EUR/USD Open discussion - Page 6

masemus · #51 (**permalink**) 07-04-2008, 08:11 PM

.....qqq trapped @ H4 TrendLine

ukm007 · #52 (**permalink**) 07-04-2008, 11:18 PM

Hi,
Just a little late discussion about the ECB Interest Rate.

It is so weird that some trader is still relay on the indicator when it comes to news trade. I have been follow some forum that teach people how to trade news. It seem quite difficult to trade news especially if you can't reach the data after 5 minute it release. But still it is so fun to learn all those things.

One of the commentator on the forum say that, even though the ECB is going to raise the rates, EURUSD is going to head south. So i'm quite confused there because when Interest Rates is high, then the EURUSD is going high. We also know that technically (on the chart), it actually pass the triple high. So, I also though that the EURUSD is going for 1.59-1.60 again, forming double top, and then head way down.

But fundamentally, everyone is talking that EUR is already 30%(if I'm not mistaken) higher than usual. So most comment I heard is that even though the ECB is raise the rates, there are a lot of people want to take a chance of profit by selling EURUSD. So that's is what happen on Thursday.

Personally, I think that the EURUSD is going to head south. But at the same times, the price is oil is hiking. We all know that when the oil price is hike, then it is bad for USD and JPY. Maybe EUR zone economy is going to be worse than USD in near future.

Well, that's is just my opinion. Don't take it seriously. I'm not the economic expert after all.

TheRumpledOne · #53 (**permalink**) 07-04-2008, 11:42 PM

eurusd_20080704_001.gif

You can see the EURUSD hit the upper fib projections on the daily and pulled back.

_TRO_SR_FIB_PROJ INDICATOR ATTACHED.

p.s. masemus thanks for sharing your code.

TheRumpledOne · #54 (**permalink**) 07-04-2008, 11:49 PM

eurusd_20080704_002.gif

Quote:

Originally Posted by masemus

yup, i draw manualy
:: it would be nice if you/someone can make it an auto TrendLine.

-------------------

You wanted an auto trend line.

The aqua/magenta lines are the most recent.

TRO_WSOWROTL INDICATOR ATTACHED.

TheRumpledOne · #55 (**permalink**) 07-05-2008, 12:05 AM

I made a little mod to the JoGet indicator:

Code:

extern int RSI_Period = 2;
extern int RSI_Price_Type = 0;
extern int myRSI_OB = 95;
extern int myRSI_MP = 50;
extern int myRSI_OS = 05;

I created input for the overbought, midpoint and oversold levels.

I like using RSI(2) with 95/05 for overbought/oversold.

Thanks again for sharing.

TRO+JoGET_bs+ CODE ATTACHED.

p.s. I renamed it so the original code doesn't get stepped on.

prasxz · #56 (**permalink**) 07-05-2008, 12:52 AM

well said ukm007, that's why eur going down

===================
Forex Indicators Collection

mp6140 · #57 (**permalink**) 07-05-2008, 02:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ukm007

Hi,
Just a little late discussion about the ECB Interest Rate.

It is so weird that some trader is still relay on the indicator when it comes to news trade. I have been follow some forum that teach people how to trade news. It seem quite difficult to trade news especially if you can't reach the data after 5 minute it release. But still it is so fun to learn all those things.
================================================== ===

the only real indicators needed on news is the support and resist areas and perhaps a combo RSI/STOCHASTICS indicator to back up your decisions, especially as the direction the news trade will take INITIALLY is in the same direction the banks are setting up for -- ie: if the banks want to go long the news, they will drop the price before the news is released, simply to give themselves MORE upside movement. Often, if the price is not yet at the low of the H1 or H4 (it depends on the time the news will be released) the banks will CONTINUE to drop the price (even if GOOD news) so as to take the price DOWN to support, and then go long !

Much of this is very time dependent, but to amuse yourself watch what happens BEFORE the news, shortly AFTER the news, and then a few days later !

