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I'll be turning off the strategy today- my strategy works within its current conditions, but I personally do not feel like its systematic enough. I'll be reposing a new statement probably in the next week or so, when I finally build a cheat sheet for me to trade with. This is because I have 3 systems working together that provide different signals- I need to develop some stats on the patterns which occure within the systems together and not the systems themselves.
Cheers,
I've taken brief read and I'm not very impressed by the ways he sets up his S/R points, however I like his ideas when it comes to the confirmation of a resistance points. The reason I do not like his S/R points and how he defines them visually is because he seemingly uses open and closes to define a SR Point. If you think about a candle, or even a bar (I've moved from candle charting to bar charting), a Opens or Closes has no "real" meaning aside from its reference to time. If you think about time, time has no significance unless it happens to be the open or close of a session, in which is related to a particular group of people. Unless someone does the leg work and proves that opening of particular time frame candles holds significance in movements, I don't see how they could possibly influence a pivot point placement. I personally do not use closes for my SR points, and only look at the close when it confirms my indicators on that one candle.
I can probably guarantee you that the way he confirms SR points are on a mathematical calculation rather than what he explain in the actually article. His description of how he confirms an SR opportunity is probably the theory he first originated, then used quant to confirm whether or not he could prove the move was worthwhile to note a SR points. Discretionary trading like that would simply become hazardous.
Secondly,
if you're charting with candles, I recommend moving to bars. I've been a big fan of candles since I started trading and am now a bar chart convert. The reason behind this, green bars make me feel less biased and force me to analyze charts a lot more. You'll also find it a lot easier to draw proper S/R Trend lines or Horizontal lines.
Walander,
Congratulations for the results so far,and for having done your homework,and using your own statistics,I am sure that you will be extremely successful with your methods.
The only reason behind my post,besides saying hello and wish you the best,is that I believe SamSeiden method is by far the easiest one to trade as a professional .
The drawing of his SR areas looks silly at first(to me it did),but if you check hundreds of past examples,you will see it is ideal for retracements to previous demand and supply areas.
It is not perfect but it is very,very good,worth checking in deep(he published many pdfs at fxstreet,and at his website,which are free,and you really can extract the basis of his method just with those).
I agree with you that sometimes seeing an area defined by open and closes when there is a spike protruding from it,looks counterintuitive...but when there is a retracement and you check it,almost always it goes to the area,very few times it goes to the spike limit...I usually don`t care,because I either set limit orders at the spike and/or wait for a rejection from the area splitting my entries...the second method is way more profitable,since you have many more trade opportunities,and they have a very good edge..This usually happens because the spike was formed by previous running of stops,so the real "area" of demand/supply imbalance is better defined by close/high or close/low relationships.
Hope that my comments added something to your view of the markets and didn`t distract you from "polishing" your methodology.
To Rick:I think you did a favor to many traders at this forum by mentioning Sam Seiden,Thanks for that,and congratulations for being focused on the right track.
Thanks for the reply. I'll take a closer look at Sam's work and come back to the forum with a post. Meanwhile here's a picture of my new cheatsheet because flipping charts is simply too time-consuming.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SIMBA
Walander,
Congratulations for the results so far,and for having done your homework,and using your own statistics,I am sure that you will be extremely successful with your methods.
The only reason behind my post,besides saying hello and wish you the best,is that I believe SamSeiden method is by far the easiest one to trade as a professional .
The drawing of his SR areas looks silly at first(to me it did),but if you check hundreds of past examples,you will see it is ideal for retracements to previous demand and supply areas.
It is not perfect but it is very,very good,worth checking in deep(he published many pdfs at fxstreet,and at his website,which are free,and you really can extract the basis of his method just with those).
I agree with you that sometimes seeing an area defined by open and closes when there is a spike protruding from it,looks counterintuitive...but when there is a retracement and you check it,almost always it goes to the area,very few times it goes to the spike limit...I usually don`t care,because I either set limit orders at the spike and/or wait for a rejection from the area splitting my entries...the second method is way more profitable,since you have many more trade opportunities,and they have a very good edge..This usually happens because the spike was formed by previous running of stops,so the real "area" of demand/supply imbalance is better defined by close/high or close/low relationships.
Hope that my comments added something to your view of the markets and didn`t distract you from "polishing" your methodology.
To Rick:I think you did a favor to many traders at this forum by mentioning Sam Seiden,Thanks for that,and congratulations for being focused on the right track.
I trade the top 3 liquid pairs + USDCAD for business reasons and E/J
E/U U/J G/U
Are the pairs you trade decided by statistical analysis
No, Pairs are chosen by liquidity and personal interest.
or just "discretionary" things?
My trades are based on a trading plan which involves 4 systems. Three systems are based off the statistics that I developed. The other system is technical analysis using S/R points. These S/R points can be considered discretionary, but the system itself is not. Trades are placed off mechanical rules of all 4 systems.
On the other hand TP and SL are handled differently. Depending on my work situation, I will place TP and SL's to protect a trade, whereas I prefer to manage a trade personally. Trailing SL's work- but do not work as proficient as the human touch.
Also, how long back test did you do?
Entries of the 3 statistical systems that I built ran back 6 years each. I ran variable trailing stops variation and hard SL + TP sensitivity scenarios on all 3 systems. 82.31% of them were profitable.
Everyone has their own style to trading S/R points.
But hypothetically, using "close" on anything less than a sessions basis goes 100% against my theories. So I tend to stick with trying to ignore them, whether or not that works for some people, I do not know. What I do know that I find more success trying to ignore them than I do when I use them.
But to each their own Blue!
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueWhale
If I may add my 2 cents, I hope Walander doesn't mind/
I use a line chart to identify S/R and Trend lines, then use candle to identify prior congestion areas.
Been fiddling around with some new strategies- again all tested on the same account.
Focused only on EJ- as new strategy is a bit more time / chart intensive. Risk has been adjusted to formally meet a trading strategy that uses a single crossrate.
Linear Mode
