I think you should make a good website and the people could subscribe via it also you could make "how to use my levels","what did the levels do historicaly","how to subscribe"..you know all of that stuff like what did those numbers did if you would've followed them.

For the Dow and dollar most of the weekends i do these correlations but to tell you the truth never on those 2 so thanks. but because i was a futures trader one day it was my job to study correlations and spreads on inner markets and outer ones like corn march and december also gold and crude oil you know such things now forex is less headache but its good to have the knowledge on the back of your mind.

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Hi!

When I won't make money trading FOREX, I'll have my website.

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Nina

We must fight on the winning side, not on the side we may believe to be correct.

Focus, Patience and Discipline

I agree with Nina,that (being too a Barca supporter )this year is going to be tough,all is bet on 4 matches and the psychological strength is not there..we could try a correlation with IBEX or Bcn stock exchange index ..or even better some Brazilian magic..
Cementman,I enjoy your thread,I was directed to it by Malcik,and I believe you are doing a good job,and courageous,just posting your trades,naked,in advance..

Frankly,I thought that your last trade was going to be problematic,and I am glad it was not,though the mid term trend is down,as you rightly signalled,I was waiting for a correction to be produced at a slightly higher level,since it didn`t,I just didn`t enter and I am very happy that you exited your shorts in the Blue..

The negative correlation that Nina rightly pointed out,betweeen the Dow and the USD has been going for some time..with some room for smoothing ,basically Dow Up Usd down..let`s see for how long

And,Nina..we will always have Messi,this guy really doesn`t feel the pressure,
and is a genius player..so,let`s committ the cardinal sin of trading,but in football...HOPE..LONG BARCA,SHORT Real madrid

Regards

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Somos mortales hasta el primer beso..y la segunda copa de vino

Great, this thread is not dead Sorry to interrupt you guys but I'd like to get part of our discussion back to the methodology.

What are your opinions on the three systems -- Vanessa, Tlatomi and Fozzy -- as far as their robustness goes? I have a little aversion against the 'special' indicators that have been created for MT4 exclusively for the sole reason that MT4 is a free piece of software and therefore anyone can afford to use it.
As Simba knows, I'm very afraid of overfitting and using fancy indicators with a dozen of settings parameters. Overfitting is like a nightmare to me. The worst thing I can imagine is that I find a system suitable for me, do a backtest on it, become very confident with it. Then I'll start trading it live, and that minute it will just turn around and start losing money. I will have a strong discipline because of the confidence gained through the backtest and therefore won't stop trading, and eventually lose my account.
That's why I've gone through some kind of a mental transition that makes me comfortable only when using the very basic indicators. I could use a more complicated tool only if I understood the science behind it very well -- like for example digital filters and non-lagging indicators (but unfortunately I don't understand it yet).

The three systems mentioned in this thread either use special indicators or they use the basic ones but too many of those. I have doubts about its robustness and endurance. On the other hand, Woodie's CCI to which I've dedicated a few hours of studying in past days looks a lot simpler and more robust (it works just everywhere and has been traded for more than 30 years). The patterns have underlying explanations of what they mean and why it makes them profitable. And plus, they are discretionary which makes them more durable because they can't be automated. They are also discretionary in an easy way that is understandable and tradable for a beginner as well, and it should be a good start for training his market perception.

Cementman, please don't take this as a critique... I just want to know your opinions and arguments on this issue and participate in a productive discussion

Thanks!

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Malcik

[quote=Malcik]Great, this thread is not dead Sorry to interrupt you guys but I'd like to get part of our discussion back to the methodology.

What are your opinions on the three systems -- Vanessa, Tlatomi and Fozzy -- as far as their robustness goes? I have a little aversion against the 'special' indicators that have been created for MT4 exclusively for the sole reason that MT4 is a free piece of software and therefore anyone can afford to use it.
As Simba knows, I'm very afraid of overfitting and using fancy indicators with a dozen of settings parameters. Overfitting is like a nightmare to me. The worst thing I can imagine is that I find a system suitable for me, do a backtest on it, become very confident with it. Then I'll start trading it live, and that minute it will just turn around and start losing money. I will have a strong discipline because of the confidence gained through the backtest and therefore won't stop trading, and eventually lose my account.
That's why I've gone through some kind of a mental transition that makes me comfortable only when using the very basic indicators. I could use a more complicated tool only if I understood the science behind it very well -- like for example digital filters and non-lagging indicators (but unfortunately I don't understand it yet).

