Lets Get Real

radatats · #1 (**permalink**) 03-03-2009, 02:46 PM

I have read every system and trade idea out there and tried them all. Put lots of different indies and combos on my charts and had various levels of success. In reality I have found that the basic ideas of price action are still the best. However, I don't yet have the confidence to go naked in this world. I still need a couple of indies to show me what is behind the scenes.

Anyways I need to have a little backup with my trading. I am tired of talking to the walls. I want a little feedback and maybe support/constructive criticism. So I am going to post my trades and my trading system here for all to see. If you like it great. If you don't, tell me why and how to make it better. If you can't do that then please don't comment.

I will post my indies and my template. I can tell you now that I will never be able to take all the trades. I have to sleep and live a real life. However, I will try to get as many as possible.

I got the idea about restarting every hour from another trader on this forum. I have never paid him a dime and I owe him nothing but thanks so don't start flaming me. The shit simply works.

It is more than that though. It is about real money management and risk management. It is about good entries and exits. For those I use scripts exclusively. You have to know what your risk is and you need to place the right trade every time. I can't do it without the scripts. You will get those too.

Trade the 1hr candle. If it is up you should be long and vice versa. I trade the 1 min chart on these principles. I risk 5-10% of my account on every trade with a 20-25 pip stop. This means that I have to be VERY SURE of my trade before pulling the trigger. It also means that I only need a couple of trades a day to be successful.

I will post the rest later today with the indies and the template.

Kenny Rogers · #2 (**permalink**) 03-03-2009, 04:15 PM

Hi radatats,

Yes, I've also looked at TRO's material, and while I do not trade it, I believe their is enough statistics behind his logic. I think TRO received some bad reputation because he takes snippets of others code and rework it into his indicators (which is seen by other coders as "stealing" others work).

I'm a trader first, so I always look at the trade logic and the trade itself before I study the code. You can write the most beautiful code but if it is not applicable, then it is not very useful to a trader like repainting.

With that said, I'll see what I can contribute later as I have read other disciplines using a similar approach as TRO, which is data mining for statistics and looking at the chance of going X when it had already moved Y. The kinetic, a body of motion tends to stay in motion.

goldensight · #3 (**permalink**) 03-03-2009, 05:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by radatats

I have read every system and trade idea out there and tried them all. Put lots of different indies and combos on my charts and had various levels of success. In reality I have found that the basic ideas of TRO are still the best. However, I don't yet have the confidence to go naked in this world. I still need a couple of indies to show me what is behind the scenes.

Anyways I need to have a little backup with my trading. I am tired of talking to the walls. I want a little feedback and maybe support/constructive criticism. So I am going to post my trades and my trading system here for all to see. If you like it great. If you don't, tell me why and how to make it better. If you can't do that then please don't comment.

I will post my indies and my template. I can tell you now that I will never be able to take all the trades. I have to sleep and live a real life. However, I will try to get as many as possible.

I have to tip my hat to Avery AKA TRO before I move on. His ideas about restarting every hour revolutionized my thinking about how this whole thing works. I have never paid him a dime and I owe him nothing but thanks so don't start flaming me. The shit simply works.

It is more than that though. It is about real money management and risk management. It is about good entries and exits. For those I use scripts exclusively. You have to know what your risk is and you need to place the right trade every time. I can't do it without the scripts. You will get those too.

If you have ever followed TRO you know that he keeps it simple. Trade the 1hr candle. If it is up you should be long and vice versa. I trade the 1 min chart on these principles. I risk 5-10% of my account on every trade with a 20-25 pip stop. This means that I have to be VERY SURE of my trade before pulling the trigger. It also means that I only need a couple of trades a day to be successful.

I will post the rest later today with the indies and the template.

Rad, Your "restarting every hour" intrigues me, if you have the time could you elaborate a bit on that? My preference with trading is simplicity so your mindframe and trading style are right up my alley, am looking forward to seeing your setup. cheers,Goldensight edit: I just reread your first post and I presume it answers my question about restarting where you stated "Trade the 1hr candle. If it is up you should be long and vice versa."

radatats · #4 (**permalink**) 03-03-2009, 05:14 PM

Hi Kenny,

Thanks for the input. The big improvement for me came with the revelation that every hour is like a brand new day. I used to look at a trend or move without relation to time and if I missed the entry I was lost at trying to get in. Now I have a frame of reference for every hour of the day and it makes a huge difference. I can sit down at the computer at any time and basically get involved right away with a meaningful entry. You should also understand that my trades do not last much longer than an hour! I know that 10% is a LOT of gain. (or loss). I would have bleeding ulcers trying to trade a daily chart.

