I looked your first thread:
"Some of the good experts I have seen on TSD were the
"FiFtHeLeMeNt Blessing EA" another one is the "V1andV2 Hedged EA” and maybe the “10point3
Several attempt has been made to lower the draw down, but none has succeeded."
You made a point.
I'm using 5 different EA's, 5 different TFs,, 5 different strategies...
Scalper on M1, EMA Cross on M5, etc...
Five for one...
Bongo

You must sell your soul to the FX gods if you want to be profitable. That's FX 101.

FerruFx

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Hi,

I don't agree with the basic idea of Minime that trading virtually first will increase chances. I studied this method extensively on the "roulette" of a casino.
Let's say that your naked underlying trading system makes 60% profitable trades and we take a sample of 1000 trades.
Direct winners will than happen 600 trades out of 1000 trades
1 loser followed by a winner 240 trades (theoretically 240 of the remaining 400)
2 losers in a row followed by a winner :96 trades
3 losers in a row followed by a winner: 38 trades
4 losers in a row followed by a winner: 16 trades

What you actually do by waiting till 4 losers in a row already happened and only than starting to trade is NOT INCREASE YOUR CHANCE OF WINNING. Your chances to win are still the same with the initial 1st trade. You simply significantly reduce the probability of trading (and therefore of losing) but if you count the amount of losers/1000 trades (token in to account the increased lot size and ditto increased lose size) it will be the same ratio as without the martingale (trading the naked strategy). We must consider here only the trades that you actualy trade and not the trades that the underlying strategy should have token without the martingale+"Minime chance increaser".

For a trader it give however the impression that he turned a losing strategy in to a "winner only strategy", because the martingale postpones the loser. So in the short time frame of 6 months for example you see only winners. But whatever you try: Decreasing the number of trades (and thereby also profit) or increasing the number of steps the martingale makes: The result will never be better than your original strategy. The eventual and sooner or (very much) later BIG LOSER will come and it will kill your account.

Sorry to spoil the fun.

Pipperoni ,

thanks a lot for your comments , you didn't spoil the fun at all, sometimes I am right other times I am wrong, your comments are valid

I will give you an example of the method and you can check it out on an expert, although this method does reduce the number of trades which means reduce the number of losses , it also increase the chances of winning.

the idea of a Martingle depends on the price pull back for 37 pips or x amount of pips , now lets say we skip the first 4th trades and lets say the distance between each trade is 40 pips

so if we have a straight move 4x40 = 160 pips " lets forget the spread now " , after that we start with a counter trend entry so if it was a long move we go short, now look at the history and tell me how many times the EURUSD has moved 160 pips and didn't give back 20-40pips

the idea in simple words is to enter counter the trend at big moves, and this is part of the forex behavior

Personally I wait after the NFP news and I enter counter the trend the next day , and I always manage to make safe amount of pips.

So skip the roulette, check the EURUSD history , I hope this will help

Regards
Alan

I am trying to make a deal with him " its only one God "

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Pipperoni ,

I just wanted to add that at the 4th level the martingle starts,

This is an example of a live trade on USDJAP

its based on the previous move ... I have something also for EURUSD and GBPUSD and the winning ratio is higher even though I am not using any martingle yet , all I am doing is to enter counter the big moves

Attached Images

example.gif (42.1 KB, 244 views)

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MiniMe,
I see what you mean. You do not simply use the same criteria to enter a string of doubling up trades. By waiting, you also increase the potential for a correction to happen. I will think more about it in the coming days.

The problem with this sort of, let me call it,"correction trading" as I studied it in the past, is that the correction indeed always happens, but ...
I often failed to catch the top of the wave. In your USDJPY example a correction of 100 pips happened. But because you were in to low with your sell order, you could not exit your order yet. This scenario made me often miscatch my Profit targets of an important correction, only to see the main trend starting again and my martingale 10point3 blowing up my (demo)account.
So be careful! The correction always happens, but this does not guaranty you a profit, imho.

Just wondering if anyone has tried martingaling two anti-correllated pairs simultaneously, the main requirement being that they must always have opposites sides of the trade. (thus providing a hedging benefit) When one pair closes out in profit, this pairs 'series' is immediately restarted, but only with the same trade direction, at least until the other pair closes its series in profit. This way, all open trades are always hedged to some degree and profit is considerably more then when trading just one pair. The only problem I can foresee (apart from programming the damn thing!) are instances there a high number of trades per side are opened, and closing the 'winning' side would not be possible, because with the hedging aspect removed, a margin-call could immediately follow. Just musing...

I have coded a corrolated expert but not with martingle , the whole thing is profitable but may takes ages to close the trade

If you plan for corrolated martingle what would be the entry signal ? since they are corrolated then we have a couple of options

1- to trade one side of the pairs and as soon as it goes into martingle mode we start the corrolation
2- start the corrolation form the begining , but what would be the trigger logic ?

BTW the lot size will be different if we use EURUSD and USDCHF as the EURUSD pip value is more, but keep in mind that USDCHF has more range .... so the corrolation martingle may not be 100%

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“Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing”
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You mean the god with a pitch fork don't you! I personally would rather give my soul to the one that has the peril gate entrance to His Kingdom, and everlasting life - Which I have already!