The GBP/USD opened Asian trading at around $ 1.9720 and traded up to $1.9727 early in the session falling hard to as low as $1.9666 due to carry trade liquidation and massive GBP/JPY selling. The pair then settled around $1.9770/80 for the remainder of the session. The strong performance of the GBP/USD lately still looks corrective to some analysts and a break below yesterday’s low of $1.9605 might see the down-trend resume.

US confidence recovers. The US Michigan consumer confidence index rose to 80.5 in January from 74.8 which will steady market sentiment towards the US economy to some extent.
Firm RBA comments. The Reserve Bank of Australia governor has called inflation uncomfortably high which will boost the Australian dollar initially
UK sales fall. UK retail sales fell 0.4% in December with the annual increase falling to 2.7%.

Current level-1.4627

The currency pair is in an uptrend unfolding from the 1.2484 bottom and probably ahead of a significant reversal on weekly basis. The technical indicators are rising and the trading is situated above the 50-day and the 200-day SMA, currently projected at 1.4302 and 1.3697.

Our target at 1.4612 has been reached and with the recent bottom at 1.4593 the pair has entered a consolidation phase, that should be limited to 1.4755 before one more leg downwards to 1.4518-23 for completing the whole slide since 1.4922. Around the 1.4520 support zone a reversal can be expected for renewing the generall uptrend towards 1.4966

Attached Images

2008011811.jpg (39.2 KB, 61 views)

Current level-107.07

The pair is in a clear downtrend from the 117.97 top, after completing the broad consolidation since 111.65. The technical indicators are falling on daily basis and trading is situated below the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 113.78 and 117.86.

As expected the downtrend is strong and has reached a new low at 105.93. DJIA is also under heavy pressure and just broke through the dynamic support at 12 540, targeting 12 236 and 11 900 later on.

A consolidation is on the run since 105.93, targeting the important resistance at 108.63. Expect choppy, swing chart pattern limited to 106.59 on the downside and 108.63 on the upside before the next leg unwinds down to 104.03.

Resistance Support
intraday intraweek intraday intraweek
111.91 112.59 106.01 104.03
112.59 115.32 104.03 101.23

Attached Images

2008011812.jpg (121.3 KB, 61 views)

Current level-1.9569

The pair has reversed at 2.1167 and the technical indicators are falling and convergent. Trading is situated between the 50-day MA, projected at 2.0521 and the 200-day SMA, at 2.0078.

Still in the consolidation pattern since 1.9483, probably managed to put a local top at yesterday's 1.9791, but untill 1.9524 holds there is a risk of aiming at 1.9833-55 resistance before reversing the direction. Below 1.9525 will be confirmed a short-term renewing of the downtrend towards 1.9193.

Resistance Support
intraday intraweek intraday intraweek
1.9956 2.0263 1.9533 1.9190
2.0101 2.0575 1.9463 1.8880

Attached Images

2008011813.jpg (115.9 KB, 61 views)

USD/JPY Open 106.42 High 107.87 Low 106.36 Close 106.91

The downward trend for the US Dollar against Japanese Yen continues, after the level 107.85 gave resistance. If that level is broken, next resistances are expected at 108.35 and 109.10. If the downward trend deepens, supports are expected at 106.35, followed by 105.85, and 104.35.

Technical resistance levels: 107.85 108.35 109.10
Technical support levels: 106.35 105.85 104.35

Trading range: 107.70 - 106.95
Trend: Downward
Sell at 107.57 SL 107.87 TP 107.07

Attached Images

USDJPY.gif (24.2 KB, 48 views)

Recent price action on the USD/CHF daily chart, as shown, has been characterized by trendline breakdowns, pullbacks, and then downward continuations. This has occurred at the downtrend resistance line labeled “1” on the chart. It has also happened at the downtrend line labeled “2”. And it may be on the verge of occurring again at the uptrend line labeled “3”. As seen on the chart, after price broke the line at “3,” a new long term low in the pair was reached on Wednesday, followed by a price pullback to the line on Thursday. From this pullback, price drifted back down again on Friday. A continuance of this breakdown-pullback-continuation activity would be confirmed by a break below the long-term low (around 1.0837). If this indeed occurs, new shorts will not have much in the way of known support below this because price has not reached the current lows for years.

