The manual long trade I took before London open didn't close until the US open.
But when it did, it was a huge spike on the Euro to my favor.
In hindsight, it was mostly luck though because if the spike had gone the other way, I would have had a major loss. But I'll take it, that's why this is trading.
I was playing the high probability that price would touch either of the trendlines for small "scalp" profit. That's all I was looking for.

The problem with many traders is analysis paralysis. They want to filter out all the bad trades. They want to have very high probability of winning based on past history.
And after all their criteria and filters, they can't make a decision to actually trade because there are too many questions in their own head.

Account #1 Summary (Post Date):

Deposit/Withdrawal: 20 000.00
Balance: 37 750.73
Equity: 37 750.73



On the chart, I drew 2 trendlines in red, as you can see the Euro was compressing into a triangle.
I entered at the opening price of the light blue line at 1.2615.
I was hoping for an exit around where the yellow X is with a trailing stop because I had thought the price would at least hit the upper trendline before any real movment.
When the spike came, it was so fast that I actually exited at the yellow line 1.2706 via a trailing stop and left 100+ pips on the table.
It's all good.

I could have easily folded, but thanks to The Gambler, I knew when to hold and play the hand!

/cue the music

Attached Images

EuroTriangle.gif (12.9 KB, 158 views)

__________________
aka jbfx

IMHO , you should withdraw the acid of your account "20K" and risk only the profit you have made, your taking a big risk in your trades and risk work both ways, you can get lucky few time butthe one thing sure about luck is that it always change

Wish you all the luck and success in your trades

__________________

I'm trying to upgrade my snake oil potion.

I think I'm within reach of the Red one.



Thanks MiniMe for the luck, I'm going to need it! Trading has a lot to do with pyschology, and if you start withdrawing now, I know carelessness and a sense of false security will creep in which will lead to stupid trades and losses. And if you let fear and greed have any foothold, it will eat you alive. If I'm going to take my account to even higher in the future, I'm going to have to get used to this size and account swings. I already cut my position sizes in half, so I feel comfortable at the moment.

__________________
aka jbfx

Looking around.

This guy trades very similar to the strategy I'm using.

4h SWING EURUSD LIVE Trading

Higher TF, looking for trend, simple entries. Going for that HOME RUN. I think I'm a little bit more aggressive than he is though.

__________________
aka jbfx

I like 4H swing trading , it's good for busy people coz it's only takes 2 or 3 trades a week , just watch your chart for a while wait for confirmation and let it go then watch again next 4 H

===================
Forex Indicators Collection

^ I agree. Prasxz.

You jump into the trend, and if it goes against you, it hurts so you take your lick and come back tomorrow. But if it goes your way, then it is sweet molasses and you're making some good pips. One has to have a big stomach for drawdown to trade on the 4H TF, and I know it is not for everyone. I do feel it requires a lot less work because it allows you to check every few hours, and if you set a stop and target profit after entry, you can pretty much walk away (by setting up a trading management type EA).

Wake up in the morning, and see which side gets hit. Hopefully, luck and a little bit of experience/edge is on your side.

__________________
aka jbfx

I have a funny feeling that Euro and Pound is going to break down soon. The Swissie looks to break up. The reason is because of that weird spike we had at the US Open today. That is a classic bull trap on the Euro and Pound, and a bear trap on the Swissie.

They sucked in all the buyers on the Euro when it broke out of that triangle to the upside, and probably cleared a lot of stops of the shorts. Then they reversed it back, and got all the longs trapped. The most damage now would be move down below the support it is currently sitting on. But if that support breaks, it will break in a big way...so I'm suspecting they will move the price down and back up to scare the longs into closing their positions.

__________________
aka jbfx

The Swissie broke up already. It is in the perfect uptrend channel.

__________________
aka jbfx

So I won't be trading anymore this week or next week most likely. Too much influence by what is going on in the equity markets right now, it's a blind roller coaster. Swisse broke up into its up channel after the bear trap, typical.

I'll be tweaking some stuff.

I'm actually considering to create an independent strategy for the RentASignal service for some beer money. Still kind of on the fence about this because it may be just too much work. I have an idea of what I want accomplished. It will most likely require quite a bit of time to get it done, and will probably involve discretionary elements and something to do with trend scalping. And the testing phase will probably be either done privately or as a free section of the RAS service.

__________________
aka jbfx

I've noticed recently that the spreads are all over the place for many brokers. I'm strongly considering to add a spread filter to my trading strategies to try to mitigate this problem. I have no business placing trades if the spread widens to a point where it is not advantageous to trade at all.

Especially if I'm building a trend "scalper", I would hate to see the spread get too big.

Anyways, just going through my thought process before the build. I really don't want to use a set stoploss because usually stoplosses on a scalper needs to be much bigger than the target profit. You need give it room to roam. So most likely, I will use a poor reward to risk ratio. Definitely not the conventional advice, I know, but hey...I don't even use a stoploss in my own trading. I'm thinking an initial 1:4 reward to risk ratio (meaning if my SL is 200, then my target profit is going to be 50), but this ratio will change as I manage the risk as the trade goes along...moving the trailing stop closer.

__________________
aka jbfx