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This is not a magic indicator,it is just something that can skew in your favour the probabilities that you obtain from your usual trading techniques,as I explained in previous posts.
As an example,if you run it -DO IT ONLY FOR DAILY PERIODS-for GBPUSD,it will tell you that inmediate expectation,since 15Dec is downtrend,but,as I explained,If a nonlagma,Satl,whatever trendfilter method I use,tells me to go long,I will go long.
It has been designed from the cyclic model of daily GBPUSD,and since there is a very high correlation for this pair with bothEURUSD and USDCHF(inverse correlation for this latest ),you can see(Run the indicatorin 3 daily charts GBPUSD,EURUSD,USDCHF) that since 14/15 December 2006,the indicator is telling us that expection is USD UP-European currencies DOWN..and I think,knowing this with 85% probability can help us a lot
Simba,
I am getting periods slightly different from those that you have posted. I did an analisys from the middle of November to December 13 on the H1 GBPUSD chart, and it could only confirm the 35 and 51 periods. The next peak seems to be somewhere near 85. Am I right in using a period as long as a month to determine the peak values? I am not sure that I am looking for what I should be..
Thank you for all the invaluable knowledge that you have shared with us!
Hi,
If you are referring to some of the pics I posted with hourly charts,I used 35 del 17,69 del34,103 del51,205 del102.
If you are referring to the cyclic model of GBPUSD for 1h..I do not use it,too unreliable for my taste,I use the daily cycles,those that I have been able to test for high Bartels,and I presume,that since markets are fractal,they will be more or less reliable on lower timeframes..my personalexperience confirms this..and also that you can go up to the weekly tf with good results too...
But my personal experience has taught me to avoid using the Hurst method exclusively on 1H,you need ,at the minimum,the 4H TF,and then you can go down for refining your entry..also using 4H as the base can be very dangerous in trending periods like the one from beginning April to mid May..you run the risk of anticipating the top,by several figures...AND THIS IS WHERE USING THE SimbaConMan WILL GIVE YOU THE EDGE,KEEPING YOU SAFE.
I do not use(anymore) the Hurst smas for trading,I use them only as an additional view to have in the back of my mind.What I use for trading is his methodology,but instead of smas,I use digitalfilters(usually SATL),and,since delay is minimal,I do not need to center them,I can just trade the slope of the SATL.
Hi SIMBA,
is a very good indicator.
Please read the Time series analysis and forecasting
on http://www.gistatgroup.com/cat/
I have this CatSSA.dll and I have a small Delphi program for
generating a forecasting for the price time series.
If you can generate a *.csv file with your indicator
values:
2001.09.07 00:00,1.461
2001.09.10 00:00,1.4562
2001.09.11 00:00,1.4754
...
we can forecasting this time series
with my small program.
Hi SIMBA,
is a very good indicator.
Please read the Time series analysis and forecasting
on http://www.gistatgroup.com/cat/
I have this CatSSA.dll and I have a small Delphi program for
generating a forecasting for the price time series.
If you can generate a *.csv file with your indicator
values:
2001.09.07 00:00,1.461
2001.09.10 00:00,1.4562
2001.09.11 00:00,1.4754
...
we can forecasting this time series
with my small program.
Best regards,
barnix
Hi Barnix,
Thanks for your kind comment and for the link on Singular Spectrum Analysis..I will check during next week and test its appliability regarding currency pairs forecasting,will post here if interesting.If you can elaborate about your experiences with SSA,it could be very helpful for everybody.
Which .csv time series do you want me to generate with "my indicator values"?
The SimbaConMan values?
The Hurst smas "centered",so as to project them into their "meeting" point?
The closing price of GBPUSD daily(these are the values that you posted in your 3 examples)?
If you are referring to some of the pics I posted with hourly charts,I used 35 del 17,69 del34,103 del51,205 del102.
Thank you for your quick reply. I tried to use the spectral analysis tool, built in the Digital Filter calculator, as you kindly suggested in your previous post. The problem is with the results I got from the calculations - they differ slightly from the periods that you have determined, and so I've reached the conclusion that I am doing a mistake somewhere..
The problem is that I get approx. 85 instead of 103, and cannot see any periods higher than 150 in the result box of the spectral analysis tool, which is probably due to wrong settings.. My question is about the amount of data that one should feed to the analysis tool in order to determine the most accurate and up-to-date periods, as I suppose that they vary in time. Any help? Thanks in advance!
interesting work simba...
have you mad a manual for the system, including everything from installing onto the platform into which currency to use with and how..or would you like someone to help with that?
I know this is a ridicoulous question. But for some reason I can not get the indicator to load. I pasted in my indicator folder on three different instances on mt4 and I close and reopen my platform and it is not there. I then go back and look in my indicator file and the file is not even there. any suggestions. Market Cycles has always interested my and simba I actually love the way you teach. Keep it comin.
Thanks in advance.
I know this is a ridicoulous question. But for some reason I can not get the indicator to load. I pasted in my indicator folder on three different instances on mt4 and I close and reopen my platform and it is not there. I then go back and look in my indicator file and the file is not even there. any suggestions. Market Cycles has always interested my and simba I actually love the way you teach. Keep it comin.
Thanks in advance.
The indicator is very "heavy",it could create an overload in some(slow,old,already overloaded) systems or with some data providers,but this is extremely unusual,if counted bars are less than 450 then it returns 0.
You should download to MT4/EXPERT/INDICATORS..close/reopen..and it should be there..
Linear Mode
