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As a matter of interest, the Open to Low for yesterday was 277 pips meaning that if you were able to enter a Short order at the opening quote and let the market run its full day course, your profit in pips would have been at least 200-250 pips for the day.
I went to sleep much earlier at 10:00 pm (Malaysian Time) last nite, so I missed the boat.
Though I have just joined this forum, I went through your postings since Day 1 and am very impressed with your writings.
You don't talk rubbish. I just cannot believe there are guys like you around. You not only make your recommendations but also give your logic for them. Too technical for me. Like someone said before: Are you Real, a Pro, or just a Cyberspace forex robot? Will you be asking your readers to subscribe later on when you have your own website. Please don't. No one likes it.
Price movements for these two currency pairs are rather slow this morning.
GBPJPY: Looking at the Open to Low for this currrency pair for the month of July, on the days when prices move down, it ranges from 240 pips to 600 pips. These are RUNAWAY down days. That is why I like to encourage readers to Let the Market Run its course to capture the most pips profit but make sure you have sufficient balance deposit to withstand any onslaughts.
AUDUSD: This is NOT a volatile currency pair Therefore the range for its Open to HIGH (since we are Long on it) is around 100 to 160 pips.
For each currency pair we trade, we need to know HOW FAR CAN IT GO if it is our day.
I have closed my position, making a small gain of 20 pips.
I do not like the latest developments in the commodities market. Commodities prices (incl. oil) have retreated and likely to do so over the next few days - which means both the Aussie and Canadian Dollars are likely to weaken too.
Get out when prices are not in line with economic reality.
1. Both the Aussie Dollar and the Canadian Dollar are reacting to the fall in their commodity prices. So, for the moment, do not enter any trades until prices have settled.
2. For GBPJPY, it is trying to find direction. Don't do any short selling yet NOR do any buying. If it goes up, wait for the counter-trend to exhaust itself, then you can SHORT. But because more than half a day is gone, you must be prepared to be a Position Holder.
If I have not gone to sleep yet, I shall try to update you guys when there is an opportunity to act.
The excitement over the last 3 days has died down.
Today, attached are 2 EW charts from Aget for GBPJPY and AUDUSD.
AUDUSD This currency pair is NO LONGER to be considered a Buy candidate.
The dynamics of the market have changed. When the time comes, we should be shorting this currency pair.
The fundamentals have changed the playgame. As long as commodity prices keep falling, the Aussie Dollar will weaken against the US Dollar.
Technicals: The length of Wave 5 is the same as that for Wave 1 - a Fibonacci ratio of 1 whilst Wave 3 has been an extension. Meaning Wave 5 is more or less over. I shall wait for further confirmation signs before shorting it.
GBPJPY: This currency pair is still a good SHORT. But today I shall be using a Delay tactic to Sell on Rally. Just wait and wait for a rally, then short it.
Fundamentals and Technicals remain the same.
I do not use support and resistance levels as a guide. I look at the tick movements of a 5 min chart to tell me and the candlestick formations. Shall let u know once I have placed/executed a sell order on the spot.
General As you will realize now, CHARTS ALONE DO NOT DICTATE PRICS as they are historical. It is the latest economic developments that are happening now that changes the supply and demand situation. That was what we saw in the Aussie and Canadian Dollars. Once the news broke out that commodity prices were retreating, zoom - these two currency pairs reversed gear. Personally, I don't fancy commodity currencies as they are subject to governmental policies, weather conditions and inventory levels, natural disasters, bla, bla, bla.
Do trade cautiously otherwise you get burned - be slow to get in but ever ready to get out when uncertainty sets in.
Regards
Kenneth
Last edited by kenneth37; 07-30-2009 at 01:48 AM.
Reason: spelling mistake for inventory
I have just SHORT this currency pair at 155.61; Today very likely I shall be doing an intra-day trading.
Looking at the 5 min chart, I believe the earlier rally this morning could have exhausted itself. Of course, there is no guarantee that it will not rally again later.
Linear Mode