One of the commentator on the forum say that, even though the ECB is going to raise the rates, EURUSD is going to head south. So i'm quite confused there because when Interest Rates is high, then the EURUSD is going high. We also know that technically (on the chart), it actually pass the triple high. So, I also though that the EURUSD is going for 1.59-1.60 again, forming double top, and then head way down.

They dropped the prices based more on the US news than the EURO news, held steady (more or less) during the US holiday, and while there should certainly be some "come back" from this drop, the DAILY timeframe is showing a SHORT position to 5363 - 5303 with YOUR EXPECTED UPSIDE MOVE happening at that point. The currency TOPPED in late april and has been trending DOWN since then seeking a bottom to what is a normal up and down cycle WITHIN its longer bullish uptrend.

Remember well, what goes up, must come down and vice versa and youre watching a nice example of that right now !

But fundamentally, everyone is talking that EUR is already 30%(if I'm not mistaken) higher than usual. So most comment I heard is that even though the ECB is raise the rates, there are a lot of people want to take a chance of profit by selling EURUSD. So that's is what happen on Thursday.

What happened on Thursday was entirely predictable and visible on the charts, as the price was held steady going into the Asian markets and moved HIGHER going into the US market --- price movement tends to ALWAYS give away whats going to happen, and then the brain and the Linear Regression Channels or hand drawn trend lines show what happens when the initial move fullfills !

Personally, I think that the EURUSD is going to head south. But at the same times, the price is oil is hiking. We all know that when the oil price is hike, then it is bad for USD and JPY. Maybe EUR zone economy is going to be worse than USD in near future.

For what appears to be eons now, when the US got a headache, the rest of the world catches the flu --- whether or not traders on computers will change that now will be most interesting to watch ! My own personal opinion is that the euro will settle out at approx 1.5 - 1.6 for a while going into the future, as the economies of Europe are growing faster than the US, who spent the last 60 years way ahead of everyone else as Europe rebuilt after a devestating war. Couple that with third world countries eager to be first world countries, and the GROWTH (but not necessarily power) will be with other countries --- should all even out in the end though, especially if the trilateral commission has its way, and it appears they do !

Well, that's is just my opinion. Don't take it seriously. I'm not the economic expert after all.

the economic "experts" rarely get it right, but the man/woman in the street can definitely tell you when things are not right, long ahead of the academics it seems !

Let us see how it plays out because, when in doubt, a hedge may be your best friend !

LOL

enjoy and trade well

mp

TheRumpledOne · #58 (**permalink**) 07-05-2008, 05:50 AM

!!!!_eu.gif

Looks like the fib retrace is in effect.

_TRO_DYNAMIC_FIBS_SR indicator attached.

mp6140 · #59 (**permalink**) 07-05-2008, 07:41 AM

yuletide greetings

ukm007 · #60 (**permalink**) 07-05-2008, 10:44 AM

Hi,
I think what was happen on Thursday is not actually related by US news. If you look at the data again, the main concern for all trader is unemployment rates of US and also Non-Farm Payrolls.

At 11.45PM (GMT), the ECB release the news. For half an hour, the price drop significantly.
At 12.30PM(GMT), the US news comes in. Unemployment Rates 5.5% vs 5.4%. This news is not quite strong enough to buy EURUSD. So most news trader don't ever care about this. But, Nonfarm Payrolls come out at -62K vs -55K. Now this is a good number. This is should be a bullish for EURUSD right? Am I right?
Because all over the time, when Nonfarm Payrolls come out lower than expected, everyone is selling USD. It sure does happen on USDJPY. After that, USDJPY retrace back to the north because everyone is still bearish EURUSD.

Do you think that EURUSD is going for 1.6 again in July? But I think, in a couple of days, it will going south, finding support at 1.5300-1.5370.If it is true that EUR economy is much more promising than USD, than it will somehow reach 1.600. At this point, maybe ECB will intervene.

This is the most weird news trade ever happen to me. This is so exciting. Hehe.....

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