Comments:


Looks like you are trying to predict...I think it will be more useful just to focus and see if the change in slope in h4 happens with a TL breakout...then just enter with a reasonable target...additionally you could just wait to see if the downward turn in h1 happens(probably after approaching/touching previous highs near 176.39) and apply the same strategy...as it is now,the h1 cycle is still up.

If you look at the h4 chart,the TL has been broken and the cycle has turned(magenta line),as your indicator CLSlope rightly signalled hours ago,so,IMHO the best strategy for H4 will be to enter long on retracements at or near the 2 snakes(171.50/172.00...far away from actual prices) for a Target around 178.00...Additionally,you could wait until a new up cycle is formed in h1 in approx 28 plus hours.

If you want to trade the H1 then you have to wait until you get a clear change in cycle from up to down and then enter short with reasonable targets...you will probably get this signal very soon,since the upmove has been going for 33 hours and the half cycle is just 28 hours....and this has interesting implications for cycle analysis...see below.

Implications:When trend is up ,upswings tend to be longer than expected by half cycle length,downswings tend to be shorter...So,I believe there is very good probability that we have started an uptrend in H4(approx length is 28*4=112 hours)where we will see either a corrective 24 hours move or a range contraction to be followed by an upmove with range expansion on Wedenesday when both h4 and h1 cycles will align up again...Yes,yes,I know...this is predicting,and I am guilty of it ...as long as I just trade what I see and not what I predict(ed) this should be innocuous...on the other side,if what we see on Wednesday is an h4/h1 Cyclic alignment we will be prepared for it.

Attached Images

gbpjpyh4.gif (73.2 KB, 227 views)

__________________
Somos mortales hasta el primer beso..y la segunda copa de vino

Jim,

I'm still trying to define that process myself, and there is a lot of error to account for. Here is basically what i'm doing.

I try to evaluate the higer time frame ( i.e. 1hour or 4 hour) first. In my previous post, i thinkn my projection was too premature (i.e. the cross of the snake lines was still changing and moving higher, taking the projection higher).

When the turn begins, i've found it very risky to enter. Once we establish an up trend as in the 1 hour, we can begin to ESTIMATE where the cross of the MA's would be. This would represent 50% or half of the move (roughly...see Hurst). So, i just draw a fib from the base and have the 50% mark at the cross, then you can project further from that to where 100% would be ( the "profit" target). I'm by no means an expert at this. I'm still trying to learn the nuances of the smaller time frames as well. Each time frame effects each other.

Simba has talked about trend line breaks as well, and that signaling an even "safer" place to enter. Drawing the trend lines is somethign i'd love to be schooled on more.

Hope that helps a bit. Again i am no expert, i just think you have to be constantly evaluating price action to lead you.

Best,

cl

Attached Images

1hour.gif (26.1 KB, 231 views)

Yes i agree. It's easy to learn when you are wrong in public. :-)

cl

Think on my daily chart was to early with my projection(was using resistance from 5 days ago.) due to the fact there was no cross on upturn yet but did hit projection think idea in this case maybe once you cross your trendline enter trade, stay in longterm, wait for cross, make your projection,then place breakeven or start trailing at projected area. Should be no problem after a cross to make a projection then place a breakeven or trailing stop at projection, if the MA's expoliate to make the new cross for instance in gbpusd's(M5) case now won't matter anyway because the new cross will happen forward of the old cross you still have your projected price at least. Could have used this on the M5 projection and still be in the trade.Just an idea!

Attached Images

gbpusdprojectiond1+1.gif (31.9 KB, 232 views)

may be you have it (i didn't saw in attachments list)

btw. interesting - red history line (trace) in Ang's PR2 (check on the tester)

Attached Images

	ang pr.gif (10.7 KB, 202 views)
	ang pr2.gif (11.0 KB, 202 views)

Attached Files

	ang_Fourie(ma)_-_left.mq4 (2.0 KB, 46 views)
	ang_PR_(Din)-v1.mq4 (4.5 KB, 36 views)
	ang_PR_(Din)-v2.mq4 (3.4 KB, 41 views)

I"ve seen this before. How exactly do you interpret the lines?

Interesting the visual tester experience...I have found 2 potential patterns :

1-When price closes above the predicted red line...trend goes up...

2-The predicted red line trend is a very good predictor of Future trend for prices...when the first changes,the second has changed and usually continues in the new direction for enough time to be used profitably.

__________________
Somos mortales hasta el primer beso..y la segunda copa de vino

Price being above and below the red line was the main thing i saw. I figured there was some interpretation of the lines beyond that. Maybe there is....

AS a follow up to our analysis yesterday...the continuation of the 1 hr after a 4 hour standstill has me curious..was caused the continuous charge forward...its probably not a simple explanation...but it the root that the timeframes are out of cycle right now?

what are the settings? I've got this on the chart with the defaoult settings.

Attached Images

eur.gif (18.8 KB, 180 views)

I believe the settings on the chart are for 1 hour. I'm not sure for other time frames. Maybe fxbs has some insight...

cl