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You may want to look over FX Sniper's work some more, as his posts have some of the most solid statistic-based data with explaination.
One of the points he did note was a specific stoploss, which I think would be consistent with this style. If not A, then B. The other factors mentioned in this thread would be taken into account.
Edit: This would keep your MM ratio's at more specific numbers and expectant targets.
Also your sample of 4 will have different results compared to a sample of 5, of 6, and so on. Data that doesn't seem to work for a set of 4 may work well on a set of 6, with same calculations.
I too would like to see your spreadsheet, dejnik, if you wouldn't mind sharing
Last edited by codobro; 01-16-2009 at 11:57 PM.
Reason: Edit: more
I have been look at into the development of a system that is totally indicator/ bar pattern free and fully probability driven, not an easy task, but once created you could in theory place it on to any pair any time frame any broker and achieve better than average results and it would not matter whether the broker alters the price or not so I started with a few “simple questions” what a joke.
The more you think about it the bigger the questions become, anyway here are the starting questions
Questions
(All based on the position entered on a new bar open)
How do you identify in which direction a bar is likely to move without using indicators?
What is the probability of the TP or SL being hit?
What is the maximum TP will be hit?
What is the maximum SL will be hit?
What can we control?
What is out of our control e.g. volume, price, Etc?
Some of the other things we need to keep in mind.
Should you treat your broker like your friend, or an actual broker or the house as in the casino house because as you all know the house always wins?
What the brokers edge (the house edge)?
The world is run by statistics if you don’t believe me just pick up a North, East, West, South Paper (News paper) and tell me there are no statistics in it.
Why not build a system that caters to that sort of thinking.
Some further reading
very interesting idea! Count me in... I ll start R&D on it as well and see what results I ll get. I have many friends that are mathematicians so they will help me on it as well.
very interesting idea! Count me in... I ll start R&D on it as well and see what results I ll get. I have many friends that are mathematicians so they will help me on it as well.
Actually all these has to do with chaos theory.
Athan
Welcome to the forum
LOL chaos theory that is my brain at the moment "complete chaos"
you might want to look at google "probability of hitting target" most of it is gaming work but there is some interesting projects on moving targets and missile targeting theory which entails acceleration, momentum and speed I might sound a bit mad but most of these things can be found in the average days trading.
LOL chaos theory that is my brain at the moment "complete chaos"
you might want to look at google "probability of hitting target" most of it is gaming work but there is some interesting projects on moving targets and missile targeting theory which entails acceleration, momentum and speed I might sound a bit mad but most of these things can be found in the average days trading.
(n erd)
Linear Mode
