Hi evereybody,

I decided to do some Hurst like analysis with centered smas,and see what happens...

FIRST CONCLUSION :See pics 1 and 2

It seems to me that we will reach a temporary top in the 1.9693+or- 39 pips..
so ,the expected reversal area is 1.9655/1.9735 approx..and this reversal should be located,in time since a few hours ago to 16 Jan at 11:00 AM GMT..
SO,WE ARE IN A POTENTIAL REVERSAL AREA,AT THIS MOMENT..

SECOND CONCLUSION : See pic3

It seems to me that the above mentioned potential reversal has the possibility to be very short..100/200 pips..WHY?
Because if the last centered sma crosses the other smas in the 1.9601/1.9605Area,THEN we will have to extrapolate from 1.9260 to 1.9605 to 1.9751+ or-49pips..so,let`s say in the 1.9700 to 1.9800 area we have our target range..and the potential time range is from this Thursday to(the pic marks Saturday,so let`s say)Monday..we will see..the more time passes the more information we have regarding this latest centered sma.

THIRD CONCLUSION:

This only an analysis,I do not trade on it,but I am mentally positioning for this kind of situation,and if my hard indicators confirm,I will trade it.

Hope that doing this kind of analysis has helped you in relation to how to use Hurst`s methods.
In the first pic you will see that I directly extrapolate the sma to predict the crossing point,I used to apply polinomial fittings(in excel ¡¡¡) to do so,but I have found that is more practical to do by line projection,it also helps knowing that usually the croos is either at the other 2 smas crossing,or approximately at the middle ..if there are 2 near crosses by the short centered smas..as it happens.

Regards
Simba

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Hi everybody,

Well,the first conclusion of my previous post starts materializing itself-Top at 1.9695+-39pips,before today 11:00GMT(Hope it continues.. )see pic1..now with the support of Hard signals,specifically the Chandelier indicator..see pic2..WE have had a top at 1.9706 at approx 09:30 GMT

Let`s see what happens and learn from it.My expectation is that if,conclusions 1 and 2 of the previous posts are going to be both right,the GBPUSD decline could probably find support in the 1.9460/1.9555 area..see pic 1 again and will see why..of course,the most important thing to monitor,besides managing our profits,is the behaviour of the Aqua centered sma

By the way,is anybody still interested in this thread? Sometimes I get the feling that I am posting to myself..for posterity perhaps

Comments,questions,etc will be very interesting to have..Or are you making so much money with the ConMan that you do not have time to spare for the "old" Hurst based analysis ??

Will continue
Simba

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Hi Simba.

I'm actively using your thread so don't quit on me now.

I'm looking at the influance of the Dow and I'm am seeing alott of similarities here.

Keep safe

The Source

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the source

Hi thesource,
Thanks for posting..I am not alone in the desert

I presume you are referring to the Hurst method,not the SimbaConMan..if you are referring to the later,I will be mildly astonished,I believe everything is interrelated..but for a cyclic composite model of Gbpusd to model the DOW..Wow

Yes there are a lot of similariteies,Hurst developed his system for stocks,and it can be applied to any liquid market,indexes,currencies,metals,energies,bonds...
It can be interesting for you,my friend,if you can download your data into the digital filter generator,to make a cyclic analysis of the Dow..it will help you considerably.

Regards
Simba

Simba,

I am enjoying Your threads and I think, many others do enjoy it, too.
Regards, thanks

KptMisiu

Hi Simba.

I am actually using the Simba Con Man to analise correlation between the DJIA and the EUR/USD.

So far it looks like a winner.

But I want to stick it out for another month or so to get a clear view on the movement. I don't really trust back testing.

I popped the indicator over to a CFD trader working stictly on DOW and he said that it opens new horizons for him. I will let you know of the progress over time. I'm only working it on the Day charts so I don't want to get anyone over exited just yet.

Hope you had a great trading day.

Safe Trades

The Source

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Man, what a great system. You guys are in good hands with 'ol Simba.

Simba - received your PM. I'll give you shout!

Hi Bluto,

Thanks for your kind comments.
Eagerly waiting for your shouts..

Kindest Regards
Simba

Hi thesource,

Interesting idea,please,if feasible ,keep us updated on the works of SimbaConMan for the Dow..market interrelationship may be even higher that I thought...

Regards
Simba

Hi Simba

I will do so.

I have a meeting with the CFD Trader this Friday to discuss his research. We only started the live research this middle last week.

Trying to find a chain Reaction in the Organized Chaos. Got the idea from a friend who believes the Lotto results are based on it. We spend long hours discussing the scenarios.

I thinks this is more achievabe that prediction Lotto numbers LOL

Keep safe.

The Source

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Safe Trades

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