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I applaud your ability to close your account and take a step back to understand your strategy, but out of curiosity have you gone through a detail analysis of the trades during those downslops and account for any unusual activity out of your norm?
This is something I do during terrible parts of my trading- I thought its a good practice as it really does help identify some of the major reasons- although I do not know you trading method personally, if its decently mechanical I would go through each trade one by one and set up a list of environment factors along with trading decisions factors.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kenny Rogers
Last week was just terrible. Sigh. My hare account was flying high, and then it hit some unfavorable market condition...sucks. I posted the balance chart of my Hare Account since the start of the month. I wish I could have stopped earlier when I was actually up. Right now, I have shut the Hare Account strategy down, and need to re-evaluate what I'm doing.
^ Well, the strategy on the Hare Account is quite risky because I am trying to be aggressive on this account. It's a new strategy. I was up almost 80% on the account at one point, but obviously it did not last. Real bummer. The strategy is based on a type of reversion to the mean and its standard deviation with a group of currencies being traded at the same time. This strategy opens a lot of trades and also trades everything including the exotics with large spreads, and I believe one of the weaknesses of this strategy is the broker's varying spreads during slow times. Therefore, I should not be trading it on Sundays because I've noticed the spreads widening to unacceptable levels at the start of trading. Also, it seems this strategy moves around the mean on both sides, so now I have a 1:1 ratio...and it is hitting my SL and TP randomly.
And many of my losses are hitting their stop losses, and quickly turning back into my favor after I've been taken out. It has been frustrating to say the least.
I'm playing with widening the stoploss to 3-4 times the target profit on a different demo, which gives me the crapola rewards to risk ratio. But I think this gives a lot more wiggle room for the reversion to happen, sometimes, even I have to compromise with the market's behavior...and going against what I believe of having positive RR ratio. This is why I will need some time to verify my results, re-evaluate my trading philosphy, and come back to the game at a later date. Not sure if this will help the strategy to be more consistent. Right now, it is way too wild. And it's real money, so it does hurt quite a bit.
So I really do need to shut up now, and get focused on trading. Kenny Rogers is not a happy camper right now.
__________________
aka jbfx
Last edited by Kenny Rogers; 01-19-2009 at 08:46 AM.
There will now be 2 different strategies being traded at the same time on my Account #1. I added the same strategy as the tortoise account to Account #1. It should not conflict with each other, and hopefully will provide a smoother equity curve going forward.
Account #2 is activated, and I also put a different trend strategy on it.
Tortoise account is still chugging along, and the Hare account is in a holding pattern as I test out my new theories on demo.
Losses continue to mount across all accounts. This has not been a very good start to the new year.
I think I'm still profitable overall for the month, but it has definitely stalled a bit as I haven't been able to ride a good trend without getting knocked out before the move.
If this downturn continues, I may need to hit the knockoffs Johnnie's.
Hi forum:
I think FX trading is not just good or bad luck, I think all your research is important, your academy formation is very important.
Dennis Jhonson
Yale
University
What the hell happened to the financial advisor job at Deutshe Bank in your previous title. Did you get fired? No problem, now you are part of Yale University? Very impressive. What's next? NASA? Perhaps, you can introduce me to your Aeronautical Space Shuttle Holistic Application Team.
Riding this Euro uptrend. Hopefully, it gets bigger than it currently is. But the market has been fickle lately, and I haven't seen the type of extension to really get the Home Run trade yet. Sitting tight, and strapping in. It would be nice to see 1.34, although 1.3375 is a strong possibility. Let's hope the London Open brings in a new push in my direction.
__________________
aka jbfx
Last edited by Kenny Rogers; 01-27-2009 at 06:05 AM.
The Euro has pulled back into the support base now after its rise. Now we see if this is a real good trend or another half arse willy nilly move. If it is decent trend, it should consolidate at this level to build a base and take off like rocket later. It might even do a quick dip below support to trap all the bears. This is what might cause me to get shaken out, I hope not.
As you can see last week, it was really rough. Only took a couple bottles of Johnnie to dull the pain. I think it was close to a -$7k drop last week. Finally caught a trend, and rode it back to relief. Hopefully, the curve is going to get smoother heading up.
Perhaps, you can introduce me to your Aeronautical Space Shuttle Holistic Application Team.
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