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  #3281 (permalink)  
Old 01-16-2008, 08:22 AM
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Worst Case Scenario

I not sure if someone has already done this.

I'm attaching a simple Excel spreadsheet that calculates a worst case scenario for the 10p3v0.02 EA. In this scenario, a steep drop in the market occurs with no recovery along the way. When this happens, the martingale methodology fail to work. Using the settings from 10p3v0.02, I simulate a condition where the market will continue to drop until a stop loss is triggered. Thus it will then calculate the total loss that has been incurred.

The spreadsheet also gives you a guide on how deep you are protected against a massive pip drop. For example, if your MaxTrades=10 and Pips=10, then you are basically protected from a 100 pip drop, pertaining you have enough capital to continue opening trades until the 10th level, of course.

I will write another Excel spreadsheet to calculate how much capital is needed to for each MaxTrades, Pips, and InitialStop setting. But first I need to understand what leverage is and how the broker calculates free margin.
Attached Files
File Type: zip 10p3v0.02 Max Loss Calc.zip (5.9 KB, 154 views)
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  #3282 (permalink)  
Old 01-16-2008, 10:46 AM
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It is my statement.
I am forward testing 11 pairs in one Metatrader with this EA.
Settings were posted few pages back on this thread.

10point3.gif
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File Type: htm 10point3.htm (126.9 KB, 82 views)
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  #3283 (permalink)  
Old 01-16-2008, 11:17 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by azmel View Post
Hi everyone!

I just started Forex this year and have been reading this thread ever since. I'm just at post #100 so I have a lot of catching up to do Occassionaly, I browsed through the last few post just to update myself of what's going on.

John, amazing results on your tests! I am quite amazed on how you managed to open a 2.43 lot with such a small capital. I would imagine on a EURUSD pair, you would need a Free Margin of around 3,600 to do that. What is the leverage that you are given?

I am quite nervous with your settings of Pips=5 and Multiplier=3. This is because last night, there was a pip drop of 60 pips in the EURUSD pair. I would imagine the EA would need to open 12 levels for this! But obviously, looking at your tests, this turn out otherwise. I guess a slight movement in the other direction is enough to close the whole trade group. Amazing. Dangerous, but still amazing.

I have been forward testing the original 10points_3 ver 0.02 for a couple of weeks with the following settings: MaxTrades=5, Pips=15, Lots=0.01, with a starting capital of 400. Unfortunately, when the drop goes more than 60 pips, the EA couldn't open a 5th trade at 0.16 lot because of insufficient funds [Not enough money!]. So how did your broker allow you to open a 2.43 lot with account balance of 140?

Anyway, a newbie question: When you open a live account, what is the typical leverage that the broker gives? I live in the UK and I wanted a micro account, so the obvious choice would be Alpari UK. Anyone has this account?

Thanks, everyone!
The leverage is standard for IBFX 1:200 on micro account. For your information, when you see "EURUSDm" instead of "EURUSD", it has the "m" at the back of each currency pair. This is a special symbol for Interbankfx NANO account(micro mini account). The 0.01 lot here in IBFX NANO means 1cent/pip. 1.00 lot means 1 dollar/pip instead of 10 compare to other broker.

Read the instruction in the code. For your account settings, if you trade with North Finance/ MiG/ FIBO Group type of broker, you'll need to set AccountType=0; for FXDD, Velocity set AccountType=1, and finally AccountType=2 only applicable for InterbankFX. I'm not sure whether Alpari also offer micro mini account. You can clarify with them and ask them whether their lot size of 0.01 equavelant to 1cent/pip in EURUSD.

The EA is made to double or blow up the account. No doubt its dangerous. Thats why I made a post few page ago. If you have extra money to pull some high risk stunt, this is a good candidate to go with. High risk/high return! If you happened to double the account, withdraw it and play it safe.

Regards

David

p/s: You get a margin call probably because you set the Pips=15. Bigger pip step(stacking orders interval) doesn't mean you're safer. When you set a wider pipstep, simultaneously you'll need a higher retracement to close off all the trades. John got out of the catch because his pipstep is 6. While market retraced 4pips, he managed to close off everything. Hope this help.
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Last edited by davidke20; 01-16-2008 at 11:20 AM.
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  #3284 (permalink)  
Old 01-16-2008, 11:22 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by newdigital View Post
It is my statement.
I am forward testing 11 pairs in one Metatrader with this EA.
Settings were posted few pages back on this thread.

