Hi All,
Forex vs Poker?
This is my question.
What is the different?
Bongo

I was just discussing about this with one friend of mine who is a professional poker player, after a long talk we came to a conclusion that poker is always based on limited set of probabilities whereas forex is much harder to predict and there are really no definite ways to calculate actual probabilities for forex.

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having been trading for 30 and trading specifically forex for 7 years, I find that statement as far off base as anything Ive ever heard.

although you may not yet recognize it, forex is a vehicle with extremely strict support and resistance areas, a need to maintain trend, even if blown off track by news or greed of the banks, and is essentially predictable as heck !

if it werent, I wouldnt be able to place a trade at 6PM, EST that wont be hit til 5AM EST and come to the exact final price before the brokers reverse the price ! (I prove that daily over at the forumn I teach at !)

It is only the inexperienced who would put forth such a notion, as to them it looks random and crazy, but in reality once you learn a little, you can see how precise it really is and while its impossible to go into how it works in this space and time, I just gotta say youre WAY off base even considering there might be a basis of comparison !

enjoy and trade well

mp

__________________
Within the great hall at Elfinore stands a wondrous coffer, precisely four cubits square and securely latched against the outside world. Inside that repository, shut away from impertinent eyes, abides many an intriquing trading secret garnered from around the world and over the ages !

As a child, i used to watch from the darkness as the secrets were debated and annotated by the elders. No one there held a single thought of my presence -- BUT I KNOW WHERE THEY HID THE KEY !!

I will qoute a friend "Project1972" who qouted Larry Williams

The Farmer, the Gambler, and the Speculator.

There are only three or four rules to follow. But .........you and me we overdo the game........and end up pouring money in, good after bad.

How come? What can we do about it ? At last weekend's seminar in Florida Jake Bernstein shared a very telling story. It goes like this:

Several years ago Jake was speaking to a brokerage firm gathering of farmers, ranchers and a few speculators. After his speech he was asked if he'd like to meet the one customer who made money. they said he wasn't very bright, but made money. Always.

The old farmer and Jake hit it off pretty well, so the gent asked Jake if he'd like to learn his system "Sure," Jake replied. "I'd like to see what you do."

With that, the crusty, aged trader opened up his chart of Pork Bellies and brought out a pendulum on a string....held it over the belly chart and advise Jake "If it swings up and Down on the page, I buy 'em...........if it swing cross ways I sell 'em. There it is, Jake, Now ya seen my system."

Jake stepped back, thought for a minute, and then asked, "That's all, there's nothing else to it ?"

"Mmmm," mumbled the market wizard. "There is one other thing, but it don't mean much, I think. If I got a loss at the end of the day, I get out of them things."

I mulled over this wisdom on the delayed flight home (a bomb threat forced us to switch to another airline) and while driving up I-5 listening to Country Western music a 1:15 AM heard-I mean really heard- Kenny Rogers' song "The Gambler" It struck me that everyone else has focused on his words, "Know when to hold them, know when to fold them"....but the real message I heard was in the refrain, "You gotta know what to throw away, know what to keep."

That dumb old farmer must have written Kenny's song. A gambler knows what to throw away....bad cards. Traders might want to listen to the farmer's and the gambler's work the next time they want to play speculator.""

You got my comment wrong.

Poker has a very easy way to calculate probabilities if your hand is winning or not. It has limited set of 52 cards that are always dealt with exactly the same way, exactly the same winning hands in exactly the same winning order in each game. And exactly the same set of rounds after which the game stops and begins from zero again (With different account sizes of course).

There is no such formula in forex. Poker is really a game of probabilities whereas forex is something much more complex (as are all the markets). And at the market, rules change. In poker they don't.

Note that I didn't say Forex is random, I only said that you can calculate probabilities with certainty with specified formula in poker but not in forex.

Hi

There are definite ways of actual calculating forex probabilities, but one needs to look at fundamental anylysis ,economies and interest rate cycles.And I have no time to explain how and why.

OILFXPRO

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ah yes --- when posting I was looking at both yours and the original post, and ended up combining both within my feeble mind ---

to be honest, I havent a clue as to probabilities (and to be honest will NEVER have a clue or even care, since its of no import to trading) but to the original poster is the direction of my post, and I hold to its reality assesment of the Forex mkt !

my apologies for my missed interpretation, but "gambling" and "forex" ??

There aint no comparison imo !

enjoy and trade well

mp

__________________
Within the great hall at Elfinore stands a wondrous coffer, precisely four cubits square and securely latched against the outside world. Inside that repository, shut away from impertinent eyes, abides many an intriquing trading secret garnered from around the world and over the ages !

As a child, i used to watch from the darkness as the secrets were debated and annotated by the elders. No one there held a single thought of my presence -- BUT I KNOW WHERE THEY HID THE KEY !!

Wikipedia Poker:

Poker is a popular type of card game in which players bet on the value of the card combination ("hand") in their possession, by placing a bet into a central pot. The winner is the one who holds the hand with the highest value according to an established hand rankings hierarchy, or otherwise the player who remains "in the hand" after all others have folded (the player who makes an un-called bet.).
Poker has many variations, all following a similar pattern of play. Depending on the variant, hands may be formed using cards which are concealed from others, or from a combination of concealed cards and community cards.
Other games that use poker hand rankings may likewise be referred to as "poker." Video poker is a single-player computer game that functions much like a slot machine.



Wikipedia Forex:
The foreign exchange (currency or forex or FX) market exists wherever one currency is traded for another. It is by far the largest financial market in the world, and includes trading between large banks, central banks, currency speculators, multinational corporations, governments, and other financial markets and institutions. The average daily trade in the global forex and related markets currently is over US$ 3 trillion.[1] Retail traders (individuals) are a small fraction of this market and may only participate indirectly through brokers or banks, and are subject to forex scams[2] [3].

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Life is a game of odds and probabilities, wether its poker or forex, you just need to know how to stack them in your favour...Unfortunately the answers are right infront of you, but some cant see the wood for the trees..

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in my normally infamous "dutch uncle" role, allow me to say the above is the most juvenile, misinterpreted and just plain incorrect statement Ive heard today, although I must admit the day is young -- you may be saved !

WHAT is wrong with you people ???

ah, never the mind --- a lack of experience in the forex market makes one THINK it deals in odds or probabilities, but there are simply NO odds in forex -- its a relatively simple, trend driven trading vehicle whose movements are apparent to anyone who has actually spent some time on LEARNING it, and not using some silly EA because of lack of knowledge !

Maybe Im not angry at YOU in particular, but at the idea and concept that one can walk into a massive industry, with no knowledge of culture or methodology and walk away with a fortune, or if they lose (which they will ALWAYS do with that attitude), they then talk about the crooked brokers, the ODDS, the PROBABILITIES and a lot of hokum and hocus - pocus !

People, youre talking about what i do for a living as well as handling others accounts, and youre talking drivel !

Aside from my desire to try and teach rookies how to survive which keeps me coming back to these threads, when hearing this BS I get pretty tired of trying to show how the market works, so go on with the junk, amuse each other with silly conversation, and never bother to learn how forex works --- fine with me cause I'll be on the other side of your trade, enjoying your losses !

enjoy and trade well

mp

__________________
Within the great hall at Elfinore stands a wondrous coffer, precisely four cubits square and securely latched against the outside world. Inside that repository, shut away from impertinent eyes, abides many an intriquing trading secret garnered from around the world and over the ages !

As a child, i used to watch from the darkness as the secrets were debated and annotated by the elders. No one there held a single thought of my presence -- BUT I KNOW WHERE THEY HID THE KEY !!