Welcome to Forex-TSD!, one of the largest Forex forums worldwide, where you will be able to find the most complete and reliable Forex information imaginable.
From the list below, select the forum that you want to visit and register to post, as many times you want. Its absolutely free. Click here for registering on Forex-TSD.
Exclusive Forum
The Exclusive Forum is the only paid section. Once you subscribe, you will get free access to real cutting-edge Trading Systems (automated and not), Indicators, Signals, Articles, etc., that will help and guide you, in ways that you could only imagine, with your Forex trading.
Elite Section
Get access to private discussions, specialized support, indicators and trading systems reported every week.
Advanced Elite Section
For professional traders, trading system developers and any other member who may need to use and/or convert, the most cutting-edge exclusive indicators and trading systems for MT4 and MT5.
Article II – Elaborating on Selecting the Currency Pair to trade
In selecting which currency pair to trade, you need to compare the two contenders in that currency pair.
You need to look at their economies first, then look at their chart patterns and Elliott Wave patterns before jumping in.
For examples:
GBPJPY: The Pound is a weaker opponent because of its deteriorating economy, whereas on the other the Yen has now surfaced as a stronger contender, especially since there is a growing demand for Yen from emerging nations.
With this overall picture, you then check your EW charts which show it is in its Primary Wave 5 downtrend. Fundamentals and Technicals are synchronized, walking in the same direction holding hands.
You therefore SHORT the Pound (indirectly you are buying the stronger Yen) or you are selling the Pound because it is a weaker contender.
GBPUSD:
The Pound against the US Dollar – the Pound will find a worthy opponent in the US Dollar – a worthy opponent.
The US (though it is still in recession) has come out with some aggressive policies to improve their economy/to slow down recessionary pressures, etc. And President Obama means business.
In this context, I see the US Dollar as a stronger and worthy opponent and the Pound as a slightly weaker contender.
If your conclusion is that both countries are equal contenders, then it is likely to be a DRAW. Then Stay Aside and let these guys fight their guts out.
What do the charts tell us??? The Daily EW charts show it is on a Primary Wave 5 Uptrend, whereas the Weekly EW charts show the Primary Wave is a DOWNTRREND and it is purely in a CORRECTIVE WAVE 4 (though it is going up). I would therefore be careful on this currency pair, as they are not synchronized. I do not touch Corrective Waves 2 and 4 even though one can make some money out of it.
General: My choice of currency pairs to play are based on such studies of fundamentals and technicals.
Hope this will help you guys to crystallize your thinking on this issue.
Regards
Kenneth.
Last edited by kenneth37; 07-27-2009 at 02:13 AM.
Reason: wrong spelling for patterns
Looking at the 5 min MT4 charts for these 2 currency pairs, although USDCAD is conforming with the downward EW chart, the GBPJPY appears to be in a up contra-trend mood.
However, the ACTUAL ACTION has NOT come in yet as the volumes transacted so far is well below their daily average.
When that volume comes, we can then see clearer where GBPJPY is going. I am still of the opinion that based on the mid-term and longer-term EW chart for GBPJPY, it is still heading south.
Shall update you as and when the action comes.
Regards
Kenneth
Last edited by kenneth37; 07-27-2009 at 07:35 AM.
Reason: left out the word Not
Attached are the EW charts for USDCAD, GBPJPY and AUDUSD.
Today I am turning CAUTIOUS, as there are some changes in the signs in the EW charts.
USDCAD: I have closed my position making 40 pips profit this morning. Was monitoring closely last nite. Although on a few occasions, my profit showed a maximum of 70 pips, I did not close, hoping that the American session will push it down. But that did not happen.
Too slow for my taste. It is still in a Primary Downtrend but action not fast enough – no momentum.
GBPJPY: For today, you need to turn CAUTIOUS also, as the technical signs have changed though it is still in its PRIMARY WAVE DOWN plus UK's dismal economic recovery.
You will observe in today's EW chart, WE DO NOT SEE ANY MORE THE INTERMEDIATE WAVE LABELS, as was the case in yesterday's EW charts. Why – Aget always take into consideration the latest situation.
I am hanging on but now considering closing the second order when it registers a profit. I had a few chances yesterday but was looking for the American session to push the Pound down. It did not happen. Maybe I cut my loss around 60 pips for my first order. Did not act yesterday also. Of course, with the event behind us, we can say anything to justify. Past is Past – so I am more ready what to do today.
AUDUSD: This is the only positive currency pair I saw. Like USDCAD, it can turn out to be a tortoise. I take my chance and put an order for 0.5 lot for this currency since it is in PRIMARY WAVE 5 UP. I go for intra-day. Will be happy if my profit is around 40-60 pips.
I shall update you as and when I see significant developments.
Good trading
Kenneth
Last edited by kenneth37; 07-28-2009 at 11:16 AM.
Reason: spelling mistakes
Although I have closed my positions for these 2 currency pairs and made a total of around 80+ pips, both these continued their trend as per the EW charts - the AUDUSD going up and the USDCAD going down.
The only pair the GBPJPY has not performed the downpath of its Primary downtrend I am still holding on.
Latest news from CNBC - Australia Economic Risk now more balanced. Read the news yourself if you want to.
No wonder the Aussie Dollar has ben quietly edging up against the US Dollar. As I mentioned in my postings over the weekend, there cannot be any sustained price movements without any economic developments to support.
If there is nothing to support any price movements, then it is pure speculative in nature and I put a question mark on its ability to sustain itself.
Remember: Economic analysis and Technical analysis go hand in hand.
Today you will b overwhelmed with updates from me one after another - the AUDUSD, USDCAD and now GBPJPY.
The up contra-trend should be over, and the downtrend should continue today. Take a look at your 5 min MT4 chart, the Fibonacci Ratio has now gone beyond the 100% signalling the end of the up contra-trend.
What we saw at 7:48 pm (Malaysian Time) when the Pips to Open was down by 126 pips is, I believe, the 1st wave of attack on the Pound (as the Yen gets stronger), and there is likely to be another round of selling coming.
This opinion has nothing to do with Elliott Wave but based on experience and observation of price behaviours.
Today we shall continue to trade with these two currency pairs, as the technicals have given stronger signals than yesterday.
GBPJPY: TO SHORT.
Technicals: Looking at this EW chart, an Engulfing Bearish Candlestick has appeared, signaling the continuation of the downtrend.
Fundamentals: No changes in what I have written earlier.
AUDUSD: To Buy Long.
Technicals: Wave 3 Top has been penetrated, signaling it is heading higher on its way to Wave 5.
Fundamentals: Australia is in a stronger economic situation than US.
The TPs and the SLs remain as previously given.
General: Second order close this morning made a profit of 71 pips.
First order outstanding 18 pips profit at time of writing. Have not closed yet - let the market run its full course.
Total pips for this week 151 pips ie AUDUSD 40 Pips; USDCAD 40 pips; GBPJPY 70 pips
Position Trading: what was a losing trade last week now turned around to be a profitable trade, as GBPJPY resumed its downward Primary wave down.
The Theory of Trading is there whether you have the guts to follow is another question. It takes time to build up confidence in what you do. So, don't be discouraged but keep at it.
Linear Mode
