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IMHO , you should withdraw the acid of your account "20K" and risk only the profit you have made, your taking a big risk in your trades and risk work both ways, you can get lucky few time but the one thing sure about luck is that it always change
Wish you all the luck and success in your trades
All true Minime, but I was listening to The Gambler again, and Kenny Rogers said it best:
"...You never count your money, when you are sitting at the table, there will time enough for counting, when the dealing is done..."
And the dealing ain't done yet, and I'm not ready to walk away.
__________________
aka jbfx
Last edited by Kenny Rogers; 11-23-2008 at 05:23 PM.
I'm done for the month of November. Trading volume should slow down ahead of the American tradition of Thanksgiving...hopefully.
Some statistics of my trading this month: Nothing spectacular, but it got the job done.
2:1 Reward to Risk Ratio.
About 50% Hit Rate
This demonstrates the importance of having a good RR ratio. So now, in my future developments, I will forgo the negative RR ratio, even in my scalping ideas. I'm about as right as flipping a damn coin!
Ride the trend, and hold on for dear life!
__________________
aka jbfx
Last edited by Kenny Rogers; 11-25-2008 at 10:09 AM.
So since you really believe the market is 100% random (which I don't), what is your philosphy on trading strategies? To me, there is only a few ways of doing it.
Either you capture it by money management (semi-martingale) or you use some type volatility capture (i.e. grid) where you don't really care about direction of trade. I think carry trades are pretty much dead at this point.
I'm always up to learning new things and open to new ideas that has merit.
I don't want to turn your thread into a mess by discussing strategies, but here's all I can offer regarding EA trading.
1. Forget the auto pilot 2-way bullshit. YOU must set it for "unidirectional" -depending on your personal market sentiment (a.k.a - hunch).
2. Having said that (and considering my market theory), forget all the EA's with directional logic...they're useless to you if you're good on the price direction. (If you're not good on price direction... any EA will take a loss).
3. Bust out a grid, and figure out a safe spacing ratio. Then, skinny down on the sizing, and wait for a nice 4 hour pull back. Set up some limit orders, and let the little F'er run.
4. Profits... check back in 4 to 8 hours... if you got em, take em. Then repeat.
5. No profits, no problem. Simply close at (your) predefined equity DD, double the sizing on a new directional change. Losses made up, and new money in the bank.
6. Keep a tally of the losses for every close. This way you'll know when your back in the money from the double down.
Initial 1:1 is strongly recommended. Let us never get to the point when we start fooling ourselves into thinking that we're getting pretty good at picking direction. Being right on a move is a seasonal phenomenon. You might be on for Spring and Summer, but Winter and Fall might really suck. The only edge is the creative use of leverage.
MM
Sorry for the verbal mess above, here's a picture that should pretty much sell the concept...
Last edited by Mr.Marketz; 11-25-2008 at 05:04 PM.
It's been pretty good so far (keeping my fingers crossed), but I know there are many who reads this thread probably think it has all been just dumb luck, and what I'm doing is just gambling. Only time will tell. There is definitely a lot of discretion in my strategy entry and exits. For the most part, it is not a set and forget type of EA.
I'm hoping for a repeat performance % wise in the month of December, but I don't think it will be as good as November because there is too much holiday and vacations happening at the end of next month.
__________________
aka jbfx
Last edited by Kenny Rogers; 11-25-2008 at 10:57 PM.
I don't want to turn your thread into a mess by discussing strategies, but here's all I can offer regarding EA trading.
1. Forget the auto pilot 2-way bullshit. YOU must set it for "unidirectional" -depending on your personal market sentiment (a.k.a - hunch).
2. Having said that (and considering my market theory), forget all the EA's with directional logic...they're useless to you if you're good on the price direction. (If you're not good on price direction... any EA will take a loss).
3. Bust out a grid, and figure out a safe spacing ratio. Then, skinny down on the sizing, and wait for a nice 4 hour pull back. Set up some limit orders, and let the little F'er run.
4. Profits... check back in 4 to 8 hours... if you got em, take em. Then repeat.
5. No profits, no problem. Simply close at (your) predefined equity DD, double the sizing on a new directional change. Losses made up, and new money in the bank.
6. Keep a tally of the losses for every close. This way you'll know when your back in the money from the double down.
Initial 1:1 is strongly recommended. Let us never get to the point when we start fooling ourselves into thinking that we're getting pretty good at picking direction. Being right on a move is a seasonal phenomenon. You might be on for Spring and Summer, but Winter and Fall might really suck. The only edge is the creative use of leverage.
MM
Sorry for the verbal mess above, here's a picture that should pretty much sell the concept...
There is no need to apologize for articulating yourself in a very detailed manner. I appreciate the thought and insight that was put into the post, unlike most of the rants populating the forum. So as I had assumed from experience, you are basically using a grid and money management to capture most of the volatility.
And I strongly agree that picking a single direction is the most profitable way of trading. The grid is a novel idea when first introduced, but I have only seen a few instances where people actually applied it in a sensible way that actually has a chance for profitability. Most people try to trade micro lots to dumb down the risk, or let the grid just keep trading like it is a cash machine for the long haul. Both will face grim realities when the market goes into its price pattern to kill grids somewhere between a trend and a range. So I see you have mitigated this somewhat with your strategy. Although you do realize you are practicing semi-martingalish money management.
So what happens when you have 6 losses in a row? Are you doubling down each time? That can get painful real quick.
I also have a pocket grid strategy that I have playing with in my mind. I just might code it up one of these days.
BTW, I have funded a second account with $5K to trade high risk, high return strategies. This will get interesting because I believe it will mostly depend on luck.
Not necessarily. It depends on how I'm feeling at the time. Sometimes (let's say on a long setup), I'll close out when I spot that price has pretty much ripped through my initial support area. Instead of reversing (and doubling), I'll set up another grid (buylimits) at a lower level support (doubling on the size). This is why I mentioned taking note of the previous balance prior to closing a loss. If the second setup shows a profit (on top of the previous loss; I'm out).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kenny Rogers
That can get painful real quick.
On 4 hour bars... nothing happens "real quick".
Final analogy:
Trading can be compared to the story of David and Goliath. You can be David, or you can be Goliath. The way to decide which character you're going to play solely depends on your edge. My edge is the creative use of leverage, and knowing that eventually people want to book their profits. All I need to do is to isolate locations where profit taking may occur. I can be wrong many times over, and still walk away with someone else's money.
Although it's really none of my business, I'd love to see you skinny down on those sizes at some point, Kenny. The "gambler's" way of life only has a place in songs and movies. There's something to be said about acquiring a calm piece of mind when trades are open... and this is the only way I have been able to do it successfully. But again, to each his own... I'll be around.
MM
Last edited by Mr.Marketz; 11-26-2008 at 08:03 AM.
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