Probability - Page 3

Bongo · #21 (**permalink**) 01-16-2009, 03:38 PM

Have a look!
News - Automated Trading Championship 2007
B.

Beno · #22 (**permalink**) 01-16-2009, 04:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bongo

Have a look!
News - Automated Trading Championship 2007
B.

Thanks for that Bongo I had totally forgotten about that write up. Lot of good info.

Cheers

Beno

codobro · #23 (**permalink**) 01-16-2009, 11:56 PM

Hello Beno,

You may want to look over FX Sniper's work some more, as his posts have some of the most solid statistic-based data with explaination.

One of the points he did note was a specific stoploss, which I think would be consistent with this style. If not A, then B. The other factors mentioned in this thread would be taken into account.
Edit: This would keep your MM ratio's at more specific numbers and expectant targets.

Also your sample of 4 will have different results compared to a sample of 5, of 6, and so on. Data that doesn't seem to work for a set of 4 may work well on a set of 6, with same calculations.

I too would like to see your spreadsheet, dejnik, if you wouldn't mind sharing

Steve Robinson · #24 (**permalink**) 01-17-2009, 12:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beno

I have been look at into the development of a system that is totally indicator/ bar pattern free and fully probability driven, not an easy task, but once created you could in theory place it on to any pair any time frame any broker and achieve better than average results and it would not matter whether the broker alters the price or not so I started with a few “simple questions” what a joke.
The more you think about it the bigger the questions become, anyway here are the starting questions

Questions

(All based on the position entered on a new bar open)

How do you identify in which direction a bar is likely to move without using indicators?

What is the probability of the TP or SL being hit?

What is the maximum TP will be hit?

What is the maximum SL will be hit?

What can we control?

What is out of our control e.g. volume, price, Etc?

Some of the other things we need to keep in mind.

Should you treat your broker like your friend, or an actual broker or the house as in the casino house because as you all know the house always wins?

What the brokers edge (the house edge)?

The world is run by statistics if you don’t believe me just pick up a North, East, West, South Paper (News paper) and tell me there are no statistics in it.

Why not build a system that caters to that sort of thinking.
Some further reading

Wizard of Odds: The last word on gambling strategy
Casino game - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Hi Beno,

I love Statistic theory too, I was reading your questions and definitely, we miss an indicator for all this.

If you need something related with Statistic theory, please tell and I may help you!

Steve Robinson
Deutsche Bank
Financial Advisor

Walander · #25 (**permalink**) 01-17-2009, 03:00 AM

You failed to answer my question on another thread, so i'm going to say to Beno to stay away from you.

You posted all over every Forex Forum- that's not very professional considering the level of research DB has within their own company.

STFU and stop posing.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steve Robinson

Hi Beno,

I love Statistic theory too, I was reading your questions and definitely, we miss an indicator for all this.

If you need something related with Statistic theory, please tell and I may help you!

Steve Robinson
Deutsche Bank
Financial Advisor

athan00 · #26 (**permalink**) 01-17-2009, 04:35 PM

Hi Beno,

very interesting idea! Count me in... I ll start R&D on it as well and see what results I ll get. I have many friends that are mathematicians so they will help me on it as well.

Actually all these has to do with chaos theory.

Athan

Beno · #27 (**permalink**) 01-17-2009, 05:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by athan00

Hi Beno,

very interesting idea! Count me in... I ll start R&D on it as well and see what results I ll get. I have many friends that are mathematicians so they will help me on it as well.

Actually all these has to do with chaos theory.

Athan

Welcome to the forum

LOL chaos theory that is my brain at the moment "complete chaos"

you might want to look at google "probability of hitting target" most of it is gaming work but there is some interesting projects on moving targets and missile targeting theory which entails acceleration, momentum and speed I might sound a bit mad but most of these things can be found in the average days trading.

mudar · #28 (**permalink**) 01-19-2009, 04:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beno

Welcome to the forum

LOL chaos theory that is my brain at the moment "complete chaos"

you might want to look at google "probability of hitting target" most of it is gaming work but there is some interesting projects on moving targets and missile targeting theory which entails acceleration, momentum and speed I might sound a bit mad but most of these things can be found in the average days trading.

lollllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll

(n erd)

goog luck !