Live Testing reports - Page 51

gforcejunke · #**501** (**permalink**) 02-26-2007, 02:11 AM

Hi all,
Both FXDD & IBFX Live, 15m, Mode3, Default settings exc EUR/JPY (Bertbin settings since last Thurs)
GBP/$
$/CHF
$/JPY
EUR/JPY

bertbin · #**502** (**permalink**) 02-26-2007, 02:30 AM

Hi AZBO

We got some "distorsion" on EUR/JPY (FXDD account)
Can you send me your statement of this week to check why.
Thks

fikko · #**503** (**permalink**) 02-26-2007, 03:27 AM

Hi daraknor / bertbin / alamjani,

I didn't talk too much, but I do serious testing based on my own hypothesis. The result is quite good for the last month

Initial Deposit: $1,365.65
Current Balance: $3,530.70
Profit: $2,165.05 (158%)
Max Drawdown: 19.79%
Profit Probability: 78.95%

Setting:
Version 5.7.0
Mode: 1
Currency: USDJPY only
Risk: 30%

Setting is using optimized predicted future, not optimizing the past. I changed the setting every 2 weeks.

A lot of babysitting the trade. Watching it grows and cutting when it drops. One that has to be optimized is the traders themselves.

JPY has been hit by Bank of Japan statement last week. That's why eurojpy doesn't perform well. My USDJPY is showing excellent result last week.

SMA 2/19
OSMA 5/30/2
FP/SP 28/10/0.0030/0.020
Use only for this week. Expired March 3, 2007.

All of these is still theory. Let's see if I can make it stable for next 2 months.

AZBOfin · #**504** (**permalink**) 02-26-2007, 03:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bertbin

Hi AZBO

We got some "distorsion" on EUR/JPY (FXDD account)
Can you send me your statement of this week to check why.
Thks

Real Time Statements (5min interval)

IBFX: http://www.azbofin.com/azboforex/1263777/statement.htm
FXDD: http://www.azbofin.com/azboforex/501521/statement.htm

Detailed Statements (weekly update)

IBFX: http://www.azbofin.com/azboforex/126...dStatement.htm
FXDD: http://www.azbofin.com/azboforex/501...dStatement.htm

i started another demo with just EURJPY (default settings) on monday. on 02/20 17:00 (fxdd time) it executed a short trade and on 02/21 15:15 another one. both times only the first of the three trades had been executed because of an error 129 (invalid price). don't know what's going on. i'll keep an eye on it.

AZBOfin

AZBOfin · #**505** (**permalink**) 02-26-2007, 04:03 AM

fikko:

not too shabby, i must say. keep it up, we'll see how it goes over time.
please do yourself a favor and reduce risk to 5%.

AZBOfin

bertbin · #**506** (**permalink**) 02-26-2007, 11:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AZBOfin

Real Time Statements (5min interval)

IBFX: http://www.azbofin.com/azboforex/1263777/statement.htm
FXDD: http://www.azbofin.com/azboforex/501521/statement.htm

Detailed Statements (weekly update)

IBFX: http://www.azbofin.com/azboforex/126...dStatement.htm
FXDD: http://www.azbofin.com/azboforex/501...dStatement.htm

i started another demo with just EURJPY (default settings) on monday. on 02/20 17:00 (fxdd time) it executed a short trade and on 02/21 15:15 another one. both times only the first of the three trades had been executed because of an error 129 (invalid price). don't know what's going on. i'll keep an eye on it.

AZBOfin

Ooooooops ! My fault !!! In Excel statement, I mixt my eurjpy for your eur/usd !!!!!! Sry !

Btw at 11h30 GMT, we have a bad start this week...

bertbin · #**507** (**permalink**) 02-26-2007, 12:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fikko

Hi daraknor / bertbin / alamjani,

I didn't talk too much, but I do serious testing based on my own hypothesis. The result is quite good for the last month

Initial Deposit: $1,365.65
Current Balance: $3,530.70
Profit: $2,165.05 (158%)
Max Drawdown: 19.79%
Profit Probability: 78.95%

Setting:
Version 5.7.0
Mode: 1
Currency: USDJPY only
Risk: 30%

Setting is using optimized predicted future, not optimizing the past. I changed the setting every 2 weeks.