Anyways, here are my indies and the template for my charts. I will add more about it later.

Update: There are 3 templates. 1 has the BZ indie shown in the chart below, the other has a different version that shows past hour levels too with the BZ text. In the new one, I have also added a couple of indies to help you stay in the trade or at least be more comfortable with the current direction. One is the Wall which is set to represent the 5min 8-13 EMA. The other is an EMA cross alert to help you pinpoint the trade in a fast moving 1min chart. The third does away with all extra indies for those that are comfortable trading price action. Feel free to use the one you like.

radatats · #5 (**permalink**) 03-03-2009, 05:26 PM

Here are the scripts I use for placing and managing my trades. I strongly suggest using them. You should review the settings and make sure they are appropriate for your risk parameters.

My buy and sell scripts have 20 pip stops and 100 pip take profits with 10% risk. That means that if you get stopped out at 20 pips, YOU WILL LOSE 10% OF YOUR ACCOUNT. It also means that a 20 pip gain will give you a 10% gain in your account.

I also use the Hot Key function available in MT4. I set my hotkey for auto sell to Alt-S and Alt-B to buy. I use Alt-X to close all open trades and take profit.

If you are not used to using scripts please set the risk to 2% for the first few trades until you see how they work.

Before you ask, place these scripts in the experts/scripts folder and either restart the platform or compile them. Then you will see them in the Navigator panel. Right click on them to set the Hot Key.

If you don't know what I am talking about, press F1 and read the help file from front to back. In fact, if you haven't done that you should not be trading.

Kenny Rogers · #6 (**permalink**) 03-03-2009, 05:31 PM

Hi radatats,

I think if you are going to trade this method. It would be important for yourself to replicate the logic behind the theory. For instance, you should start data-mining and setting up a third party statistical software to prove to yourself the validity of your claim. Currently, you are doing it live because you are taking the trades, which can also be done. However, with the data mining and statistical work, you can start to zero in on the sweet spot and improve on the model.

With that said, did you know that Mark Fisher, one of the great traders in the equities and commodities market did this research decades ago. He built an empire with a similar model. He even wrote a book describing the ACD method, which he describes the importance of TIME. He didn't believe all timeframes were equal, his research showed some time periods were more significant that others. And the rest is history.

I'm beginning to write an essay now, I'll let you establish your method and thread first before I continue on with my drivel.

generousforex · #7 (**permalink**) 03-03-2009, 05:39 PM

Thank you for this.. please keep going. Watching with interest!

I personally LOVE the 5 min charts with my system.. this looks
like it could easily be used on 5 min charts as well? Maybe just
adjust your MM to deal with larger stop for the 5 min instead
of 1 min charts?

Thanks!

Brian

radatats · #8 (**permalink**) 03-03-2009, 05:43 PM

Now you are getting too complicated already. The whole idea is to get it easier. As Avery says, see what is happening and trade it. I add my own crutches to support my decisions.

The basic concept is simple beyond belief. If the hour is trading down you should be short, if the hour is trading up you should be long.

It really is that simple. Yes, some hours are more important than others. 0700, 0900, 1200, 1900, 0200, and 0300 EST are all very important hours for market movement due to the opening or closing of various markets around the world and you will tend to see bigger movements during those hours.

Other than that, just learn to trade it. Lets allow others to analyze it.

radatats · #9 (**permalink**) 03-03-2009, 05:56 PM

One more thing, I only trade GBPUSD, EURUSD, and EURJPY. Mainly due to the spreads and the liquidity. I often raise my stops to 25 pips on cable and EURJPY because of their movement and bigger spreads.

You should feel free to make your own decisions in this matter as this system is just as viable for all pairs. However, take into account the average movement of the pair and the spread before starting to trade.

I also tend to trade only one pair at a time. This is a factor of my own risk tolerance and my need to nurse my trades. This is a personal character issue and may not be reflective of your trading style. As a result I may miss perfectly good trades on other pairs once I decide to get into a trade.

camisa · #10 (**permalink**) 03-03-2009, 06:15 PM

i like the idea of dividing trading periods in hours...