Attachment 51993
WTF?! Multiplier set to 4?! You're 1 daring man. Wish you luck.

Regards

David
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  #3285 (permalink)  
Old 01-16-2008, 11:30 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by davidke20 View Post
WTF?! Multiplier set to 4?! You're 1 daring man. Wish you luck.

Regards

David
Not 4.
Multiplier = 2.
Timeframe H1.
Initial demo deposit 5,000.
Lot size = 0.01.
Alpari broker.
Leverage 1:100.

Settings is on this post http://www.forex-tsd.com/177588-post3257.html
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  #3286 (permalink)  
Old 01-16-2008, 11:33 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by newdigital View Post
Not 4.
Multiplier = 2.
Timeframe H1.
Initial demo deposit 5,000.
Lot size = 0.01.
Alpari broker.
Leverage 1:100.

Settings is on this post http://www.forex-tsd.com/177588-post3257.html
You better check your setting on USDJPY and USDCAD if you're not intended to use Multiplier=4.

Regards

David
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  #3287 (permalink)  
Old 01-16-2008, 12:10 PM
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hi there

i´am think this thread is very interested, but for me it´s impossible to get the best information in this thread to use this EA


so anybody can tell me, which SET and which EA is the optimum for EUR/USD and which timeframe


my balance to trade is 7800$


thanks for your help
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  #3288 (permalink)  
Old 01-16-2008, 12:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by davidke20 View Post
You better check your setting on USDJPY and USDCAD if you're not intended to use Multiplier=4.

Regards

David
It was 2 (in the settings).
It was duplicated trades because of 2 decktop connection to the server with same metatrader opened.

Last edited by newdigital; 01-16-2008 at 12:41 PM.
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  #3289 (permalink)  
Old 01-16-2008, 12:36 PM
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Thanks David for the clarification.

I have checked with Alpari. They do trade 0.01 Lots but the price per pip is 10 cents. So it is indeed a micro account but it is not a nano account. The leveage is 1:100 (1%) so that explains why I can't open a trade with 0.16 lot.

I went throught InterbankFX website today but can't find how to open a nano account. All I can see are options to open a standard or mini account only. How do you open a nano account with InterbankFX BTW? Perhaps this has been pointed out somewhere in the forum, and if does, grateful if you could point the link.

I understand the relevance of the Pips setting now. Last week, I forward-tested the EA on different Pip settings to see the performance of the EA on the market. You are right when you say a higher Pip value will need a bigger effort for the last trade to close with profit, covering the losses of all the smaller trades before it.

A small Pip value is preferable in this instance, but on the hand, a smaller Pip value will cause the trades to open up very-very quickly if the market moves against you, and you are stuck if you are out of cash, and not being able to open any more trades. At this stage you just hope the last trade opened will be enough to get you back into profit.

However, if the last trade open is still isn't enough, then you will looking at a prospect loss.

Perhaps one way to make sure your account doesn't get wiped out is by playing around with MaxTrades (to the highest level your account can afford), smallest Pips and also a smaller InitialStop. This will protect your account to some level but you tend to loose out because the EA will give up too easily when the market drops. If you have a bigger InitialStop, meaning you give some room for your EA to recover back, then the risk of it not recovering at all will also be present, and if that happens, your loss will be greater.

Very interesting EA! Will need to study and observe more, definitely.

Last edited by azmel; 01-16-2008 at 12:39 PM.
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  #3290 (permalink)  
Old 01-16-2008, 02:01 PM
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Information

Quote:
Originally Posted by income88 View Post
hi yeoeleven,

can i know how many pair u set up for this account?
Do u run this EA 24/5 or what?

thanks
I only am using EURUSD on this forward test which I believe is the safest pair but with enough volatility to generate profit.

Yes I do trade all my forward testing and live accounts continuously whilst my broker (IBFX) is open.

So you can see that my testing since 26th November has been continuous and hands free.

John
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