A lot of babysitting the trade. Watching it grows and cutting when it drops. One that has to be optimized is the traders themselves.

JPY has been hit by Bank of Japan statement last week. That's why eurojpy doesn't perform well. My USDJPY is showing excellent result last week.

SMA 2/19
OSMA 5/30/2
FP/SP 28/10/0.0030/0.020
Use only for this week. Expired March 3, 2007.

All of these is still theory. Let's see if I can make it stable for next 2 months.

Congrats ! Perhaps a way to increase results of Phoenix...

daraknor · #**508** (**permalink**) 02-26-2007, 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fikko

Setting is using optimized predicted future, not optimizing the past. I changed the setting every 2 weeks.

A lot of babysitting the trade. Watching it grows and cutting when it drops. One that has to be optimized is the traders themselves.

If you can describe the exit strategy in more detail, I might be able to write code that does it for you. My windows machine is dead at the moment :/

fikko · #**509** (**permalink**) 02-27-2007, 04:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AZBOfin

fikko:

not too shabby, i must say. keep it up, we'll see how it goes over time.
please do yourself a favor and reduce risk to 5%.

AZBOfin

Yes 30% is actually too high. The last month performance is actually even better than phoenix contest. I am thinking if it is ended like Phoenix Contest as well... Hopefully not..

In the real money, I will put only $1000, it is the maximum amount that I can afford to lose! If It is gone, I can still smile..

I still can enjoy my meal!

If 1 month it can hit 100% profit, or 2 months, then I will withdraw the $1000, and let the profit grows. I will not have any losses.

That's why using 30% is a good strategy actually, but we need to be more focus on drawdown.

fikko · #**510** (**permalink**) 02-27-2007, 06:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by daraknor

If you can describe the exit strategy in more detail, I might be able to write code that does it for you. My windows machine is dead at the moment :/

Dear Darak,

Yes, that’s true that Phoenix has a good entry, but at exit, it is not really good.

First of all, you need to “read” which signal is correct and which one is not. As phoniex has a lot of wrong signals.

Remember, Phoenix is a train! You can go with the first signal and follow the train. But the train is not always right. Sometimes you have to change the train.

What I call a train is a set of correct signal with 42 pips distance. Phoenix supposedly only open 1 trade each time.

Rule of reading signal:
(1) When there is a signal, all next signals are not considered (wrong) until 42 pips!
The picture is showing a SELL on 23 Feb 04:30, and there is a lot of BUY, but you can’t consider it is right signal until 42 pips.

(2) The next BUY signal is on 23 Feb 22:30, This considered as a correct signal as a train

(3) Then there is another signal SELL on 26 Feb 05:30. This should not be considered
But the price is moving into SELL direction. As you see in the picture it is a strong sell. So I cut off the BUY at 30 pips loss, and I open a SELL. I think the TP should be max 20 pips. (Remaining of 42 pips – 30 pips)

Basically, we have to watch each signal produced by Phoenix, and thinking that we are in the correct train or not. Or we have to change train.

30 pips losses is quite good compare to TP/SL 42/84. With 30% risk, it will be only 7% drawdown. ANd it will be covered by the opposite possition.

Here, in my trading I loss 29 pips on the buy trade and gain 26 pips on Sell trade. So I just loss 3 pips!

(4) Sometimes when the market is trending up high, just increase TP to 50 pips. For BUY I think you can possible get 50 pips profit. But for sell it is only 42 pips maximum.

(5) I do sometimes open manual order following the indicator. I wait until it is really at the max/min wave, and then place manual order.

If you are able to read the graphic correctly, then you will know if the setting is not right anymore. If it happened, just do not trade for the whole week, just watch it. Next week, we optimize with new setting.