Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Maji
In order to check the validity of 1 by 1 lot of hedge, I created a spreadsheet to see what happens at the end of each day. I see from my numbers that the hedge does not hold. Check out the spreadsheet and see what I mean.
There is a missing ingredient and I think that is volatility.
|
If you put in the spreadsheet the following numbers:
K2=1
J2=B5 or B4 (the EURUSD value 1.2746)
I2=C5/100 or C4/100 (the USDJPY/100 value 1.0606)
then you get the results you want. In fact after each day the value shift a little bid, because the relations between EUR, USd and JPY change a little bit.
With these pip-values you can determine the number of lots you have to put in each currencypair. With a demo at OANDA, you can do that calculation and test the hedge for some days.
An little explanation:
Suppose the EURUSD is 1.2500, USDJPY is 120.00 and EURJPY is 150.00. Now suppose the EURUSD stays the same for a day. Then we know that for each EURJPY-pip the USDJPY-pip has to move 1.25 pips the other way to keep everything constant. Just because the EUR is 1.25*USD. With the same way of reasoning you can see that a EURUSD-pip has to be 1.20 times the EURJPY-pip.
I don't know if I ruined your idea. I haven't done the calculation with the new values. As I wrote earlier, it is a good idea, but in my opinion too good to be true. I doubt if the poeple from IBFX give away so much money for free. However by buying/selling the currencypairs at different brokers (some who swap, others who don't swap), it could be done. If that's possible, please inform me, because I like free money
