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  #281 (permalink)  
Old 07-03-2009, 08:36 AM
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So, I am desribing here my morning.
When no any trade is open and I need to decide - will I trade today or not.

-------

After that I look at Ichimoku chart. You can use standard Ichimoku indicator. The only you need is to change the color of Chinkou Span line from green to white in the indicator's settings (input).

As I understand USDCHF as a leading pair for EURUSD/USDCHF combination so I am looking for USDCHF Ichimoku chart H4 first:

ichimokuh4_0306_usdchf.jpg

We see the following:

- price is inside the cloud. Flat or choppy market.
- cloud is very thin so this market condition can be changed in any doirection any time.
- AbsoluteStrengh indicator - flat on H4: uptrend was finished but correction was not started yet. We know that after uptrend we must have correction, right? We can not receive downtrend after uptrend. It is always correction between uptrend and downtrend.
- TrendStrenght and MaksiGen trend line - uptrend.

----------

Actions.

PT indicator (M5 timeframe on "ready to go" condition). It may be breakout today.

Chinkou Span line (white line on H4 timeframe) is crossing the price on historical data. If this line crosses the price on close bar - it will be good downtrend with possible take profit as 1.0821 (border of the cloud on H4 Ichimoku chart, next take profit level as 1.0818 (M5 chart MaksiGen indicator's lines), next take profit as 1.0791 and 1.0739 (MaksiGen indicator's support/resistance lines on H4 Ichimoku chart.

Now price is near to be 1.0836.
And 1.0821 is just few pips away ...
So I am not sure that I will trade today ...
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  #282 (permalink)  
Old 07-03-2009, 08:41 AM
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If the price will continue uptrend so there are some possible take profit levels and stop loss levels as the lines of MaksiGen indicators on M5 or H4 timeframes, or as the borders of the cloud on H4 timeframe.

Never trade without stop loss.
Because trading breakout is very very difficult and risky., More difficult that normal signal sistem to trade.
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  #283 (permalink)  
Old 07-03-2009, 08:44 AM
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It is similar situation with EURUSD H4 Ichimoku.

ichimokuh4_0306_eurusd.jpg

The only I see - Chinkou Span line can cross the price for USDCHF first and than - price for EURUSD. Because this line is just near USDCHF price and we need 1 bar to know exactly. And 1 bar on H4 is 4 hours.

And we need few bars to know the situation exactly on EURUSD (we see where the white line and where the pric as we are talking about the crossing on close bar).
2 bars on H4 is 8 hours.
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  #284 (permalink)  
Old 07-03-2009, 08:55 AM
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After that I do the same with the pair I am trading.
H4/D1 Ichmoku chart.
You can use standard Ichimoku indicator with default settings. Just change the color of green line to be white line in indicator's input.

----------

After that I will write everything on the paper.
And after that I will use M5 channel system only:

I will have my analysis on H4/D1 on the paper, and I will have Metatrader with M5 chats only with indicator (indicators an templates - see the link on the first post of this thread).

So, I will not trade today.

I am doing it every morning when wake up.
In every market day.

--------

If you are not comfortable with Ichimoku indicator so you can use 6 SMA indicators (there is thread on the forum) or digital filters (good choice as well), or some EMA crossing and so on. MACD for example, or 3 or 4 Stochastic indicators with different settings in the same way as I am using it in asctrend system ...

It is strongly recommended to privide this kind of analysis every morning especially if we are using this M5 Channel system with 6 indicators attached on the chart, and 3 of them only are not re-painted: MaksiGen Channel, Kaufman AMA signal and RSI filter.
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  #285 (permalink)  
Old 07-03-2009, 09:06 AM
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Mistakes.

My mistakes. And I think - many people can do same mistakes.

- trade without stop loss.
It is mistake. In this kind of breakout system - it is very risky to trade without stop loss.
Always place stop loss.

- aftraid to make a loss.
It is mistake. Do not be affraid when your trade had stop loss. Do not affraid for losses.

- "I want to trade every day" case. I call it "I want to trade" disaster. It means: I am sitting looking on the chart ...1 hour, 2 hour ... and than I started to think: "many people are openning and closing the orders already and made good money but what I am doing?! Well, let's open the order! I want to trade every day!".
It is disaster. Illness.

- trade without simple analysis concerning what happened with the market/price when I slept.
It is mistake.
Always make any simple analysis before openning the trade.
It is the same as you are going by long-distance train and when you wake up in the morning so the first question is "where I am? Which city? Which country? Is it day or night now? 6 am or 6 pm?"
If we are making simple analysis so we will know what the price did before we opened Metatrader in the morning.

----------

That's all news.
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  #286 (permalink)  
Old 07-03-2009, 06:48 PM
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thanks for your sharing...
by the way, what's the name of your current trading system, it looks so complicated...
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  #287 (permalink)  
Old 07-03-2009, 07:03 PM
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Channel Trading system for M5 timeframe.
http://www.forex-tsd.com/287242-post255.html
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  #288 (permalink)  
Old 07-03-2009, 11:44 PM
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thanks! well trading~
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  #289 (permalink)  
Old 07-04-2009, 12:48 AM
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On the image 1 is H1 timeframe. We are waiting for the price to touch the border of the channel (little more up should be) to go down with the signal from zigzag and red color of 3Line_Break indicator. Flat. But it may be in the evening only (if any).
================================================== =

and about these appeared in the beginning part, i still could not make it clear on two things:
1)what is the signal from zigzag, those arrows?
2)after the appearance of the touch between the price and the border of the channel, comming of a bar, (candlestick colored in red or blue), in another color is also necessary, not only a change of price in an opposite direction. my understanding is correct or not.
thanks againg!
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  #290 (permalink)  
Old 07-04-2009, 10:59 AM
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This post?
It is trading on the direction of the channel from one border of the channel to the other one.

For example - channel is on downtrend so we are trading from upper border of the channel looking for sell order.
When to open this order?
Usually the price touches the border 2 times. Same with support/resistanc trading.
Price go up (channel is on downtrend) and touch the border ... retrace ... touch the second time ... retrace ... touch the 3rd time - retrace ... and we are waiting for 3Line_Break indicator to change the color of the candle to red (on closed/previous bar).
Other indicators are confirmational one.
Stop loss value is somewhere outside the channel border.
Take profit value?
Some people are placing it somewgere in the midle of the channel, the other people - somewhere near the opposite border of the channel ... depends on risk and initial deposit size.
It is how to trade on the direction on the channel.

H4 timeframe is much more good for this system.

There are the other way of trading: on breakout of the border of the channel. very profitable but ot may be from 0 to 1 trades in a month, and it is very difficult style of trading.

I prefer to trade between the borders and H4 timeframe to have few trades in a month. And USDCHF may be good pair for that.
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