviate from the 2000 MA by at least that much. It cant help but do so. The question is, will it do so before you spend 100 pips worth of equity on opening and closing trades? Obviously if it hugs the MA it will start to eat into that eventual 100 pip move so you would rarely if ever make 100 pips at a time but I'm thinking that the system over all would be profitable, if not by much. Opinions? Comments? Insights?

One thing I can see right now is that it will need to be automated, otherwise you might get stuck at the computer opening and closing trades for hours. 100 pips is completely arbitrary BTW. The "profitable" number maybe more like 200 or 250. It will still eventually deviate by that much easily. Then again, it may be the case that the cost of opening and closing new trades is just too much, and it always ends up slightly negative. I do think it deserves testing though.

mudar · #2 (**permalink**) 05-14-2009, 01:37 PM

yes that a nice idea, just maybe some filter for range situation

prasxz · #3 (**permalink**) 05-14-2009, 02:38 PM

thanks Cyclesurfer for your idea, it's better to attach your chart to make it clear to everyone

===================
Forex Indicators Collection

ajk · #4 (**permalink**) 05-17-2009, 02:43 AM

its still an up or down decision...any biases?

Pandolin · #5 (**permalink**) 05-17-2009, 05:01 AM

Think I'd at least use Murrey_Math_Line_X_eng, and maybe throw in some support and resistance lines to boot. Also maybe add a couple of ADX,CCI,EMA, etc. cross signal alerts for entry points as well.
I know I'm just a noob, and we do usually over kill charts in the indicator department, even though our old PC's can hardly keep up... Hope to replace it soon, so I can start using Zups etc...

omargray · #6 (**permalink**) 05-17-2009, 06:30 AM

Isn't there already a simple EA based on opening trades using moving averages?

Cyclesurfer · #7 (**permalink**) 05-17-2009, 06:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ajk

its still an up or down decision...any biases?

Thanks for the quick replies guys, sorry I wasn't able to reply so quickly.

AJK:
I don't see any need for bias consideration here, since it's ultimate divergence will be random anyway. Even if the currency pair has been trending up for days it could still fall 100, 200, or even 300 points once it deviates. This would simply appear as a correction on the daily chart.

What do you think? I defer to your superior FOREX experience. NSI. (No Sarcasm Intended)

EDIT:
I just read your post again. It IS still an up or down decision, but then again, it isn't. Not exactly in the I think you mean. This system would just follow the market as it "threads the needle" between the 2000 MA. 2000 MA is just about one day on the 1 minute chart so if we consider that to be equilibrium then all we are doing is following the price as it interacts with that. There isn't really a decision here. If it goes above the MA buy..if it goes below again, sell. Eventually it will deviate from the 2000 mean by 200 (this is guaranteed). The question is, will there be any of that 200 left? We have opened and closed allot of trades waiting for it to deviate.

See? It's a very simple system.

I keep an FXCM micro account funded for testing systems. I want to test this but it's diffucult because the price can spend hours and hours playing around the 2000 MA before it deviates. This is a system that would have to be automated.

Cyclesurfer · #8 (**permalink**) 05-17-2009, 06:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by omargray

Isn't there already a simple EA based on opening trades using moving averages?

It may exist, but I havn't seen one exactly like this. It doesn't look for MA crosses with an eye on making profit on any one trade. It just keeps making trades every time the price crosses the 2000 MA. Eventually it will deviate enough so that hopefully there is profit left over.

To be clear:

What i mean is...say that it crossed the MA 10 times, costing you 5 pips each time. So (assuming a pip cost of 1) we have spent 50 pips. On the 11'th time it deviates (moves up or down, we don't care which) 200 pips. So we have 150 profit minus that last spread. The actual profit margin would be much worse in all likelihood, maybe as little as 10 pips, but we can offset that by using several lots once it's a proven concept.

The great thing about FOREX is that a system doesn't need a great profit margin to make substantial amounts of money.

Cyclesurfer · #9 (**permalink**) 05-17-2009, 06:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by prasxz

thanks Cyclesurfer for your idea, it's better to attach your chart to make it clear to everyone

===================
Forex Indicators Collection

Thanks. I will try to take a MetaTrader image of what i mean tomorrow. The first poster to reply was nice enough to post the 1 min chart with 2000 MA attache. I Will take that and build on it.

Cyclesurfer · #10 (**permalink**) 05-17-2009, 06:58 AM

It's tempting to think that if this system were fully automated then one could make the "magic profit number" variable. Presumably, eventually there would come a time where the price would deviate from the 2000 MA to such a degree that it makes back all the previous losses and makes some profit. Then again, it could turn into a classic case of a dog chasing it's tail.

I'm not a programmer BTW so if anyone wants to take a shot at making an EA I will host it on one of those dedicated EA servers if the prices aren't too crazy.

That way we can test it and find out if there is anything to it or not.