The three systems mentioned in this thread either use special indicators or they use the basic ones but too many of those. I have doubts about its robustness and endurance. On the other hand, Woodie's CCI to which I've dedicated a few hours of studying in past days looks a lot simpler and more robust (it works just everywhere and has been traded for more than 30 years). The patterns have underlying explanations of what they mean and why it makes them profitable. And plus, they are discretionary which makes them more durable because they can't be automated. They are also discretionary in an easy way that is understandable and tradable for a beginner as well, and it should be a good start for training his market perception.

Cementman, please don't take this as a critique... I just want to know your opinions and arguments on this issue and participate in a productive discussion

.................................................. ................................................

Just check by testing if the robustness you require is the adequate one..

No system is perfectly robust,if it were ,its robustness will feedback into the loop destroying previous robustness and changing the system`s results making it imperfect.

cementman hinted at what you need,just choose a system ,test it and STICK with it..trading results are derived from behaviour not from systems,behaviour is derived from beliefs..and if these comprise a need for absolute safety,they will impair your trading..and don`t forget the fundamentals

Regards

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Guys sorry for being late..just wanted to tell you this thread wouldn't be nothing without your cntributions it's 1:30 after midnight and its been a long day so i'll try to answer every thing tomorrow..another thing is i can't describe my happiness that Simba also showed up here, and to give you a hint Malcik here is Simba's answer i wouldn't have said it better

"No system is perfectly robust,if it were ,its robustness will feedback into the loop destroying previous robustness and changing the system`s results making it imperfect.

cementman hinted at what you need,just choose a system ,test it and STICK with it..trading results are derived from behaviour not from systems,behaviour is derived from beliefs..and if these comprise a need for absolute safety,they will impair your trading..and don`t forget the fundamentals.

Thanx again Simba

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Nina "When I won't make money trading FOREX, I'll have my website" I don't mean that you make one of those sites that try to fool people and take there money by scamming them or convincing that they're going to be millionaires in few days like snake oil sales people as you described them before, all I'm saying as long as you have service and a very good one if i may say and also subscription ,why don't you make a site to hold all of that including documentary to your previous services, I don't have a site caz all of my business depends on a ward of mouth and i don't have service with a subscription to offer. any way it was just an idea i didn't mean to interfere in your business, God knows i said that caz i hate to see the crocks all over the net and the good people like you are keeping low profiles.

Now i want to say I'm really glad, good old Simba is here 2, the guy with the long posts like me . I just want to say Simba I've read every word in your posts some times even when some one ask you about some thing and i read the answer i feel like if i wanted to answer that question i would've said the same as you maybe its telepathy

Malcik ..I don't take any of your words as criticism, some people i really feel there intentions and i know there looking for the beneficiary for all and perfection (which really doesn't exist ) but I'm gonna do my best answering your thoughts.
- As for the robustness, every one of them has it one week you'll find the 1st was a winner and kept you from a lot of false signals and the 2nd was losing and the next week you'll find the opposite so you'll have to choose but never switch between them if you choose Vanessa stick to it, Tlatomi do the same, the fatal mistake is to think that the grass is greener on the other side, also don't go in with a Vanessa signal and get out caz of fozzy's signal.
to keep it short choose any of them that match your personality and also choose the time frame one thing my mentor once told me "if you're a short term or an intraday trader never switch into a swing in the middle of a trade saying hey i'm going to hold that over night and don't do the opposite for sure", also you know robustness by back testing so lets say i back test the all of them for 3 years does it really make a difference if in 3 years the first made 10000 pips and the second made 10022 pip ..NO it doesn't all i need is a good average system that win more than 55% and suits my time frame and with some filters or fine tuning and most importantly emotion control and money management and I'll make it an 80% winner and end the year with a fat account.. I'm not saying there are a lot of winners out there but if you look at the winning people you'll find the similarity is in the attitude not the system.