Attached Images

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EurUsd failed to print a new high on the weekly chart, it stopped just under the November 23rd high at 1.4966 at the resistance offered by the trendline that connects August and September 2007 swing lows. Breaking the weekly movement on a daily basis we see that Monday the pair pushed higher and although it made a new high on Tuesday after that we had a straight down move supported by a speech from an ECB banker and the fact the EurUsd was trading in an overbought area. The weekly low was made on Thursday at 1.4587 and after that we saw the bearish momentum slowing down and the pair closed just above 1.4600. We maintain our bearish bias for the following days with the mention that Monday is a holiday in the US and trading might be slow; perhaps the most important bearish target is December 20th low at 1.4300 which is also an important support level a place where bullish traders will want to use as a base for a repeat of December's movement.

Resistance Levels

1.5000-- round number
1.4966- Nov 23rd high
1.4735 -Nov 9th High
Support Levels

1.4500- round number
1.4300 - Sept 30th High
1.4000 - Round number
1.3850 - July 24th High

Attached Images

20080120w11.gif (13.9 KB, 49 views)

GbpUsd traded between two important support and resistance levels for the most part of the week, after bouncing from the 1.9550 zone it was rejected by the resistance area above 1.9700 and this scenario repeated 3 times during this past week; only On Thursday the pair managed to spike up toward the 1.9800 level but it lacked strength to stay there and fell back to close the week pips away from the 1.9550 base. A continuation of Friday's move in the next few days will certainly confirm the bearish trend for the last couple of months, a break below 1.9550 will open up the road to 1.9180 as the main bearish target and support level. Conversely a bounce from the 1.9550 that will get the pair trading above 1.9600 will force us once again in the above mentioned range and we will have to look at 1.9670 as the next short term target. Same as in the EurUsd case the pairs trading volume on Monday will be affected by the US holiday and to some extent we could witness some erratic price action or a very mellow day.

Resistance Levels

2.1148 - Nov 9th High
2.1065 - Nov 7th High
2.0650 - July 24th High
2.0365 - September 12th High
Support Levels

2.0000 - Round number
1.9800 - Round Number
1.9670 - August 17th Low

Attached Images

20080120w12.gif (15.1 KB, 49 views)

EUR maintained its fourth day of downside weakness on Friday closing the week lower for the first time since rallying off the 1.4310 low registered in Dec'07.This is coming on the heels of a failure ahead of its 2007 peak at 1.4967.Althoough the pair held above its daily 50 ema on Thursday and Friday, with no signs of any strength on the part of price action and a continued bearish outlook from both the daily and weekly momentum indicators, risk continues to point to the downside targeting its Jan 01'08 low/.618 Ret (1.4310-1.4921 rally) at 1.4577/45 initially ahead of the 1.4310 level, its Dec 20'07 low. If this significant support level is taken out then its potential double top chart pattern visible on the daily chart will be validated bringing further weakness towards the 1.4278 area, its Sept 28'07 high and beyond. On the other hand, nearby resistance is seen at the 1.4751/52 zone, its Nov 09'07/Dec 11'07 followed by the 1.4823 level, its Jan 04'08 high. Breaking and turning above there will leave the pair aiming at its psycho level at 1.5000 then the 1.5155 level, its 1.618 Fib Ext.On the whole, as long as the pair maintains below the 1.4751/52 zone, nearer to shorter term outlook continues to point lower.

Directional Bias:

Nearer Term -Bearish
Short Term -Mixed
Medium Term -Bullish
Performance in %:

Past Week: +1.04%
Past Month: -0.32%
Past Quarter: +2.20%
Year-To-Date: +0.24%
Weekly Range:

High -1.4922
Low -1.4589

Attached Images

20080120w11.gif (15.9 KB, 45 views)