Hi Derk, as far as input on EA settings, I will tell you what I have found that seems to have the best success. I have been using the EA for entry/exit as well as manual trading for exit only. Last week I gained > 300 pips and today I am up 400 with approx 200 locked in. I have started to only trade in the direction of the upper time frame if it is trending. I determine if there is a trend by looking at the HAclose; example, if the HAclose has crossed the lower PAC on the daily chart, then I set up for short on the 4 hr, If the HAclose has crossed the upper PAC on the 4hr, then I setup to go long on the hourly. This seems to work well but I am still testing this.

As far as settings, I use initial stop at the opposite PAC. My stop type is 4 with a trailing stop of approx 75 on the 4hr and 40 on the hourly. I have started using the TDI exit that exits only when the grn crosses the red. I also set a limit of 100 pipis or so to catch frequent spikes.

I am not suggesting an update to your EA, just FYI. I do think that A good way to determine if a trend exits is by looking at the HAclose of the upper time frame, I will keep you posted on how it goes. thx mike

Something's not working properly here. It seems as if the trades are bothe entering and exiting far too late. Any ideas as to why this is happening?

autumn

Attached Images

eurgbp22jan-am.gif (34.6 KB, 733 views)

NonDisclosure:

Thanks, I'll look into it, but I suspect it will not do: I am looking at test trades right now where it went long, would have easily got my 50 pip TP, and then continued up where it got in again (twice) more than 50 away. I want something that is better at detecting start to end of a run.


Silver:

Hi! Glad you wrote. I need to work with you to try to get that fixed. Write me at derkwehler@gmail.com


Autumn:
(Exiting and re-entering)
Yes and no: Refining the exits (i.e. getting it to a point where it could consistently exit at 80+% optimum) would be wonderful, but I do not have any ideas yet on how to accomplish this, so for those like me who wish to try just taking a more humble profit on each fresh entry, I wanted to be able to detect those.

(More on Exits)
If you feel these are promising, I am certainly willing to look at adding them in to test. Can you post a screen shot or a description of what you think I should look for with these indicators?

(Trade problems)
Been seeing this a lot lately. But technically, that chart doesn't necessarily look wrong. If you have it set up to exit on opposite PAC, then that looks like what it is doing. If you had some kind of TP or trail in there that wasn't hitting, look at your experts tab... I left mine running and it was completely failing to move the SL along. There are a bunch of messages in the tab about "IsConnected() == false", which was clearly NOT the case. So now I am wondering if MT4 is reporting that incorrectly which is making my OrderReliable lib fail. Will look into this ASAP.


Mike:

Thanks! You seem to be doing best with the system in general, so I appreciate your input. If it keeps working, I can certainly make your TDI change permanent.

Thanks Derk,
It seems to me that both the entries and exits are coming late, but one may be a result of the other. Anyway, here are the settings I was using. Only the trail is following the opposite PAC, so I don't see why exits should come so late.

Exits are probably the hardest thing to deal with in EAs, and unfortunately Malone does not help much here. He always says "consider an exit when..." without giving a firm and hard rule, and it may be difficult to formulate such a thing.

I will give it a bit more thought and see what I can come up with.

autumn

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SynergyExits.png (13.1 KB, 719 views)

Derk,

Perhaps the attached log file will help you identify some of the problems

autumn

Attached Files

SYNERGYlOG.txt (64.6 KB, 53 views)

Autumn:

Yes, I suppose one could say the entries are a bit late, but that is part of the nature of the system: it waits until several things line up to signal (notably the TDI), and that helps to avoid false signals, but of course comes with the price of being delayed.

That is why I focus on the GBPJPY; there are so many pips in the moves that even a "late" signal can pretty consistently get 50-100 pips.

Part of me has wanted to give up on this whole EA/system for a while but, perhaps because I have put a lot of work into it, I am hesitant to do so. Some part of me feels there is a way to get pretty regular profits out if it --maybe even just with the present feature set, but I have to find the right settings. (Of course I also have to get some of the irritating bugs out, but I assume I will find them all eventually).

There are lots of runs that are good for three or four hundred pips, but by the time it reverses to the opp PAC, it has given 200 back, and that is not acceptable in light of the fact that some trades will just be straight-up losers. So I figure either we need to find a much better exit that improves it a great deal, or perhaps go back to what I am trying now (take 50-100 and just quit, hoping that it will make the W/L percentage much higher).

Thank you for your continued consideration.

-Derk

I know the feeling, as I have stared long and hard at charts and often wondered if anything solid would ever come of it. Here are a few thoughts on possible modifications to the EA.

Synergy at its core is an RSI on which 3 moving averages are applied, and a the HA (really a 1 period moving average of typical price) plus PAC. Trades occur on an HA breakout from the PAC, confirmed by alignment of the 3 moving averages. Nothing theoretically wrong with it, and it stands up to visual scrutiny.

Attached is a chart showing HA, PAC, plus an Alligator. At the bottom, a 13 period RSI and 2 moving averages (red is slow-2, blue is fast-7) on it, the same as Synergy. Also on the chart are 13 period Force (with 3 and 13 period EMAs), Stochastics (13 period+5period MA, 12 period smoothing), Standard Deviation 8 period, and DeMarker (13 period, plus 8 and 3 period SMMAs). I have used SMMA on the RSI because I like to cut out some of the chop whenever possible; that is the idea behind the MAs.

Note that the period and type of the MAs can be changed at will. For optimization you would want to be able to vary these parameters, especially for the RSI, as the 2-7 combo is not necessarily ideal for all conditions or pairs. Note also that Stochastic provides an added smoothing that puts the crossovers and changes of direction in close relation to what is happening with the Alligator or HA-PAC indicator.

Standard Deviation can be used to confirm an entry (when STDev rising and above a certain value or in a certain range of values). Force is also a potentially good confirmation because it incorporates volume. DeMarker behaves similarly to the Stochastics, and because it is not collinear could also provide a good confirmation. Any of the indicators could be used to restrict entries to overbought/oversold conditions by setting a max or min level, e.g., only enter short when Stochastic above 60.

If further confirmation is required, a 3rd moving average can be added to any of the oscillator MAs, as Malone has done with the RSI. I feel that this is not necessary, however. I would also remove the < or> 50 condition, as it may eliminate entries in overbought/oversold conditions.

Exits can be controlled by noting change of direction of the blue line in one or more oscillators, and confirming with a downturn in the Standard Deviation.

Although I know that people like HA for its visual appeal, I tend to prefer Alligator using EMAs because the fast/slow crossover is very responsive. There is a danger that wiggle could trigger trades that are not wanted, however.

All moving average periods are built on Fibonacci numbers, i.e., on the sequence 2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55. This provides a natural order of magnitude in intervals between MA periods.

A system built on, say 3 or 4 entry signals and 2 or 3 exit signals, with parameter optimization (not just ON/OFF settings) could be both backtested and forward tested quickly and efficiently.

autumn

Attached Images

oscillators.gif (43.0 KB, 674 views)

Ideally, you would not want to use either the Alligator or the HA-PAC system, and trade only on the oscillators.

autumn

Thanks. Mostly "Invalid Price" errors, which seems to be what a lot are getting. I'll track it down....

-Derk

Another Observation:

One thing I have noticed is that if the green RSI crosses the red MA and there is a 'large' distance for the green to cover before it crosses the yellow, a bad trade may occur. Large would be 20 units or so. Also seems like if the red and yellow are very close (almost overlayed) and the green crosses through both at nearly the same time, a good trade is likely. Not sure how consistant this is, just something to watch for and possibly make it a filter. thx mike