About you hating the custom indicators, would you say that I'm going to walk a 1000 miles or ride a horse but I will not use cars caz I might be in the desert one day with no car or the cars might vanish one day so I don't want to get use to it or my grandfathers didn't use cars .. Your grandfathers didn't use it caz they didn't know about it if they did I'm sure they would've drove cars 1000 years ago.. also you have to keep up with every tool and weapon you got in your trading arsenal, caz the market keep changing its patterns and characteristics and people keep inventing indicators to keep up with it, its like hackers and anti viruses and what you see today as a new indicator, who knows after a year of now it'll be in all platforms as standard indicators, MACD was the top secret indicator 30-40 years ago and at that time I'm sure the inventor made a lot of money caz if you go back with history chart specially with the futures contracts that had been there for over 150 years and put the MACD on corn for instance it was working like magic now the market changed its characteristic and if you trade with it only most probably you'll be whipped out in a month(I mean it as it is with the standard inputs).

To be afraid to get confident and then lose your money, well that’s why they made demo accounts though I know it's different from live from the emotions point of view but still you can make 70% of what you did on demo if you're disciplined.
And I think I answered that before I have bad weeks or 4 losses in the row that doesn't mean that the first thing that comes in to my mind is changing the system just as I said have a limit for losing for one day and one week if it got hit I step away and come back the next week and if you have a good money management you should be able to fight another day you want lose your money that fast even with a bad system unless you go in to a trade fully loaded so you lose it all in one week caz you're risking 25% with a 1:400 leverage this is the only way you lose your money in a week but lets say you get is with 3 mini for each 10000 like Simba said before and your stop is 50 and even with 1:100 leverage you'll need about 66 losing trade in a row to lose all your money and if you're swing trader that takes 2-3 trades a week that's like 25 week. and even if that's true and you said that you've back tested the system and the market is changing its pattern and your system is not going to work in the new era still that doesn't happen in one day it takes a long time that’s why it's called era.
Also I don't see that these systems are any complicated at all, Vanessa is MA's and MACD what could be more simple than that and the Tlatomi is MA's and FX snipper also the fozzy is MA and RSI..if those are not simple I don't know what is, and as for you have to understand every thing. you use the airplane to travel don't you, do you you know every thing about it's mechanics do you even know how to fly one.. NO, it would be great to know but it doesn't hurt not to know. I bet if you made a survey between traders about the formula or equation of any simple indicator that they use every day they wouldn't know it.

And finally I see you like CCI , good and I've heard a lot of love poetries about it but if you can fit it in to your trading style go ahead that’s why I keep telling people trade what suits you not the others, at the end I see your problem is psychological , you are afraid of trying and losing and losing is a part of this game.. that's why you keep thinking and thinking, well let me tell you this
"When the philosophers were still thinking the ignorant were far away on the success path" and "Don't be afraid to try matures built Noah's Ark and professionals built Titanic".

I hope I answered most of what's in your mind and again welcome Nina and Simba and yeeeeeeeh Barca

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" I just want to say Simba I've read every word in your posts some times even when some one ask you about some thing and i read the answer i feel like if i wanted to answer that question i would've said the same as you maybe its telepathy"..

That is what i felt too when I saw your comments..and astonishing.. the "Amateurs built the Noah`s Ark..professionals built Titanic" is a sentence I often requote it to my non trading friends,when they doubt before a decision.

Regards

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Somos mortales hasta el primer beso..y la segunda copa de vino

Very nice exchange of thoughts, ideas, and commentaries. Great work, cementman, Simba and others!

ENJOY!

fxcruiser

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Simba thanks for your words its just that feeling you know when you read a book and from the first word you lock your room door and you end up reading the whole book and its midnight and you don't know why i think its chemistry between personalities or minds on the other hands some time you open a thread or a book and you say Naaaa i don't like it already. I'm really happy to hear that from you.

Well.. well fxcruiser is here 2 ..I don't know what to say guys all the great minds of our forum are visiting my humble thread thank you for your kind words.

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