Hi Pippt,

Please see above ,in red,my comments
Congratulations for your usdjpy trade....

Simba

Thanks Simba for two incredibly well presented and thought through systems. I am becomming increasingly impressed and my confidence is growing. To learn more I will try a first post of predictions - bear with me guys and girls - my first post here.

On the Simbasystem both SATL and Chand are pointing North

Daily: Simbacon man going down indicating upwards cycle (weekly however is opposite so perhaps the next north move will not be as strong as the previous)

4H: Conman also indicating upwards cycle

1H: Upwards for another 20-25hrs

Hurst: Here I will need some guidance. First on 1H - it appears that the long MAs will be crossed around 9555-9580, indicating a target around 9675.

On 4H, cross is projected around 9600-9625; indicating a target around 9780.

I am currently long from 9555, entered using the other Simbasystem signals. News are out shortly and I guess we will see whether my understanding is valid or not. Its also Friday and we shouldnt expect any major breakouts.

cheers,
IS

Attached Images

	hurst sterling h1.gif (41.9 KB, 346 views)
	hurst sterling h4.gif (17.7 KB, 303 views)
	hurst sterling daily.gif (14.9 KB, 303 views)

Hi IST,

Nice analysis you did,congrats for your trade and as,must be obvious by now,the market has already given you an answer..it is currently at 1.9622

Regarding Hurst projections,there are moments,like this where the situation is unclear..I would say that "probably",based on 15m conman we still have a few hours,probably to the close of this Friday, left of this uptrend leg..price target,I don`t know..probably above 1.9635..but I can not estimate the limit,sometimes it is relatively easy,some others very difficult..the only 2things i can tell you is that having sleeper positions in the week end is extremely dangerous..and that Friday closes can reverse direction in the last hours of trading(last of London,last of NY)

Hope this has been helpful

Simba

Facinated by conman indicator. It seems to capture these 45/90 cycles very well and enables people like me to recognize them much better than by only looking at the naked charts. As everything else of course it is fractal and will naturally point in different directions at different timeframes. As the market moves in waves this isnt necesarrilly an issue - in fact it could be used to further strengthen the method.

For example, when the 1hr and 4hr line up and point in the same direction, there seem to be a significant move coming. In principle I would assume that if a number of timeframes lined up the probability of predicting the direction would increase.

For presentational purposes it could be usefull to have the indicator at different timeframes in the same screen, perhaps even in the same indicator window with different coloured lines. Or maybe it would get to messy.

It could be interesting to test systematically whether the "allignment" of this indicator in different timeframes increases the probability of a particular directional move. I dont seem to be able to access the coding of it - but perhaps someone with better programming skills could have a look at this hypothesis?

Hi IST,

QUOTE " I dont seem to be able to access the coding of it "..well that is because i intentionally posted the .ex4 version instead of the .mq4..and because,if somebody uncodes the .ex4,he/she is not going to understand how the indicator was created,unless very experienced in cycle analysis,so,replication and improvements will be exceptionally difficult,my friend


QUOTE "It could be interesting to test systematically whether the "allignment" of this indicator in different timeframes increases the probability of a particular directional move. "...you can do a 4 screen multimode and check your assumption

QUOTE "For example, when the 1hr and 4hr line up and point in the same direction, there seem to be a significant move coming. In principle I would assume that if a number of timeframes lined up the probability of predicting the direction would increase. "..Yes to first statement..not necessarily so for the second..just 2 tfs and some patience work better than trying to multialign all the tfs,but do yourself a favour and test your assumption and be so kind to post your conclusions,and some screen shot too,so that your contribution is helpful to everybody..if you want

Simba

Attached Files

simbacon_temp.tpl (1.6 KB, 118 views)

Hi Kappari,

I am glad it worked fine at the end
Adding a signal to the code is ,first,not necessary since you can always apply,as you did,a moving average to the indicator..and,second,the SCM is not a mathematical type of indicator,but a "cyclic probabilistic"one,it just tells you where the probabilities are stacked for the next average SCM cycle..it doesn`t mean that the move will start at the beginning of the cycle
as represented by the SCM

Simba

Hi All,and Thanks to Kappari for his kind words..

The really interesting use of Hurst system plus my humble SCM is in these kind of terrorific moves(moves not movies ) like the meltdown of GBPJPY..

So,I have estimated the end of the downmove area...see pic and you will know

Of course,pending confirmation of crossover points in 1h and 4h charts,though 1h looks like a very probable confirmation..

Most important..the best way to destroy an account is to blindly believe these predictions,and motivated by greed,enter in advance of hardconfirmation...the best way to profit from them is to wait,like a hunter,for the move to really develop as/similar to predicted,and then enter with the confirmation of a hard and safe indicator..like the 1h chandelier stops switching to uptrend,for example..

Let`s see what happens..will update

Simba

Attached Images

interesting30m.gif (30.4 KB, 421 views)

I've been looking closely at your system and they seem very promising. I see a lot of trends that are to follow. However.. I've been looking and looking and can't figure where the Simba Con Man is accessible? I got your other system for GBP/USD but wheres the Con man? I want to do some of my own research on how your system works on that and of course apply my knowledge in these posts! Thanks!